Back to a full slate of games tonight. After those short slates we have to endure, it’s nice to bounce back with a full night of baseball. Let’s jump right into things and as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
h2. Heaviest Pitcher Favorites
Matt Harvey vs. Colorado Rockies (-240) – I’m telling you, the Rockies are the new Phillies when it comes to Vegas. Since the trade deadline, they’ve consistently been in this section. Tonight, they matchup against Matt Harvey. He comes into his start against the Rockies with a 2.76 ERA to go with a 1.02 WHIP and 131 strikeouts in 140 innings pitched. Harvey is looking like the pitcher we’re used to seeing, posting a 1.64 ERA in his last nine starts. On the year, he’s allowing a .234 woBA to righties and a .313 against lefties. The Rockies are seemingly in a bit of a slump lately, as their wOBA in the past two weeks sits at 17th in the league at .315. They’ve also struck more than any other team in the majors during that span, something that I’m sure will bode well with Harvey and his 8.42 K/9. Harvey is going to be a bit expensive, being the third most expensive pitcher on the night at $10,900. However, with how the Rockies are hitting lately, he certainly could be worth the price.
Drew Hutchison vs. Oakland A’s (-214)- Speaking of teams that aren’t hitting well, Drew Hutchison gets his start tonight against the A’s Hutchison is someone I love to use as a great example of why you should never factor in wins for anything. Coming in at 10-2 with a 5.42 ERA is a perfect example. Overall, Hutchison has been an easy one to knock around, owning the second highest wOBA on night against righties and a .323 against lefties, Hutchison certainly isn’t earning these wins from his pitching. Oakland has been struggling mightly these past few weeks, with the third to worst wOBA in the league in the past two weeks at .274. Oakland is at still one of the toughest teams in the league to strikeout, which takes away from a pitchers value when starting them against the Athletics. To be quite honest, even against a team that is struggling to hit, I’ll be keeping Hutchison on the board tonight. He certainly won’t be hurting your salary cap tonight, at only $5700, but I’d rather pay the price for some good pitching than roster someone who will have limited upside against a team that’s tough to strikeout.
Jeremy Hellickson vs. Philadelphia Phillies (-181) – Geez, with the pitchers Vegas is a fan of tonight, you’d think it was a short slate or something. Hellickson enters tonight with a 5.06 ERA to go along with a 1.38 WHIP. His wOBA against each type of batter is what you’d expect. .325 against righties and .363 against lefties. After a nice little stretch of games for the Phillies, where they were the top team overall in wOBA over a two week span, they’ve come crashing back down to earth and now sit at 15th over the last two weeks. They’re also striking out a lot over that same time span, good for 5th in the league. Like Hutchison, I can’t find myself running through the streets alerting everyone that they must roster Hellickson tonight. I certainly am someone who loves to take the YOLO approach every once in awhile, because why the hell not, but I don’t think tonight is one of those nights.
h2. Over/Under Lines
h3. Top Overall Game Over/Unders
Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks (Chase Field) – 9 Over/Under- So, another reason why I’ll stay off Hellickson tonight. I will almost never take a pitcher who is projected to be in the highest run total game of the night. We have two games that were projected at nine runs, highest on the night. Would you know the Blue Jays and Oakland is the other game with the nine runs projected? Yup, Hutchison. I’ll stay far away from pitching in that one. Anyways, back to his mess. We’ve gone over the Phillies production and Hellickson, so let’s look at David Buchanan for the Phillies. Lol. He’s been a train wreck. I won’t even put that nicely for a family member (he has to be, right?) A .362 wOBA against righties and a .429 against lefties? I’m certainly not making this up. I wish I could say I was making those numbers up but I can’t say I am. The Diamondbacks have hit righties well this season, with a .318 wOBA on the season with some decent power. You should certainly have some exposure to the Diamondbacks tonight.
h2. Toughest Left/Right Matchups
h3. Toughest Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters
I wanted to try something different in this section here this week. If you’ve read this article before, you know that I always profile the pitchers average against either a LHB OR RHB. For this week, I wanted to use the wOBA average to profile these pitchers. Let me know what you think and if you like this better.
Carlos Rodon vs. LA Angels – One thing is common amongst the best wOBA’s with the lefties and righties today. They both fall into the same game tonight. Rodon kicks us off with the best wOBA against lefties on the night, at .255. We’ll see Rodon in this section again, but not for a good reason.
Hector Santiago vs. Chicago White Sox – The second best on the night belongs to his opponent on the night, Santiago. He’s been solid all season and comes into tonight with a .257 wOBA against lefties.
h3. Toughest Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters
Joe Ross vs. LA Dodgers – This is going to be a tough game if you bat right handed. Ross comes into tonight with the best wOBA against righties at .154! By far the lowest out of anyone pitching tonight. Don’t let the small sample fool you, this kid has been money since his call up.
Zack Greinke vs. Washington Nationals- Just like the previous section, we have opposing pitchers coming with the best two wOBA’s on the night. Greinke, who’s been a freak of nature this season, checks in at .210 on the season.
