Only four games will be played on this afternoon slate today that does include the game at Coors Field. Let’s get you set for this short slate, and, as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Biggest Favorites

SEA (-168) vs MIL– Ariel Miranda – The young left-handed prospect of the Mariners get the nod as the heavy favorite today against the Brewers. Miranda faces a team that leads the league in K% against lefties at 26% but also owns a .342 wOBA against them. Pitching at Safeco Field certainly is a decent boost to Miranda, who has pitched in just nine innings at home this season with one start under his belt. It was an impressive performance against the Red Sox, where he went six innings allowing just two runs on eight hits with a 5:1 K:BB ratio. Miranda certainly has the strikeout potential, as he had a K/9 of 7.7 in 19 starts in Triple-A this season. Near the bare minimum in pricing tonight, Miranda is an intriguing option.

Highest Totals

CHC vs. COL – 11.5 runs – – Well, I mean of course this is the highest projected run total on this slate. Jason Hammel and Jorge De La Rosa will take the mound for this game that wraps up the series. Hammel looks to continue to dominate, as he has not allowed a since run in the month of August. In four starts this month, Hammel owns a .184 wOBA in 20 innings with a .296 OBP and a .149 SLG. To think that Hammel will continue this streak tonight is a bit of a stretch, but it’s most certainly notable. For what it’s worth, Hammel is just $7,200 today.

Now we completely change gears to a pitcher that has been anything but dominant in Jorge De La Rosa. Business as usual here, as De La Rosa is allowing a .350 wOBA at home with a .449 SLG and nine of his 15 home runs allowed. He’s been good against lefties at Coors this season, holding them to a .297 wOBA, but righties have been smashing him. With a .368 wOBA, Kris Bryant is certainly one of the top options tonight as well as Javier Baez. For this game to reach its projected run total, it will all come down to Hammel. Can he continue in Coors today? Or will that come to a screeching halt?

Weather Concerns

No weather concerns for this slate today!

Park Factors

Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Anything at or above 1.000 favors hitters, anything below it favors pitchers.

  • Coors Field – CHC vs COL – The Cubs wrap up their series against the Rockies at Coors Field today. As always, every offensive category is favored here.
  • Petco Park – ARZ vs SDP – Petco Park actually has some offensive categories that favor hitters, believe that or not. Coming into today, runs, singles and doubles all get the nod here.
  • Safeco Field – MIL vs SEA – Safeco Field checks in as our worst ballpark for hitters on this four game slate. Only home runs get the nod here and that’s by the skin of its teeth.
  • AT&T Park – NYM vs SFG – The Mets and Giants will face off in the late game tonight. As of tonight, every category except home runs get the nod here for pitchers.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters

Worst vs LHBOPSAVGBest vs LHBOPSAVG
Matt Garza.895.309Jason Hammel.739.222
Braden Shipley.878.257Noah Syndergaard.739.282
Luis Perdomo.876.320Jorge De La Rosa.793.291

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Worst vs RHBOPSAVGBest vs RHBOPSAVG
Luis Perdomo.923.342Jason Hammel.575.204
Braden Shipley.858.300Noah Syndergaard.615.236
Jorge De La Rosa.832.280Jeff Samardzija.671.234

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

BatterOpposing SPABFP/AB
Yoenis CespedesJeff Samardzija132.61
Robinson CanoMatt Garza322.31
Nick HundleyJason Hammel182.22

  • Nothing really groundbreaking for BvP stats tonight, but that’s expected with a four game slate. We start with Cespedes taking on Samardzija. Cespedes is 4-13 with two home runs and three RBIs.
  • Next, we have Cano taking on Garza. Cano has gone 12-32 with three doubles, two home runs and seven RBIs.
  • Finally, we have Nick Hundley going up against the red hot Jason Hammel. Hundley has gone 7-18 with three doubles, a home run and two RBIs.


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Noah Syndergaard – NYM vs SFG – $10,900 – We don’t really have a ton of options to choose from here, so Thor is the obvious choice in my opinion. The park shift is most certainly playing into his favor as he takes on a Giants team that has really struggled since the All-Star Break. They have been getting better as of late, but they still own a .316 wOBA with a .333 OBP and a .395 SLG. The strikeouts have also been up a bit, with a 19.2 K%.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Paul Goldschmidt – ARZ vs. SDP (Luis Perdomo) – $5,100 – Goldy is fantastic in almost any situation you put him in. Today he faces off against Luis Perdomo, who is about as bad as it gets against righties at home. Coming into today, Perdomo owns a .527 wOBA with a .754 SLG. Putting Goldy in this type of matchup feels like a no brainer and one I’ll certainly have exposure of.

Save Big by Drafting…

Alex Dickerson – SDP vs. ARZ (Braden Shipley) – $3,300 – Value plays were tough to come by on this four game slate. However, I landed on Dickerson because I like his matchup against Braden Shipley, who is allowing a .360 wOBA to lefties with a .557 SLG and four of his six home runs in just 29 innings this season. Dickerson has been decent at the plate lately, but he does own seven home runs in his short time up in the majors with six of them coming off a right-handed pitcher.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on.  Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.