We have a 12 game slate going tonight after a short but sweet three game slate this afternoon. We have some good pitching on tap to go along with some solid hitter matchups. As always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Biggest Favorites

SFG (-193) vs. PHI – Johnny Cueto – Cueto’s taking on the same Phillies team that roughed up Madison Bumgarner last night to a tune of eight runs (four earned) on 10 hits in just five innings. This will be the second time that Cueto has faced these Phillies where they also had their way. In that game, Cueto allowed six runs on eight hits with a 2:2 K:BB ratio in six innings for -1.1 fantasy points. The Phillies haven’t exactly been on fire since the All Star break, as they own just a .281 wOBA with a .297 OBP and a .345 SLG, so we can’t attest yesterday to that. All in all, maybe it was just a bad night for Bumgarner and Cueto respectively in those matchups. Cueto has been almost identical on the road and at home this season, so no real advantage comes for here. If you want to pay up for Cueto tonight, I totally understand. Personally, I think we have some nice value plays on this slate tonight as well, so paying up for him isn’t at the top of my list.

Highest Totals

LAD vs. COL – 11 runs – Same as always here, as Coors Field grabs the highest projected run total of the night. Brock Stewart will make his second major league start taking on Tyler Anderson. In his first major league start, Stewart took on the Brewers where he lasted five innings allowing five runs on eight hits with a nice 7:2 K:BB ratio. Stewart always has that K upside, owning a 10.3 K/9 in seven Triple-A starts this season and a 9.9 in Double-A. Obviously it’s hard to gauge where these young kids will end up at the majors, but I don’t think he has a ton of upside here against a Rockies team that doesn’t strikeout a ton at home with just a 18.5 K%.

With Tyler Anderson, he always seems to make an intriguing push as a GPP play, even at Coors Field. In seven starts, Anderson owns a 3.47 ERA with a 1.43 WHIP and averaging 14.9 FPPG. The Dodgers are one of the worst offenses in the league against left-handed pitching and own a decent 20.6 K% to match with Anderson and his 7.6 K/9. I’m not saying Anderson is on his way to easy street to come up with a solid score here tonight, but for just $5,200, I think he’s certainly in play tonight in GPPs.

Weather Concerns

As of writing early this afternoon, it doesn’t look as if we have any weather concerns for tonight. As always though, it’s not a bad idea to take a look again closer to first pitch.

Park Factors

Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Anything at or above 1.000 favors hitters, anything below it favors pitchers.

  • Coors Field – LAD vs COL Get used to seeing this over the next few days. Coors Field comes into tonight favoring every offensive category.
  • Progressive Field – MIN vs CLE Coming into this game, Progressive Field favors hitters in every category except triples.
  • Citizens Bank Park – SFG vs PHI Citizens Bank Park was bumped all the way up to 27th after last night! With that added offensive barrage, Citizens now has a favorable rating in just home runs and triples.
  • Tropicana Field – KCR vs TBR Tropicana has not been very favorable to hitters this season and tonight will be no different. We don’t have a single category in favor of hitters here tonight.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters

Worst vs LHBOPSAVGBest vs LHBOPSAVG
Kendall Graveman.851.297Cole Hamels.526.176
Cody Reed.843.333Tyler Anderson.576.226
Jered Weaver.819.281Michael Fulmer.597.220

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Worst vs RHBOPSAVGBest vs RHBOPSAVG
Cody Reed.980.322Marco Estrada.539.155
Tyler Duffey.980.328Johnny Cueto.574.219
Jered Weaver.877.308Chris Sale.637.222

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

BatterOpposing SPABFP/AB
Victor MartinezChris Sale363.28
Kenny VargasTrevor Bauer133.07
Seth SmithRick Porcello162.62

  • Ah yes, Victor Martinez and Chris Sale. These two bitter rivals keep battling it out with Martinez putting up some solid numbers. V-Mart is 18-36 with three doubles, four home runs, nine RBIs and three walks.
  • Kenny Vargas taking on Trevor Bauer is second on our list for tonight. Vargas is 7-13 with two doubles, a home run and four RBIs.
  • Finally we have Seth Smith taking on Rick Porcello. Smith has gone 9-16 with three doubles, a triple and an RBI against Pretty Ricky.


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Jake Odorizzi – TBR vs KCR – $9,100 – I think we have a lot to like in this matchup for Odorizzi. First and foremost, it’s against the Royals. Now in case you haven’t heard, this Royals team wishes the All-Star break never happened because since then, they can’t hit! The Royals rank last in wOBA since the ASB at .268 with a .283 OBP and a .324 SLG. Truly, these are some horrific numbers. The strikeouts have been about the same with a 20.9 K%, but that’s enough to see some upside in this matchup for Odorizzi. He’s been looking really good as of late, generating double-digit swing and misses over his last three starts for a grand total of 37 against the A’s, Orioles and Yankees. At just $9,100, Odorizzi should definitely be considered tonight.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Mike Napoli – CLE vs. MIN (Tyler Duffey) – $4,700 – Napoli has been a beast when it comes to hitting at Progressive Field this season. Coming into tonight, Napoli is averaging 11 FPPG at home, batting .296 with a .646 SLG and 17 of his 26 home runs. Tonight, he matches up against Tyler Duffey, who owns a .411 wOBA against righties with a .599 SLG and 12 of his 16 home runs allowed. Hitting at the heart of this Indians lineup, I have no reason to believe Napoli won’t be part of the barrage of runs Duffey should allow in this spot.

Save Big by Drafting…

David Dahl – COL vs. LAD (Brock Stewart) – $3,000 – It’s crazy that Dahl has not seen a bump in his price tag as of yet, but I’m not mad. Hitting near the heart of the Rockies lineup, in Coors Field, for just $3,000 is insane. He hasn’t been up with the big club much, but in eight games, Dahl owns a .355 batting average with two home runs, three RBIs and averaging 8.9 FPPG. Somehow, someway, a play in Coors field cannot only be a money saver, but a productive one at that.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on.  Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.