With every team playing in a game tonight, we have so many ways to tackle this full 15-game slate. Pitching is going to be interesting, as only two pitchers are priced over $10K. Let’s get you ready for tonight, and, as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Biggest Favorites

CHC (-245) vs SDP– Jake Arrieta – Jake Arrieta will take the mound as he faces the strikeout happy San Diego Padres. Arrieta is coming off an extremely disappointing start against the Brewers, where he went 5.2 innings, allowing five runs on three hits with a 3:7 K:BB ratio. The walks have certainly been a problem this season, as he’s averaging 3.4 per nine innings this season with an 8.9 K/9. He isn’t getting a ton of swings and misses, averaging eight in his last five starts. Matchup wise, he SHOULD be in good position pitching at Petco Park, but his high salary of $12,500 will have me looking elsewhere.

Highest Totals

LAA vs. TOR – 9.5 runs – The Angels visit Toronto for the highest projected run total of the night. Tyler Skaggs takes the ball for the Angels while R.A. Dickey does so for the Blue Jays. After two solid starts to start his season against the Royals and Red Sox, Skaggs has really stumbled since then, allowing a total of 15 runs in 13.2 innings. The Blue Jays are a good hitting club against lefties, owning a .344 wOBA with a .347 OBP and a .453 SLG. With Skaggs being a flyball pitcher (36:15 FB:GB ratio in his last three) the Blue Jays have a real possibility of making quick work against Skaggs.

For the Angels, they face R.A. Dickey, who has been horrible at Rogers Centre this season. The owner of a .363 wOBA with a .515 SLG at home, Dickey could see some issues here. The Angels haven’t exactly been lighting it up since the All-Star Break, with a .310 wOBA and a .399 SLG, but Dickey has been getting tagged hard at home lately, allowing 16 runs in 13 innings to the Rays, Padres and Mariners. As always, it’s usually a smart decision to grab some bats in this one.


Weather Concerns

DET vs. MIN (Target Field) – It’s not overly concerning, but we could see a thunderstorm roll through near the late innings of this game. As of this afternoon, the risk seems fairly low, but keep a watch on this game.

Park Factors

Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Anything at or above 1.000 favors hitters, anything below it favors pitchers.

  • Chase Field – ATL vs ARZ – Chase Field grabs our number one spot for hitters tonight. Coming into this game, all offensive categories are favored except walks.
  • Rogers Centre – LAA vs TOR – Rogers Centre gets the nod for our second most favored ballpark. As of tonight, all offensive categories are favored except home runs.
  • Dodger Stadium – SFG vs LAD – Dodger Stadium is the second worst ballpark in all the majors and number one our list tonight. With the Giants in town, Dodger Stadium does not favor any offense here.
  • Oakland Coliseum – CLE vs OAK – The Oakland Coliseum has been finding its way onto this list quite often as of late. As of tonight, only triples have a favorable rating.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters

Worst vs LHBOPSAVGBest vs LHBOPSAVG
Archie Bradley.987.328Madison Bumgarner.485.169
Kyle Gibson.918.330Derek Holland.530.204
Clay Buchholz.876.308Sean Manaea.530.173


Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Worst vs RHBOPSAVGBest vs RHBOPSAVG
Chase Anderson.949.311Jake Arrieta.562.194
Jon Niese.883.295Kenta Maeda.604.223
Anibal Sanchez.863.304Archie Bradley.626.212


Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

BatterOpposing SPABFP/AB
Logan MorrisonClay Buchholz123.75
David OrtizChris Archer343.17
Nolan ArenadoChase Anderson202.75

  • It’s clearly a bad day to be a pitcher who has a first name that begins with the letter C. Logan Morrison kicks us off today with his numbers against Clay Buchholz. Morrison is 5-12 with two doubles, two home runs and six RBIs.
  • Next we have David Ortiz taking on Chris Archer. Ortiz has gone 13-34 with four doubles, three home runs, 16 RBIs and four walks.
  • Finally, we have Nolan Arenado taking on Chase Anderson. Arenado has gone 6-20 against Anderson with three home runs and seven RBIs.


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Joe Musgrove – HOU vs PIT – $7,500 – I’m not going to let his last start deter me from taking this kid again. Musgrove takes on one of the worst hitting teams post All-Star break in a pitchers park, so he loses facing a DH tonight. It’s fair to say that he was downright terrible against the Orioles, inducing just five swinging strikes in 5.1 innings, but the park factor certainly wasn’t helping him and that is a big difference for tonight. The Pirates own a 21.1 K% since the ASB and Musgrove is just too cheap for his potential in any given start. I think he’s a fine play for tonight in both formats and will likely go under-owned because of his last performance.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Freddie Freeman – ATL vs. ARI (Archie Bradley) – $5,400 – It’t not very often that we see a Braves hitter in the section for hitters we want to target, but Freeman is a perfect storm of factors that he makes the cut today. First and foremost, he’s on an complete tear, averaging 15.9 FPPG over his last 10 games that’s seen him go 14-32 with five doubles, five home runs, 13 RBIs and 11 walks. He faces Archie Bradley today, who has been destroyed by lefties all season. Coming into this game, Bradley owns a .424 wOBA against them with a .603 SLG at Chase Field.

Save Big by Drafting…

Yasmani Grandal – LAD vs. SF (Madison Bumgarner) – $3,200 – Quite frankly, Grandal has a tough matchup ahead. Taking on Madison Bumgarner is not exactly a matchup you want to go up against. With that being said, Grandal is a fantastic sneaky play on the night with how good he’s hit left-handed pitching. Coming into tonight, Grandal owns a .471 wOBA against lefties with a .524 SLG and a 1.090 OPS. At just $3,200, I’m more than happy to take a flier on him.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on.  Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.