Best Left/Right Matchups
Easiest Pitcher vs. Left Handed Batters.
Mike Lorenzen vs. San Diego Padres– When I saw that David Buchanan was pitching tonight, I said to myself, not a chance someone is worse than he is against lefties. I can’t believe I was wrong. Lorenzen comes in here and is like “Hey! I am!” He owns a .437 wOBA against those lefties.
David Buchanan vs. Arizona Diamondbacks – Here we go again. A Buchanan ruining my reputation with his pitching. Although, the Buchanan reputation may have been ruined on my own. Regardless, Buchanan is not very good when it comes to lefties. He owns a whopping .429 wOBA against them. My goodness.
h3. Easiest Pitcher vs. Right Handed Batters
Carlos Rodon vs. LA Angels- Give Rodon a matchup against all lefties and he’s GOLDEN. Throw some right handed batters into the mix and holy crap, what just happened!? Rodon has the worst wOBA on the night against righties, coming in a .394.
Drew Hutchison vs. Oakland A’s – The only saving grace for Hutchison tonight, is the fact that the A’s are one of the worst hitting ball clubs in the majors right now. Still, it might not be enough to save his .384 wOBA against righties.
h2. Hottest Hitters
Ian Desmond ($3100) – Desmond had a really tough start to the season, that even carried over to after the All Star break. Well, better late than never right? The Nationals shortstop is 8 for his last 23 with three home runs, six RBIs, six runs scored and three stolen bases.
Andrew McCutchen ($4900) – Another player you could throw in the conversation about have a really tough start to the season. However, that seems to be the normal thing for McCutchen. He just likes to take an extended Spring Training into the regular season, that’s all! McCutchen is 9 for his last 16 with two home runs, eight RBIs, seven runs scored, and what the hell, he stole a base as well because, why not?
Khris Davis ($3600) – Cheat Sheet pinch hitter Ryan Noonan called this one the other day and he nailed it. Davis is on fire right now and for cheap money. Davis is 8 for his last 22 with four home runs, 12 RBIs, and five runs scored.
h2. Best Batter vs. Pitcher Matchups
Robinson Cano vs. Chris Tillman- Today, once again, is a bit light in the BvP world, so were going to have a couple guys on here with small samples against their pitcher tonight. Cano is the exception to that rule as he faces Tillman. Cano is 12-29 against him with three extra base hits, two of those being home runs, and a 1.124 OPS.
Jose Altuve vs. Madison Bumgarner – Altuve hasn’t seen much of Bumgarner, but he has some decent success against him. Altuve is 5-14 with a home run and a .929 OPS against the Giants’ ace.
Neil Walker vs. Carlos Martinez- Again, not a big sample size here. Walker has only faced Martinez 13 times and his four hits to show for it. Three of those hits went for extra bases with two of them being home runs. Add that to a 1.231 OPS and I’d say Walker has done well in the short amount of time.
h2. Weather Concerns
The Rockies and New York Mets have a threat of rain during their game tonight. It shouldn’t be enough to cancel, but it could disrupt their play. Watch this one closely.
h2. One Pitcher To Build Lineups Around
Taylor Jungmann ($8700) – Jungmann is really, really good. He has some electric stuff that can get batters out, sprinkled in with some strikeouts and you’re hitting a gold mine for $8700. Truly, you can’t beat his price. It amazes me he’s still as low as he is. Tonight, Jungmann gets the strikeout happy Cubs, who have the highest strikeout % in the league for the past month at 23.8. Jungmann comes into tonight’s start with a 2.26 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP and 61 strikeouts in 71 innings. His wOBA against righties is fantastic at .249 with a .300 against lefties. He’s done a fantastic job with keeping the ball in the park, giving up only two home runs on the season. Against a team that is struggling with power over the past month, 23rd during that time, and their struggles offensively as a whole, Jungmann is going to be REALLY tough to pass up at $8700.
h2. Superstar Worth Paying For
AJ Pollock ($4700) – Pollock gets that matchup against David Buchanan and his .362 wOBA against righties. Pollock has been solid this season, coming in with a .306 average with 11 home runs, 47 RBIs, and an .820 OPS. Averaging 8.8 points per game, Pollock has been hitting well against RHP this season. Entering tonight, Pollock is hitting .306 against them with nine of his 11 home runs on the season. If you want to get a bit more advanced, that’s good for a .361 wOBA with a .164 ISO against RHP. With how poorly Buchanan is pitching this season, Pollock sounds like a great option in your outfield tonight.
h2. Save Big Bucks By Drafting…
Cesar Hernandez ($3400) – Hernandez continues to dwell in the lower tiered pricing on DraftKings, while he continues to rack up the points. He’s been a double digit scoring machine lately, with four out of his last five games. Enticed yet? He’s always a threat to steal a bag, with 14 of his 17 coming off RHP. His wOBA against righties sits a .311 on the season, which just continues to trend upward. Hernandez is not a power threat, with only one home runs on the season, but his ability to get on base, .342 vs righties, and his ability to swipe a bag, is always something you’d want to shoot for with these low priced players.