After a short four game slate this afternoon, we have a nice 10 game slate going tonight with four pitchers that cost at least $10K. Let’s get you ready for tonight, and, as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Biggest Favorites

MIA (-255) vs KCR– Jose Fernandez – I think it’s safe to think that Fernandez is in a bit of a lull, but he has a good matchup tonight to help remedy that. Facing a Royals lineup that loses a DH, Fernandez gets a team with the lowest wOBA since the All-Star break at .287 with a .296 OBP and a .366 SLG. The Royals are also striking out at a decent 21.2 K% since that time, which plays right into Fernandez wheelhouse. At $12,600, Fernandez is the night’s most expensive pitcher, but I think he bounces back nicely here.

Highest Totals

DET vs. MIN – 9.5 runs – Boyd has looked great lately, as he’s coming off a one run six-inning performance against the Red Sox. He’s faced this Twins club just about a month ago, where he went six innings allowing no runs on three hits with a 7:1 K:BB ratio. I don’t know how much of that start Boyd will be able to replicate tonight, as this start is coming on the road, where Boyd has struggled, owning a .335 wOBA compared to a .285 at home. The Twins are also a good hitting team against lefties, owners of a .327 wOBA with a .329 OBP.

Duffey has also pitching well against the Tigers once already, allowing just one run in 6.1 innings, but four runs total were scored in that outing. Duffey had a tiny string of decent games as of late, but the rails came off his last time out against the Royals. Duffey has been downright terrible at home this season, allowing 13 of his 20 home runs with a .387 wOBA and a .573 SLG. With so many bats in the Tigers lineup that hit right-handed pitching well, it’s hard to imagine Duffey coming away with a quality start here.

Weather Concerns

PHI vs. CHW (U.S. Cellular Field) – Chicago will be under the threat of thunderstorms the entire tonight that doesn’t clear out until late. The best chance of something rolling in seems to be in the late innings, but it isn’t relatively strong as of this afternoon.

NYM vs. STL (Busch Stadium) – Again, thunderstorms will be the threat in St. Louis tonight, although this looks less likely than Chicago. Keep an eye on this one.

Park Factors

Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Anything at or above 1.000 favors hitters, anything below it favors pitchers.

  • Rogers Centre – LAA vs TOR – Rogers Centre gets the nod for our most favored ballpark for this 10 game slate. As of tonight, all offensive categories are favored except home runs.
  • Target Field – DET vs MIN – Target Field rarely makes this list, but all the favorable ballparks for hitters tonight are not being occupied. Coming into this game, Target Field favors singles, doubles and triples.
  • Dodger Stadium – SFG vs LAD – Dodger is the second worst ballpark in all the majors and number on our list tonight. With the Giants in town, Dodger Stadium does not favor any offense here.
  • Tropicana Field – BOS vs TBR – Tropicana Field has frequented this list and checks in as number two tonight. Walks are the only offensive category that get a nod here.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters

Worst vs LHBOPSAVGBest vs LHBOPSAVG
James Shields.868.290Rich Hill.471.197
Dillon Gee.863.316Tanner Roark.597.204
Jerad Eickhoff.815.278Jacob deGrom.598.232

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Worst vs RHBOPSAVGBest vs RHBOPSAVG
Tyler Duffey.946.315Carlos Martinez.504.197
James Shields.933.303Jose Fernandez.550.201
Wade Miley.856.299Johnny Cueto.561.211

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

BatterOpposing SPABFP/AB
Jean SeaguraJulio Teheran151.73
Chase UtleyJohnny Cueto281.53

  • Really not much to see here tonight, as the BvP choices are few and far between. Jean Segura has seen Julio Teheran 15 times in their careers and has five hits with a solo home run included.
  • Chase Utley is hoping to exploit the second half regression that Cueto seems to be experiencing right now. In their prior matchups, Utley is 10-28 with a double, home run and two RBIs.


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Rick Porcello – BOS vs TBR – $11,900 – It’s getting harder and harder to keep Pretty Ricky off our lineups as of late. The newfound Red Sox ace is averaging 23.6 FPPG over his last ten starts and 26.4 over his last five. He faces the Rays for the fourth time this season where he’s pitched 20 innings allowing five runs on 17 hits with a 22:4 K:BB ratio. Porcello continues to be as consistent as humanly possibly and hasn’t scored less than 20 fantasy points since July 4th, a span of eight starts. With the Rays owning such a high K% against righties at 23.2% and some below average offensive numbers, Porcello is one again one of the top targets on this slate.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Trea Turner – WAS vs. BAL (Wade Miley) – $5,000 – Truly, what doesn’t Trea Turner do? Since his call up, Turner is hitting .320 in 36 games with four home runs, 20 RBIs and 14 stolen bases. He goes up against Wade Miley tonight, who is allowing a .364 wOBA to righties with a .504 SLG and a .352 OBP. Turner has been creeping up in price slowly but surely, but he has been rewarding everyone who takes him with his recent play. Averaging 12.3 FPPG over his last 10 starts, Turner should be considered tonight.

Save Big by Drafting…

Michael Saunders – TOR vs. LAA (Matt Shoemaker) – $3,300 – Saunders feels awfully cheap for someone that has hit 21 home runs this season. He hasn’t been crushing the ball lately, but I don’t hate getting some power on the cheap on a night where we have pitchers like Jose Fernandez and Yu Darvish to choose from. Saunders faces Matt Shoemaker, who owns a .345 wOBA on the road with 10 of his 17 home runs allowed. Saunders has .387 wOBA against righties at Rogers Centre with a .529 SLG.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on.  Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.