Well, last night was a disappointment to say the least. My picks of Paul Goldschmidt and Justin Turner got us a combined four points. Four. Which was a real bummer because stats wise, they were set for some good matchups. I’m not even just saying this either, I had AJ Pollock in that section instead of Goldschmidt before I changed my mind and put Goldy in the article. But, thinking that Goldy might be low owned across the board, I thought it would be a good idea. It wasn’t. At least Price did well for us, scoring 31.8 points. That, I can live with.
For today, I’m only going to focus on the night games, as we have three playing this afternoon. If you’re looking for some quick advice on the early afternoon slate, Dan Haren is 100% my pitcher I’m picking. Cole doesn’t have a friendly matchup and I might even go as far to stack the Giants against him. So let’s get to all the information for tonight and best of luck. You can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Heaviest Pitcher Favorites
Chris Tillman vs. Minnesota Twins (-162) – Wow. This is gross. Let me go throw up. Tillman, is the most favorited pitcher on the night slate, according to Vegas. Always remember, this section is who VEGAS like, not me. Tillman enters tonight with a 4.54 ERA to go with a 1.34 WHIP and a K/9 of 6.2 It’s very well known that the Twins are not a good offensive team, they have the fourth to last wOBA in the second half of the season at .301. They strike out a ton with a K% of 22.5 and their power is in the middle of the league, at .161, good for 15th in the league. So considering these numbers, almost any starting pitcher should have an edge here. However, are you really going to trust Tillman? Granted, his price tag tonight is insanely low at $5500. That’s pretty damn good, I’ll admit that. He had a good start his last time out against Oakland, who are another terrible offensive team, and scored 18.2 points. If he can match that again tonight, it would be incredible value. I just can’t say I’m very trusting of him doing so. He has been much better in the second half of the season, owning a 2.18 ERA during that span, but it was all basically to do with a good month of July. August has brought us one bad start and one good start. I’ll most likely get him into at least one lineup tonight, but that’s about it. If you can stand the potential blow up, give him a go. His salary certainly warrants that at the very least.
Joe Ross vs. Milwaukee Brewers (-157)- Ross has Washington Nationals fan excited, since the rest of their team has forgotten how to play baseball. After starting off his season with six great starts, Ross has started to stumble in his last two. His last start against the Giants, Ross only made it through four innings giving up six hits, four runs but he did stikeout six. Prior to that against the Dodgers, Ross went four innings giving up five runs on six hits and only striking out one. This go around, he has a much easier matchup against the Brewers. Like the Twins, the Brewers only have a .303 wOBA in the second half, as they just make it above the Twins. They don’t strikeout out a ton, as they’re 18th in the league in strikeout percentage at 20.8% and thier power, or should I say lack of, is 28th in the league at .123. Only the Marlins and Braves are lower. Not exactly flattering company to have. Ross has been a force against right handed hitters, owning a .198 wOBA against them. At the most, the Brewers might have two lefties in their lineup, like Scooter Gennet and Adam Lind. Not exactly names that are going to spook you. The Brewers are so right handed heavy, that I really like this start for Ross. At $7900, he could be a steal tonight. If you were going to be real bold, Tillman and Ross, leaving you an avearge of $4,575 for the rest of your hitters? Oh my.
Yordano Ventura vs. Boston Red Sox (-141) – This a tough one to predict here. Ventura has been great his last two starts, coming against the Tigers and the Angels. In those games, he scored 28.7 and 22.2. However, the Red Sox have the highest wOBA in the league in the second half of the season at .339. I don’t know if that’s good news for Ventura. Even with a 7.4 K/9 on the season for Ventura, the Red Sox are one of the toughest team in the league to strike out, with an 18% K%. Again, we run into the issues of Ventura being cheap on the night, as he’s only going to cost you $6400. It’s enticing once again, but we don’t have much to like here for Ventura. His wOBA splits are over .300 against both types of hitters. The strikeouts are going to be hard to come by because of how little the Sox strike out, and this game takes place at Fenway Park. Honestly, I would take Tillman over Ventura tonight. I’m not a huge fan of either, but Tillman has more upside in this matchup than Ventura does. I’ll be staying away.
Top Overall Game Over/Unders
New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies (Coors Field) – 10.5 Over/Under- The Rockies are at home, so instead of looking at how many projected runs all the other games are set for, I just check what this game is slated for. No doubt, this will always be at the top. Shocking, it is. Tonight, Jonathon Niese takes on Chris Rusin in this one. Boy, people who have tickets for this game must be elated at this pitching matchup! Both of these pitchers are going to be in for some offense tonight, as each pitcher as a wOBA of at least .318 against righties and lefties. Rusin is particularly bad against lefties, with a .394 wOBA against them. Honestly, I could go a bit more in depth with this game, but neither pitcher is anything impressive and in all seriousness, hitters should be targeted here, no matter what side of the plate they hit. #CoorsFieldLife
Toughest Left/Right Matchups
Toughest Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters
Andrew Heaney vs. Toronto Blue Jays – Here we go baby, my man Heaney! He owns a .227 wOBA against lefties this season. Damnnnnn son! Oh but wait, never mind. He’s facing the Blue Jays tonight? Yeah forget it. He’s not my guy anymore.
