We have 15 games going tonight on this Tuesday, which always is chalk full of games. Let’s get you ready for this huge slate and as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Biggest Favorites

CHC (-245) vs MIL– Jason Hammel- Hammel takes the hill for the second game of the double header the Brewers and Cubs are playing tonight. Hammel checks into tonight with a salary of $10,900 and is the fifth most expensive pitcher on the board. This matchup against the Brewers certainly has it’s upside with the strikeout potential, but Hammel hasn’t been able to capitalize on that in prior starts against this team. In 11 innings against the Brewers, Hammel is averaging just 10.3 FPPG with an 11:4 K:BB ratio with six runs allowed on nine hits. As I’ve mentioned in write ups on Hammel before, he’s a great real world pitcher, but I don’t see that come over in a fantasy perspective, as Hammel averages just 14 fantasy points per start. Looking at his game log, one could certainly make the case that’s he’s been pitching much better, and I can’t disagree with that. However, on a full 15 game slate, I think you can do better elsewhere and find better value.

Highest Totals

COL vs. WAS – 11.5 runs – Gio Gonzalez and Chad Bettis will take the mound in this game. Gonzalez has been having an extremely tough year for the Nationals, averaging just 12.9 FPPG on the road this season to go with a 4.34 ERA and a .320 road wOBA. Righties have been smoking him, with a .338 wOBA and a .446 SLG on the road as well. Even though Gonzalez is tough on lefties, essentially bringing down the threat of guys like Charlie Blackmon and Carlos Gonzalez, I can’t see this start going well for Gio by any means.

As for Chad Bettis, he hasn’t looked terrible as of late, but this is a team that owns a .325 wOBA against righties with a .334 OBP. At home this season, Bettis is allowing a .351 wOBA with a .461 SLG. Surprisingly, Bettis has done a good job at keeping the ball in the park at Coors, with only five of his 17 home runs allowed. As impressive as that is, the Nationals have a very good hitting ball club. I’d recommend targeting the hitters heavily here.

Weather Concerns

MIA vs. CIN (Great American Ballpark) – This game will have a chance of rain/thunderstorms all throughout the night, so this will certainly be a game worth watching.

MIN vs. ATL (Turner Field) – This game should start on time, without any problems. However, as we get around the 4th-5th inning, we could see some storms roll in. Timing will be everything for this game.

Park Factors

Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Anything at or above 1.000 favors hitters, anything below it favors pitchers.

  • Coors Field – WAS vs COL – The Nationals will enter the Thunderdome once again as they visit Coors Field. Every offensive category is favored here.
  • Progressive Field – CHW vs CLE – Progressive Field has been very kind to opposing hitters this season, as every category except triples is favored here.
  • Citizens Bank Park – LAD vs PHI – From one unfavorable park to another, The Dodgers are in town visiting Citizens Bank Park. Coming into tonight, only home runs and triples are favored here.
  • Tropicana Field – SDP vs TBR – The Padres and Rays continue their series tonight at Tropicana Field. As of tonight, only walks are favored here.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters

Worst vs LHBOPSAVGBest vs LHBOPSAVG
Anthony DeSclafani.902.316Danny Duffy.462.183
Yovani Gallardo.838.277Jose Quintana.563.213
Jeff Samardzija.827.278Gio Gonzalez.587.206

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Worst vs RHBOPSAVGBest vs RHBOPSAVG
Chase Anderson.968.317Anthony DeSclafani.511.185
Eduardo Rodriguez.851.273Corey Kluber.574.209
Chad Bettis.823.293Marco Estrada.577.171

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

BatterOpposing SPABFP/AB
Ryan RaburnGio Gonzalez134.15
Salvador PerezJustin Verlander492.59
Jose AbreuCorey Kluber312.48

  • Our first BvP stat for tonight comes from Ryan Raburn taking on Gio Gonzalez. Raburn hasn’t been what the Rockies had hoped for, and he may not even crack the lineup tonight. Nonetheless, he’s 7-13 with a double, three home runs and four RBIs.
  • Next we have Salvador Perez with some solid numbers against Justin Verlander. Perez is 23-49 with eight doubles, two home runs and 14 RBIs. I was shocked that Perez doesn’t have a single walk against Verlander though. Really, not even one?
  • Finally we have Jose Abreu taking on Corey Kluber. Abreu has gone 12-31 with two double, three home runs and seven RBIs.


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Blake Snell – TBR vs SDP – $8,700 – Snell is going to be a fantastic value on this slate tonight, and I’m thinking he MAY go a bit overlooked tonight. Look, the Padres on the surface hit left-handed pitching very well, right? True, but if you narrow down what the August 16th 2016 Padres have done against lefties, it’s a different story. We take out guys like Matt Kemp, and these numbers drop drastically. As of today, the Padres own a .319 wOBA against lefties with a .327 OBP and a .407 SLG to go with there 24.2 K%, which ranks second in the league. Snell owns a 9.2 K/9 on the season and has the luxury of pitching at Tropicana Field. I’m not saying Snell is going to be the highest scoring pitcher tonight, I just think he has tremendous value.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Kris Bryant – CHC vs. MIL (Chase Anderson) – $5,000 – A matchup against Chase Anderson for Bryant is certainly a reason to look at the third/outfield eligible hitter. Bryant is facing a pitcher that owns a .418 wOBA against right-handed batters with a .599 SLG and 14 of his 21 home runs allowed. On the road, those numbers bump up slightly to a .418 wOBA with a .650 SLG and nine of those 21 home runs. Bryant continues to tear the cover off the ball, averaging 10.3 FPPG over his last 10 games with two home runs and three doubles.

Save Big by Drafting…

Andrew Benintendi – BOS vs. BAL (Yovani Gallardo) – $2,800 – The gripe with Benintendi is that he bats too low in the batting order to be a fantasy asset. I dare you to tell that to the people who keep drafting Sandy Leon. Benintendi has been hitting extremely well since his call up and tonight gets a matchup with Yovani Gallardo, who is allowing a .349 wOBA to lefties at home. You’re going to be needing to save some salary tonight, so why not consider the young Sox rookie?

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on.  Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.