We have nine games going tonight with a pretty ugly slate of pitching on tap. Let’s take a look at what we have in store. As always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Biggest Favorites

TBR (-170) vs SDP – Drew Smyly – The Tampa Bay Rays and Drew Smyly check in as the heavy favorites for tonight as they take on the visiting Padres. Smyly has been pitching much better as of late. Over his last five games, Smyly is averaging 14.5 FPPG, which isn’t great, but’s it’s certainly an improvement. Over the course of the season, Smyly has pitched better at home than he has on the road, owning a 4.43 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP and a K/9 of 10.3. The Padres own a 24.5 K% against lefties, which ranks 2nd in the league. On a tough slate for pitching, Smyly isn’t a bad option.

Highest Totals

OAK vs. TEX – 10 runs – – Surprisingly, this isn’t the Coors Field game. Ross Detwiler takes the mound for the A’s taking on Martin Perez. This will only be the second start of the season for Detwiler and his eighth overall appearance. His issue tonight will be the fact that the Rangers hit left-handed pitchers well and are great at home. In his career, Detwiler has always struggled against right-handed batters, owning a career .352 wOBA with a .456 SLG.

Martin Perez is a stonewall against left-handed batters, but righties are a different story. Righties own a .342 wOBA against him with a .432 SLG with 12 of his 13 home runs allowed. Perez is usually never an option for fantasy purposes, as he lacks any K upside on a nightly basis. I think righties on Oakland could be a decent, sneaky stack tonight, as they game should be full of runs.

Weather Concerns

KCR vs. DET (Comerica Park) – This game will feature a chance of thunderstorms that only increases as the night goes on. If they can’t get this game in on time, it could very likely end up being postponed. Keep an eye on this one.

MIA vs. CIN (Great American Ballpark) – Miami and Cincinnati could see a delay to start the game if anything, as it clears up soon after that.

Park Factors

Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Anything at or above 1.000 favors hitters, anything below it favors pitchers.

  • Coors Field – WAS vs COL – The Nationals will enter the Thunderdome starting tonight as they visit Coors Field. Every offensive category is favored here.
  • Globe Life Park – OAK vs TEX – Globe Life Park checks in as our number two park on the night. As of tonight, every offensive category is favored here as well.
  • Tropicana Field – SDP vs TBR – Tropicana Field will be home to some interleague play tonight as the Padres come to town. Coming into this game, Tropicana Field favors walks, but just barely with a 1.001 rating.
  • Great American Ballpark – MIA vs CIN – You have to scroll a bit up the list to find the second worst offensive ballpark on this slate tonight. Great American Ballpark is next, ranked 20th overall. As of tonight, only home runs are favored here.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters

Worst vs LHBOPSAVGBest vs LHBOPSAVG
Chad Green1.138.327Martin Perez.530.175
Daniel Norris.893.318Matt Moore.649.242
Luis Perdomo.878.323Brandon Finnegan.661.234

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Worst vs RHBOPSAVGBest vs RHBOPSAVG
Luis Perdomo.930.348Max Scherzer.474.150
Daniel Norris.918.315David Phelps.511.194
Ricky Nolasco.831.301Ryan Vogelsong.567.174

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

BatterOpposing SPABFP/AB
Carlos GonzalezMax Scherzer104.3
Ian KinslerIan Kennedy123.91
Mike TroutFelix Hernandez752.53

  • Carlos Gonzalez hasn’t faced Scherzer many times in his career, but he’s made all three of his hits against him count. Gonzalez is 3-10 with three solo home runs and two walks.
  • Ian Kinsler is another batter that hasn’t faced his opposing pitcher many times, but he’s surely dominated these matchups. Kinsler has gone 7-12 off Ian Kennedy with four doubles, a home run and four RBIs.
  • Finally, we have one of the largest BvPs that you’ll see on a normal basis, and that’s Mike Trout taking on Felix Hernandez. Trout has gone 28-75 with four doubles, two triples, six home runs, 18 RBIs and five walks.


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Robbie Ray – ARZ vs NYM – $9,600 – This is going to be a tough slate for pitching, so I’m landing on Ray tonight as one of my top options. He faces a Mets team he just saw in his last start, where he put up 22 DK points, pitching seven innings, allowing no runs on three hits with a 4:0 K:BB ratio. Granted, the park shift from Citi Field to Chase Field is a big one, but this is also a Mets team that is not hitting well on the road. Coming into tonight, they own a .309 wOBA with a .298 OBP and a .426 SLG. You’ll get some K upside with Ray tonight against a Mets team with a 23.1 K% against lefties.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Jayson Werth – WAS vs. COL (Jorge De La Rosa) – $5,400 – Werth has been one of my favorite value plays all season when facing a left-handed pitcher. He’s been crushing them this entire year, and tonight should be no different taking on Jorge De La Rosa. Coming into tonight, Werth owns a .463 wOBA against lefties on the road with a .667 SLG and a 1.104 OPS with 4 of his 15 home runs. Werth is locked in at the plate as of late, hitting 3 home runs in his last 10 games and averaging 9.6 fantasy points.

Save Big by Drafting…

Aaron Judge – NYY vs. TOR (R.A. Dickey) – $3,100 – The new era of the Yankees looks like it has begun, and a big part of that is going to be Aaron Judge. Playing in just his third game tonight, Judge has already smacked two home runs at Yankee Stadium while going 4-10 with four runs scored. Jude will take on Dickey tonight, who is allowing a .339 wOBA to righties on the road with a .484 SLG and 8 of his 26 home runs allowed. As cheap as his salary is, Judge is worth the look.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on.  Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.