Only four games will be played in the afternoon slate today. I’ll get you set, and, as always, you can find me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Biggest Favorites

SFG (-310) vs ATL– Madison Bumgarner – Taking on the Braves for the second time this season, Bumgarner put in one of his best performances of the season against this team last time out. In that start, MadBum went 7.2 innings allowing no runs on four hits with an 11:2 K:BB ratio. The Braves land in the lower half of the league in terms of offensive categories against lefties, owning a .315 wOBA with a decent .332 OBP and a .394 SLG.

Highest Totals

CIN vs. ARZ – 9.5 runs – Tonight, Homer Bailey will oppose Archie Bradley in this projected high scoring affair. I’d be shocked to see either side get shut out, as both pitchers haven’t been looking right on the mound. Bailey is fresh off his dismantling by the Dodgers where he allowed six runs in just 2.1 innings on nine hits and didn’t record a strikeout. His struggles against lefties have followed him all throughout his career, and although it’s early, he is already allowing a .399 wOBA to them this season. In the hitter friendly Chase Field, I don’t like his chances here.

For Archie Bradley, he has decent strikeout potential, but he walks WAY too many guys, and left-handed batters absolutely destroy him. That’s not exactly the type of statement you want to read when you are opposing Joey Votto tonight. Bradley is allowing a .409 wOBA this season to lefties with five of his 14 home runs allowed and a .547 SLG. Overall at home, Bradley has a 3.60 wOBA with a .498 SLG. If you like runs, I’d take a hard look at this game.

Weather Concerns

A clear night of baseball is ahead!

Park Factors

Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Anything at or above 1.000 favors hitters, anything below it favors pitchers.

Chase Field – CIN vs ARZ – Home of the highest projected run total of the night, Chase Field gets the nod as our number one ballpark. All offensive categories get the nod here tonight.

Dodger Stadium – CHC vs LAD – Dodger Stadium is always dwelling near the bottom of the barrel for offensive categories. In a shock to no one, all categories favor pitchers here.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters

Worst vs LHBOPSAVGBest vs LHBOPSAVG
Archie Bradley.970.323Madison Bumgarner.546.197
Aaron Blair.967.435Jon Lester.610.222
Homer Bailey.919.400Yordano Ventura.725.236

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Worst vs RHBOPSAVGBest vs RHBOPSAVG
Aaron Blair.851.291Madison Bumgarner.632.216
Eduardo Rodriguez.806.257Jon Lester.636.218
Yordano Ventura.701.249Archie Bradley.648.223

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

BatterOpposing SPABFP/AB
Rickie WeeksHomer Bailey283.03

  • Only one good BvP stat for this small four game slate has Rickie Weeks taking on Homer Bailey. Weeks has gone 14-28 with two doubles, two home runs, eight RBIs and five walks.


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Jon Lester – CHC vs LAD – $11,500 – Honestly, this was close between Bumgarner and Lester. Both teams they oppose don’t strike out a ton, but in their prior starts against these teams, they were able to grab double-digit strikeouts. The Dodgers were, and still are, one of the worst offensive teams against lefties this season, owning a .291 wOBA with a .310 OBP and a .351 SLG. Lester has been better at home than he has on the road, but you’re getting one of the best parks for pitchers in Dodger Stadium tonight. Lester should be a fantastic play.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Joey Votto – CIN vs. ARZ (Homer Bailey) – $5,000 – Votto is once again one of the top options today, as he takes on Archie Bradley at Chase Field. Bradley has been having issues with lefties all season long, owning a .411 wOBA with a .561 SLG. Votto, after crushing a home run last night en route to his 23-point night, owns a .437 wOBA on the road against righties with a .587 SLG.

Save Big by Drafting…

Matt Kemp – ATL vs. SFG (Madison Bumgarner) – $3,500 – Usually not a huge fan of targeting against Madison Bumgarner, but it’s hard to deny how well Matt Kemp hits left-handed pitching. On the season, Kemp owns a .402 wOBA with a .631 SLG with nine of his 26 home runs. He’s cheap enough to take a flier on.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on.  Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.