We have 11 games going tonight in this big Saturday night slate. As always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Biggest Favorites

NYM (-230) vs PHI– Noah Syndergaard- Syndergaard takes on the Phillies tonight as a strong favorite to win. This will be the second time that Thor takes on the Phillies this season, and in his first appearance he went seven innings allowing one run on five hits with a 8:2 K:BB ratio. Facing right-handed pitchers, the Phillies own one of the highest K% in the league at 22.5%, good for 5th overall. This plays perfectly into Thor’s wheelhouse, as he owns a 11.4 K/9 at home. I have full confidence that he’ll walk out of Citi Field tonight with another solid start under his belt and he should be viewed as one of the top options tonight.

Biggest Over/Unders

CIN vs. ARZ – 9.5 runs – The D-backs continue to be involved in the highest projected run total of the night, hosting the Reds. Anthony DeSclafani will take on Zack Godley in a matchup that will certainly bring some runs. DeSclafani has been pitching realitevely well this season, but lefties have been giving him a boatload of trouble. When he’s on the road, DeSclafani owns a .390 wOBA against lefties with a .576 SLG and has allowed five of his 10 home runs surrendered. This would make Jake Lamb one of the top targets in this game, as he owns a .390 wOBA against righties with a .586 SLG and a .941 OPS.

For the Reds it’s Godley, who was smoked in his last start against the Atlanta Braves. In that start, Godley allowed seven runs on nine hits in just five innings of work. Godley is allowing a .369 wOBA at home with a .518 SLG. Godley also struggles the most against lefties, allowing a .391 wOBA with a .525 SLG. Joey Votto quickly comes to mind as one of the top options on the Reds tonight, as the rest of the team is mediocre at best against righties. Nonetheless, both teams should be in a great spot to post some runs.

Weather Concerns

LAA vs. DET (Comerica Park) – This game should start off with no issues, but we could see some rain creep in later in the game. Pitching wise, it should be ok, but it’s worth monitoring.

SEA vs. CHW (U.S. Cellular Field) – Same as LAA and DET, this game should start off with no problem but rain could creep in later on. The chance of rain is smaller than in DET, but it’s still potentially a threat.

Park Factors

Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Anything at or above 1.000 favors hitters, anything below it favors pitchers.

Fenway Park – KCR vs BOS Fenway Park checks in as our number one ballpark for hitters tonight. Fenway favors every offensive category except home runs.

Chase Field – CIN vs ARZ Home of the highest projected run total of the night, Chase Field gets the nod as our number two ballpark. All offensive categories get a boost.

Minute Maid Park– TBR vs HOU – Minute Maid Park currently ranks as the worst ballpark in all of baseball right now for hitters. As of tonight, only triples get the nod here.

Marlins Park–SDP vs MIA – Marlins Park checks in as our second worst ballpark for hitters tonight. Only doubles and walks are favored here.

Splits to Start

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

*Only two BvP stats for tonight worth a mention, so we start with Cespedes and Hellickson. Cespedes has gone 5-12 against Hellickson with two home runs and three RBIs.

*The other we have tonight is Salavdor Perez taking on David Price. Perez has gone 4-12 with two home runs and three RBIs.

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Jameson Taillon – PIT vs MIL – $9,900 – It’s hard not to get excited if you’re a Pirates fan when you see Taillon on the mound. The young rookie has now strung together five straight quality starts. Jameson is facing the Brewers for the third time this season, and in two previous starts, Taillon has gone 12 innings, allowing three runs on 11 hits with a 9:0 K:BB ratio. The strikeout potential is always a plus when facing the Brewers, and Taillon owns a nice 7.3 K/9 this month. I think we all are waiting for that breakout performance that Taillon keeps teasing and tonight could be that night.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Jake Lamb – ARZ vs. CIN (Anthony DeSclafani) – $4,500 – As I mentioned earlier, I think Lamb is in a fantastic spot tonight taking on DeSclafani at Chase Field. In case you skipped over that, DeSclafani has been getting wrecked on the road against lefties, posting a .390 wOBA with a .576 SLG with five of his 10 home runs allowed. Meanwhile, Lamb looks as if he’s finally broken out of his slump and continues to hit righties at home well. Lamb owns a .413 wOBA in these match ups with a .644 SLG and a 1.008 OPS. At $4,500, you have no excuse not to get him in your lineup.

Save Big by Drafting…

Xavier Scruggs – MIA vs. SDP (Clayton Richard) – $2,900 – You may have heard some rumors about the call up of the highly touted Marlins prospect, Xavier Scruggs. If you haven’t let me give you the 411. Before his call up, Scruggs was batting .290 at Triple-A with 24 doubles, 21 home runs, 69 RBIs and 58 walks in 93 games. His matchup tonight against Richard is a good one, as Richard has allowed a career .350 wOBA to right-handed batters with a .458 SLG with 86 of his career 95 home runs allowed. Scruggs is dirt cheap tonight and until he starts making some noise at the major league level, he will continue to fly under the radar.

 
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on.  Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.

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