Sonny Gray vs. Tampa Bay Rays – Here we go baby, my man Gray! He owns a .230 wOBA against lefties on the year. He’s facing the Rays tonight. Yeah, nice! Still my man!
Toughest Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters
Joe Ross vs. Milwaukee Brewers – Seriously, that wOBA against righties is truly an impressive feat. .198? That’s crazy. That’s about the same level as Dallas Keuchel against lefties, they’re just getting nothing. Love him tonight.
Zack Greinke vs. Houston Astros – This has also got to be in the top three of pitching options for tonight. Greinke against the Astros team who loves to strike out. On the year, Greinke is holding righties to a .206 wOBA.
Best Left/Right Matchups
Easiest Pitcher vs. Left Handed Batters.
Joe Ross vs. Milwaukee Brewers- Now, seeing this number might scare you off a bit. But have no fear, the Brewers are so depleted on lefties, that I don’t go no worries. Regardless, Ross is brutal against lefties with a .395 wOBA against them.
Chris Rusin vs. New York Mets- No excuse for Rusin, he’s just not good against lefties. Plus, he’s pitching in Coors Field. Yeah, good luck with that. Rusin is “holding” lefties to a .394 wOBA.
Easiest Pitcher vs. Right Handed Batters.
Carlos Rodon vs. Seattle Mariners- If only Rodon could get his stats against rightes straightned out, he would be a much better pitcher. Good analysis, huh? Rodon has been struggling against righties, with a .373 wOBA against them.
Chris Tillman vs. Minnesota Twins – Ehhhhh, this is one of the biggest reasons why I’m so unsure about Tillman tonight. The Twins are no Blue Jays, but a .360 wOBA against righties is still a .360 wOBA against righties.
Gerardo Parra ($4300) – Think Parra is enjoying his time with his new team? I sure think so. Parra is 12-30 with four home runs, nine RBIs, seven runs scored and a stolen base, because, why the hell not?
A.J. Pollock ($5300) – God dammit, Pollock! If I had just stuck with you yesterday and not changed it to Goldy, everyone would think I was the man. Instead, everyone won’t be a fan, until I do another ticket giveaway next Friday. Anyways, Pollock is 13-28 with a home run, four RBIs, nine runs scored and four stolen bases. Polloc is beasting right now.
Blake Swihart ($2900) – If the Red Sox just had all these young kids play, maybe they wouldn’t have been as bad as they were all year. Regardless, Swihart isn’t hitting for power right now, but he’s making almost every hit count. Swihart is 10-16 with seven RBIs, and seight runs scored.
Best Batter vs. Pitcher Matchups
Marcell Ozuna vs. Aaron Harang- I say this almost everytime, doesn’t everyone have good numbers against Harang? They should. Ozuna is 6-15 with three extra base hits, two of them being home runs and a 1.337 OPS.
Brandon Phillips vs. Randal Delgado – Delgado has been working in the bullpen this year, but he makes his first start of the season today. Phillips is 4-11 with two extra base hits, one of them being a home run and a 1.235 OPS.
Luis Valbuena vs Zack Greinke- Valbuena has actually had some decent success against Greinke. I was impressed. Valbuena is 9-21 with three extra base hits and a 1.026 OPS. Not too shabby.
I’mmmmmm happy, I’m feelin glad I got SUNSHINE in a bag…..(this means nice day for baseball today)
One Pitcher To Build Lineups Around
Joe Ross ($7900)- Unless you just skip over the rest of my article, which is insulting, then this should come as no surprise. I god damn love this matchup for Ross tonight. His price tag is on point, the matchup looks awful tasty with a very right handed heavy lineup for the Brewers, and the strikeouts, while not extremely high, will certainly be obtainable. Not only will rostering Ross be a good idea in my mind, but it will certainly help you save some money to fill in the rest of your lineup. Even if the Brewers throw their left handed batters in the lineup, does Scooter Gennett really scare you? No? Adam Lind? Yeah, he’s a potential threat for sure, but I wouldn’t bench a pitcher off of one batter. With the .198 wOBA against righties and the Brewers posessing almost no power in the second half, I’m firing up Ross tonight.
Superstar Worth Paying For
Nelson Cruz ($5300) – What, no Cespedes and his 67 points last night? Yeah, that really happened. Cespedes scored 67 points last night. But honestly, every one and their mother will be on him today, so I’ll just profile someone else. Cruz c-r-u-s-h-e-s left handed pitching. On the season, Cruz owns a .479 wOBA against them with a .339 ISO. Seriously a .339 ISO is mind boggling. It’s not even fair. Facing Carlos Rodon, who’s given up nine home runs on the year, which is pretty low, but the numbers alone against left handed pitching is enough for me to get Cruz in my lineup.
Save Big Bucks By Drafting…
Andres Blanco ($2000) – This is just a steal. Straight up. We’re committing robbery here. Blanco on the season is batting .295 with five home runs and 14 RBIs with a .896 OPS. He’s been fantastic against lefties, owning a .455 wOBA with a .244 ISO. His price tag makes him real touhg to pass up.