We have 13 games that will be taking place tonight after a rare afternoon slate that only featured two games. Lets get you set for this big slate tonight and as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Biggest Favorites

WAS (-250) vs ATL– Max Scherzer- The Nationals and Scherzer check in as favorites tonight as they take on the Atlanta Braves. This will be the third start for Scherzer against these Braves, against who he’s pitched a combined 13 innings, allowing six runs on nine hits with a 13:5 K:BB ratio. Scherzer is extremely expensive tonight at $13,600, which is $1,600 more than Chris Sale. The Braves aren’t nearly as bad as they were in the first half of the season, but they still aren’t great, owning a .310 wOBA against righties with a .317 OBP and a .404 SLG. Personally, I think I’d want a bit more K upside than the Braves bring for me to spend so much on Scherzer, but overall it should be a fine start for Mad Max.

Biggest Over/Unders

CHC vs. COL – 12 runs – – 12, count them, 12 projected runs for the Cubs and Rockies tonight. Mike Montgomery goes for the Cubs while top Rockies’ pitching prospect Jeff Hoffman will make his debut. Montgomery will essentially be pitching in long relief, he’s slated to pitch around three or four innings before giving way to the bullpen. Montgomery has had one start this season, facing the Royals where he pitched well, but he’s not even close to being an option tonight. Hitters should be targeted heavily in this game and I wouldn’t worry so much about L/L match ups with the like of Charlie Blackmon, as I mentioned Chicago would be going to the bullpen early in this one.

As for Hoffman, he’s also a no-go for me tonight, not just because he’s at Coors Field, but because of the strict pitch count the Rockies have set. Since late July, Hoffman has been held to around 75 pitches per start and it looks as if that will be enforced at the major league level as well. Hoffman has a solid K/9 in the minors with a 9.4 in 22 starts this season, but his walks have also been an issue with a 3.3 BB/9. All in all, this game should be heavily targeted for hitting.

Weather Concerns

BOS vs. DET (Comerica Park) – This game will have a couple of factors that aren’t very promising for tonight. First and foremost, Detroit has a threat of rain the entire night with no real signs of clearing. The risk of rain continues to go up as the night progresses, so the earlier they can start the better. Aside from the rain, a 15mph wind will be blowing in from right field.

LAD vs. CIN (Great American Ballpark) – Another game that will feature rain tonight, but it does look like we’ll have times of clearing, making it likely that they can squeeze this one in. I’d certainly check this one out closer to game time.

TOR vs. CLE (Progressive Field) – The Blue Jays and Indians should start off with no issues, it’s the rain that could come later in the night that’s causing concern. The chance of the rain is relatively low right now, but take a look closer to game time.

Park Factors

Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Anything at or above 1.000 favors hitters, anything below it favors pitchers.

  • Coors Field – CHC vs COL The Cubs continue their series against the Rockies at Coors Field tonight. As always, every offensive category is favored here.
  • Progressive Field – TOR vs CLE Progressive Field continues to be one of the most favorable ballparks for hitters this season. Every offensive category except triples is favored here.
  • Citizens Bank Park– STL vs PHI – Citizens Bank Park ranks as our most unfavorable ballpark for hitters on this 13-game slate. Coming into tonight, only home runs and triples are favored here.
  • Safeco Field–MIL vs SEA – Safeco Field checks in as our second worst ballpark for hitters tonight. Only home runs get the nod here.

Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters

Worst vs LHBOPSAVGBest vs LHBOPSAVG
Daniel Norris.956.346Drew Pomeranz.602.216
Wily Peralta.932.326Chris Sale.604.202
Chad Kuhl.877.309Brandon Finnegan.649.227

 

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Worst vs RHBOPSAVGBest vs RHBOPSAVG
Wily Peralta.950.347Max Scherzer.488.157
Mike Fiers.871.294David Phelps.489.187
Tyrell Jenkins.868.259Chad Kuhl.522.184

 

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

BatterOpposing SPABFP/AB
Hunter PenceBartolo Colon114.72
Brian McCannRicky Nolasco652.78
Billy ButlerChris Sale452.44

  • We start off our BvP stats for tonight with a small sample of Hunter Pence dominating Bartolo Colon. Pence is 6-11 with a double, two home runs, seven RBIs and two walks.
  • Our next two have some very large sample sizes to go off of. Brian McCann has gone 21-65 off of Ricky Nolasco with five doubles, eight home runs, 24 RBIs and two walks.
  • Last but certainly not least, we have Billy Butler, who has surprisingly hit Chris Sale well. Butler is 17-45 with five doubles, three home runs, 10 RBIs and four walks.


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Felix Hernandez – SEA vs MIL – $11,500 – Whatever was hindering the performance of Hernandez in the first half of the season seems to be gone. Hernandez has spun four solid starts in a row and looks to continue that trend against the Brewers tonight. It’s encouraging to see that Hernandez is inducing plenty of swings and misses again, getting 16, 9, 14 and 14 in his last four starts. Facing a Brewers team that leads the league in K% against righties, Hernandez should be in a fantastic spot at Safeco field. Hernandez certainly isn’t the strikeout guy he once was, owning just a 7.7 K/9 on the season, but it’s encouraging to see him grab 30 over his past four starts. He’s a tad bit more expensive than I would like, but with the park factor and strikeout upside going for him today, he should make for a fine play.

 

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Mark Trumbo – BAL vs. HOU (Mike Fiers) – $4,800 – Trumbo has hit a home run in two straight games against this Astros club, so why not make it three in a row tonight? Trumbo has the luxury of facing Mike Fiers tonight, who owns an absurd .412 wOBA against righties on the road with a .579 SLG and seven of his 22 home runs allowed. Trumbo continues to crush at Camden Yards, owning a .420 wOBA against righties with a .626 SLG with 16 of his home runs coming at home.

 

Save Big by Drafting…

Salvador Perez – KC vs. MIN (Hector Santiago) – $3,000 – Perez just feels like he’s way too cheap for this matchup tonight, so I’m going to jump all over this. Hector Santiago is making his fourth start for the Twins and he’s been exactly as advertised. Santiago has allowed 15 earned runs in three starts with four home runs. Kauffman Stadium won’t be doing him any favors tonight and Perez owns a .347 wOBA with a .500 SLG against lefties at home. At just $3,000, you can’t go wrong here.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on.  Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.