The dust has settled on a very active, non-waiver trade deadline. Now that players are joining their new teams, we head into the stretch run. Let’s get you set for this full 15-game slate. As always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Biggest Favorites

SFG (-216) vs. PHI – Madison Bumgarner- Bumgarner and the Giants are the heavy favorites on the night going up agains the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. Bumgarner comes into tonight as the most expensive pitcher on this slate at $13,000. This will be the second time Bumgarner has taken on the Phillies, where last time he went 6.1 innings allowing three runs on five hits with a 7:1 K:BB ratio. The start was also on the road, where Bumgarner owns a 2.73 ERA with a .296 wOBA. Naturally, you have to love this spot for Bumgarner against a team that owns a .282 wOBA against lefties, which is ranked last in the league. The Phillies also own a favorable 22.9 K%, which is ranked 8th in the league. Obviously the strikeout potential is high for Bumgarner here, owning a 10.2 K/9 on the road. He’s a favorite tonight for sure.

Highest Totals

LAD vs. COL – 11 runs – – This game will feature Brandon McCarthy and Jon Gray dueling. McCarthy has been a revelation for the Dodgers since his debut this season, posting a 2.39 ERA with a 0.84 WHIP and a K/9 of 11.2. I think we all can agree here that this is not the McCarthy we’re used to seeing. McCarthy owns a career 4.09 ERA with a 1.28 WHIP. I think people will be tempted to grab him because of how cheap he is, but I think I’m staying far away here. We have had a couple of instances where pitchers have pitched well at Coors this season, but I just can’t see it. He’s strictly a GPP play only for me here if I was going to go that route.

Weather Concerns

TEX vs BAL (Camden Yards) – Camden Yards could see a chance of a thunderstorms in the middle of the game. It should clear up rather quickly, but it can certainly disrupt the game. Watch this one closely, as a significant delay could soil any plans you have for pitchers here.

PIT vs ATL (Turner Field) – Same situation as in Camden Yards tonight, as a thunderstorm can roll through in the middle of this game. Also, the humidity will be flowing in this one, perfect hitters weather.

Park Factors

Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Anything at or above 1.000 favors hitters, anything below it favors pitchers.

  • Coors Field– LAD vs COL Get used to seeing this over the next few days. Coors Field comes into tonight favoring every offensive category.
  • Progressive Field – MIN vs CLE Progressive Field certainly showed it’s favoritism towards hitters last night with that 17 run outburst. Coming into tonight, every offensive category is favored here except triples.
  • Citizens Bank Park – SFG vs PHI – Citizens Bank Park has overtaken Dodger Stadium as the worst ballpark for hitters this season. Coming into tonight, only home runs and triples are favored here.
  • Wrigley Field – MIA vs CHC – Home of one of the highest projected run totals of the night (HOW?), Wrigley Field only favors triples and walks.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters

Worst vs LHBOPSAVGBest vs LHBOPSAVG
Mike Foltynewicz.887.267Madison Bumgarner.521.184
Luis Perdomo.860.316Sean Manaea.555.191
R.A. Dickey.853.267Tanner Roark.565.199

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Worst vs RHBOPSAVGBest vs RHBOPSAVG
Anibal Sanchez.931.332Brandon McCarthy.417.133
Luis Perdomo.920.346Jose Fernandez.520.183
James Shields.843.276Matt Andriese.590.241

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

BatterOpposing SPABFP/AB
Jose AbreuAnibal Sanchez144.28
Miguel CabreraJames Shields602.25
Nelson CruzDavid Price252.12

  • We start off our BvP for tonight with Jose Abreu doing some major damage against Anibal Sanchez. Abreu has gone 8-14 with two doubles, two home runs, seven RBIs and two walks.
  • Next, we have by far the biggest sample size you will see in a BvP section. Miguel Cabrera has faced James Shields 60 (!) times and has 22 hits with nine doubles, three home runs, nine RBIs and six walks.
  • Finally, we have Nelson Cruz showing why he is always one of the top targets against lefties. Cruz is 9-25 against David Price with two home runs, four RBIs and two walks.


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Jacob deGrom – NYM vs NYY – $11,500 – I love this spot for deGrom tonight as you can get him in a good matchup and some significant savings over someone like Bumgarner at $13,000. deGrom faces a sad looking Yankees lineup that no longer has Carlos Beltran, who was arguably their best hitter. Pitching at Citi Field tonight, where he’s been his best, deGrom comes into tonight with a 2.18 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP and a K/9 of 10.1 at home. The Yankees essentially waved the white flag at the trade deadline yesterday, so it will be interesting to see what kind of lineup they roll with the rest of the way. Nonetheless, deGrom should be one of the top options on the night.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Miguel Cabrera – DET vs. CHW (James Shields) – $5,400 – Sure, the BvP certainly helped get Cabrera in this section tonight, but his numbers at home are also staggering, which further solidifies his spot here. Aside from his numbers against James Shields (which are fantastic) Cabrera is averaging 10.1 FPPG at home this season with 14 home runs and 24 extra base hits total. Even with Shields pitching better as of late and coming off a stellar month of July, I don’t like his chances against Cabrera.

Save Big by Drafting…

Chris Carter – MIL vs. SD (Luis Perdomo) – $3,400 – Rostering Chris Carter is telling everyone your playing against one thing; you’re expecting a big fly tonight. Essentially, that’s the only reason Carter has a job in the majors, right? Batting .215 on the season, Carter has 25 home runs with 60 RBIs and is averaging 7.5 FPPG. Facing Luis Perdomo, who is allowing an insane .563 wOBA against righties at home with an .804 SLG, I think Carter is worth the small price tag.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on.  Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.