Not only is it Friday, we also have a full slate of games that will be kicking off our weekend. I’ll get you set for this huge slate and as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

 

 

Game Notes

Biggest Favorites

PIT (-180) vs MIA– Gerrit Cole- The Pirates and Gerrit Cole get the nod as the heavy favorites tonight as they take on the Miami Marlins. Cole is priced at an extremely friendly $7,500 price tag, but the discount is due to his lackluster production as of late. Over his last three starts, Cole has allowed 12 runs (10 earned) on 22 hits in 14 innings with a 13:5 K:BB ratio. Cole is having a hard time getting deep into games, having seen the sixth innings just four times in his last 10 starts. I wouldn’t touch him in most formats tonight on DraftKings.

 

Biggest Over/Unders

CHC  vs. COL – 11.5 runs – – Tyler Anderson and Kyle Hendricks will take the hill in Coors tonight with the highest projected run total of the night. When Anderson takes the mound at Coors, one has to wonder just how well the Cubs will do in this match up. For starters, Anderson owns the lowest OPS on the slate against lefties at .530 and he’s also been extremely solid at home, owning a .308 wOBA with a .406 SLG. Granted, his schedule at home thus far has been VERY friendly, but it still says something when he’s pitched so well at Coors.

As for Hendricks, this will be his second time facing the Rockies with that start taking place at Wrigley Field. Hendricks lasted six innings allowing four runs (three earned) on eight hits with a 5:0 K:BB ratio. He’s been better at home than on the road this season, but overall he’s been keeping hitters in check and keeping the ball in the yard. Hendricks is again another intriguing tournament play tonight that will certainly go low owned, but as always, I’m hesitant to start anyone at Coors. For what it’s worth, Hendricks hasn’t seen a wOBA higher than .294 in any month this season and has only allowed at least four runs in a start only twice.

 


Weather Concerns

BOS vs DET (Comerica Park) – Detroit will have a threat of rain all throughout game time that will spill over into the late hours of the night as well. This is a game that is certainly worth monitoring.

TOR vs CLE (Progressive Field) – Cleveland will see some rain until late tonight, but they could start this game at that point. Again, this game is certainly worth keeping an eye on.

WAS vs ATL (Turner Field) – This game should start off no problem, it’s later in the night where we may have some issues. If the rain hits, it could be long enough to throw a wrench into any starting pitching plans you had for this game.

 

The following games have a threat of rain all throughout the night and should be watched closely as we get closer to first pitch:

CHC @ COL

MIN @ KCR

OAK @ CHW


Park Factors

Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Anything at or above 1.000 favors hitters, anything below it favors pitchers.

 

  • Coors Field – CHC vs COL As of tonight, as expected, Coors favors hitters in every offensive category.

 

  • Progressive Field– TOR vs CLE – Progressive Field has swapped spots with Kauffman Stadium to rank as the number two park in baseball for hitters. Coming into this game all categories are favored here except for triples.

 

  • Tropicana Field– TEX  vs TBR – Tropicana Field ranks as the worst ballpark for hitters tonight with the Rangers coming into town. The only category favored here is walks, so at least they have that going for them.

 

  • Citizens Bank Park– STL vs PHI – Citizens Bank Park checks in as our second worst park for hitters tonight. Coming into this match-up, only home runs and triples have a favorable rating here.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters

Worst vs LHBOPSAVGBest vs LHBOPSAVG
Tim Adleman1.027.324Tyler Anderson.530.211
Bud Norris.889.287Michael Fulmer.532.193
James Shields.860.294Cole Hamels.538.186

 

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Worst vs RHBOPSAVGBest vs RHBOPSAVG
Jose Berrios1.236.345Tim Adelman.515.194
Adam Morgan.828.310Julio Teheran.552.207
James Shields.860.294Johnny Cueto.569.213

 

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

BatterOpposing SPABFP/AB
Bryce HarperJulio Teheran283.32
Daniel MurphyJulio Teheran203.15
Jose AltuveWade Miley182.66

  • Julio Teheran may have picked the wrong night to come back, as two of the Nationals hitters have hit him extremely well. Bryce Harper is 12-28 with three doubles, five home runs, 10 RBIs and four walks.
  • Daniel Murphy has also hit Teheran extremely well in his career. Coming into tonight, Murphy is 8-20 with four doubles, a home run, six RBIs and six walks.
  • Finally, we have Jose Altuve taking on Wade Miley. He hasn’t done a ton of damage against Miley, but he’s been on base a ton. Altuve is 11-18 with three doubles and a solo home run.


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Cole Hamels – TEX vs TBR – $11,100 – Tonight is going to be interesting when it comes to how highly owned Hamels could end up being. If even half of these weather problems end up coming to fruition, Hamels will be one of the top options on the night and rightfully so. Hamels hasn’t looked great as of late, but I can certainly attribute it to a somewhat tough schedule, facing the Orioles, the Rockies at Coors and the Tigers. His match up against the Rays is miles away from these, with the team owning a .301 wOBA against lefties with a 25.2 K% and just a .307 OBP. Hamels has seen his strikeouts go down a bit compared to last season, but he’s still sitting on an 8.5 K/9 on the season. Pitching in the friendly Tropicana Field will drive his popularity up, as it ranks as the worst ballpark for hitters.

 

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Stephen Piscotty – STL vs. PHI (Adam Morgan) – $4,900 – “I woke up in a new Piscotty.” Yeah, that’s my clever pun when I’m in on Stephen Piscotty. Lucky for him, Adam Morgan will make his start tonight after getting hit in the arm last Sunday. Unfortunately, he can’t chalk up this injury to his performance this season, where he owns a 6.62 ERA with a 1.62 WHIP and 16 home runs allowed in 69 innings. Morgan is prone to allowing home runs in bunches, as he’s allowed at least two in a game in four starts this season. With a .403 wOBA allowed to right-handed batters and Piscotty with his .423 wOBA and .593 SLG against lefties, we have our top hitter of the night.

Save Big by Drafting…

Kendrys Morales – KCR vs. MIN (Jose Berrios) – $3,300 – Second day in a row I’m showcasing someone from the ice cold Royals, but tonight is another decent spot for some offense. Jose Berrios comes into tonight with the highest OPS against righties at 1.236, allowing a .345 average to them. While Morales isn’t hitting at a consistent clip, you have to like this match-up for him, especially with the power potential he has. At home against righties, Morales owns a .339 wOBA.


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on.  Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.