Game Notes

Biggest Favorites

BOS (-150) vs. SEA – Drew Pomeranz – Pomeranz and the Red Sox get the nod for tonight as they play at Safeco Field and take on the Mariners. Drew Pomeranz will make his fourth start with the Red Sox, and he has seen mixed results. In his last start against the Angels, Pomeranz has gone 5.1 innings allowing five runs on six hits with a 4:2 K:BB ratio. Seattle has not faired well against lefties this season, owning a .316 wOBA with a .313 OBP and a .420 SLG. Pomeranz hasn’t been missing a lot of bats since coming to the Red Sox, as he’s made seven, 13 and five in his first three starts. While with the Padres, Pomeranz was only under double-digits six out of his 16 starts. The Mariners do strikeout at a decent clip with a 21.5 K%, so he certainly has the opportunity to get back on the right track. All in all, priced at $9,400 tonight, I think Pomeranz It should be a fine play at Safeco Field.

Highest Totals

LAD vs. COL – 11 runs – With 11 runs projected last night, it looked like we would have reached that total in the first inning. 14 runs were scored with 12 of those going to the Rockies. Kenta Maeda takes on Tyler Chatwood in this one. Maeda will be facing the Rockies for the third time this season, with one of those starts coming at Coors Field. In those two starts, Maeda has gone 13 innings allowing one run on eight hits with a 17:2 K:BB ratio. When you think about it, it’s quite impressive. At $6,700, I think he could once again be an intriguing GPP play, just like Anderson for the Rockies was last night.

For Chatwood, like most pitchers, he’s been struggling at Coors Field. In 10 starts, Chatwood owns a 5.69 ERA with a 1.68 ERA and averaging just 7.9 FPPG. It’s hard to gauge where Chatwood will stand in this matchup. In his last three home starts, Chatwood has faced the Braves, Rays and Phillies. In those games Chatwood allowed a combined 11 runs with a 9:13 K:BB ratio. His start against the Braves was his best, where he shut them out for five innings, but the Phillies and Rays were able to get to him. The Dodgers are putrid with the bats, but I don’t know if I can trust him fully in this spot.

Weather Concerns

PIT vs ATL (Turner Field) – This game will feature of chance of thunderstorms all throughout the night. It does look like it would clear later on, but it’s a bit iffy at the moment. Make sure to check this one later on today.

Park Factors

Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Anything at or above 1.000 favors hitters, anything below it favors pitchers.

  • Coors Field– LAD vs COL – Get used to seeing this over the next few days. Coors Field comes into tonight favoring every offensive category.
  • Turner Field – PIT vs ATL – Turner Field checks in as our second most favorable park for hitters tonight. Coming into this game, Turner Field favors every offensive category except runs and doubles.
  • Minute Maid Park – TOR vs HOU – Minute Maid Park is currently ranked 29th in all of baseball and is number one on our list tonight. Triples are the only category favored here.
  • Safeco Field – BOS vs SEA – Safeco Field checks in as our second least favorable park for hitters tonight, which is another reason why I like Pomeranz. Coming into this game, Safeco only favors home runs.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters

Worst vs LHBOPSAVGBest vs LHBOPSAVG
Nathan Eovaldi.880.277Drew Pomeranz.611.227
A.J. Griffin.876.264Tyler Chatwood.639.230
Tyrell Jenkins.865.273Kenta Maeda.664.222

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Worst vs RHBOPSAVGBest vs RHBOPSAVG
Tyrell Jenkins.920.282A.J. Griffin.546.190
Ricky Nolasco.836.305Kenta Maeda.593.222
Mike Fiers.814.284Drew Pomeranz.604.192

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

BatterOpposing SPABFP/AB
Alex RodriguezBartolo Colon523.32
Freddie FreemanRyan Vogelsong172.52
Matt KempRyan Vogelson391.89

  • Alex Rodriguez and Bartolo Colon have faced each other numerous times in their careers. Rodriguez has gone 23-52 with seven doubles, a triple, eight home runs and 20 RBIs.
  • Freddie Freeman and the Braves will be taking on Ryan Vogelsong tonight, and a few players have some solid BvP against him. Freeman is 7-17 with two home runs and four RBIs.
  • The newly acquired Matt Kemp will bring his BvP to the Braves tonight. Against Vogelsong, Kemp is 12-39 with two doubles, a triple, a home run and seven RBIs.


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

J.A. Happ – TOR vs HOU – $11,600 – I’m a bit skeptical about this start to be honest. I’m not a huge fan of his price, but I am a fan of the upside in this matchup. The Astros strike out like it’s nobody’s business, especially against left-handed pitchers. The Astros own a 23.5 K%, which ranks fifth in the league. On top of that, the numbers against lefties haven’t been all that impressive. With a .312 wOBA to go with a .315 OBP and a .410 SLG, these aren’t exactly numbers that will scare you off a strong lefty. Happ is the most expensive pitcher on the night, but I do think he can pull off a strong score here.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Jay Bruce – NYM vs. NYY (Nathan Eovaldi) – $5,400 – This feels like a fantastic spot for Bruce to really make an impact with his new team. Facing Nathan Eovaldi tonight, he’s in a fantastic spot with how poorly Eovaldi does against lefties. On the season at home, Eovaldi allows a .391 wOBA with a .576 SLG with five home runs allowed. Bruce comes into this game with a .369 wOBA against righties with a .572 SLG. He’s expensive, but worth it.

Save Big by Drafting…

James Loney – NYM vs. NYY (Nathan Eovaldi) – $3,400 – Yes, we’re going with another Mets player tonight. Coming into this game, Loney owns a .365 wOBA against righties with a .485 SLG. Averaging a decent 6.2 FPPG for his price tag over his last 10 games makes him an intriguing option.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on.  Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.