Wednesday brings us a solid 12-game slate. Let’s dive right into the information and get you set for tonight. As always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Top Pitcher

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres – Rich Hill ($10,800)

The Dodgers are once again heavily favored against the Padres tonight as they send Rich Hill to the mound. Hill only faced the Padres once last season and had a very, well, Rich Hill type start. Lasting six innings, he allowed no runs, one hit and he had an 8:2 K:BB ratio. Rostering Hill won’t pose any issues as we have 11 pitchers that are priced between $7K-$9K. The Padres will enter this contest with the lowest implied team total tonight at 2.7 runs.

Highest Totals

San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks – 9.5 projected runs

The highest projected run total of the night belongs to the Giants and the Diamondbacks. Taijuan Walker will make his first National League start against the Giants at Chase Field. Walker has some good stuff, but he’ll be facing one of the toughest teams to strikeout, the Giants had just a 17.7 K% in 2016. I’m a bit worried about him pitching tonight in Chase Field, and it certainly doesn’t help that the Giants are at five projected runs, the highest team total on the night.

As for the D-backs, they’ll face Matt Moore, who was solid against them in 2016. Moore faced this team three times last season pitching 19.1 innings allowing eight runs on 20 hits with a 21:3 K:BB ratio. On the flip side, the D-Backs were one of the best hitting clubs against left-handed pitchers, owning a .348 wOBA with a .477 SLG. Moore is a nice option when in San Fran, but I don’t trust him tonight.

Colorado Rockies vs. Milwaukee Brewers – 9 runs

We have multiple games with a projection of nine runs, but I think this game can certainly get there. Tyler Chatwood will take the mound for the Rockies facing the Brewers. Chatwood was fantastic on the road last season, averaging 19.2 FPPG in 13 starts with a 6.6 K/9. The Brewers owned the highest K% against righties last season at 25.8%, so that certainly plays in Chatwood’s favor.

On the other side, Wily Peralta will take the hill of the Brewers. He was able to shut the Rockies down in his only start against them last season, but let’s not get all excited here just yet. At home, Peralta allowed a .370 wOBA with a .518 SLG and a .354 OBP to opposing hitters last season. Left-handed batters especially hit him hard here, tabbing him with a .413 wOBA, a .619 SLG and hitting seven of his 19 total home runs allowed. The Rockies currently own a 4.7 run projection on the night.

Weather Concerns

1) Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds (Great American Ballpark) – This game will feature some thunderstorms early in the evening that seemingly will pass shortly thereafter. I’d expect at least a delay here, but they might be able to squeeze this one in.

Park Factors

Park Factors are ranked on a scale of 1.000. Anything above 1.000 is favorable towards the hitters. Anything below that mark favors pitchers. All stats come from the 2016 season.

  • Chase Field – San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks – Chase Field favored all offensive categories last season, especially triples that had a rating of 2.032.
  • Fenway Park – Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Boston Red Sox – Fenway Park checks in as the number two ballpark on this slate. Last season, all offensive categories were favored here except walks.
  • Minute Maid Park – Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros – Minute Maid Park is our least favorable ballpark for hitters tonight. Last season the only category that got the nod for hitters were triples.
  • Dodger Stadium – San Diego Padres vs. L.A. Dodgers – Dodger Stadium is not exactly the place you want to play if you’re a hitter. In 2016, we didn’t see a single category that favored batters.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHBOPSAVGBest vs. LHBOPSAVG
Wily Peralta.880.307Rich Hill.522.218
Jered Eickhoff.822.278Chris Sale.585.197
Michael Pineda.801.272Cole Hamels.605208

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHBOPSAVGBest vs. RHBOPSAVG
Wily Peralta.832.304Rich Hill.532.188
Taijuan Walker.809.285Charlie Morton.559.226
Brandon Finnegan.781.241Jered Eickhoff.645220

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

HitterOpposing SPABFP/AB*
Adrian GonzalezTrevor Cahill303.03
Anthony RizzoLance Lynn292.55

*(Fantasy Points Per At Bat)


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Chris Sale – Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates – $11,200 – If you’ve read my articles in the past, you know I hate showcasing the most expensive pitcher on the slate because quite frankly, it’s usually a given. However, I can’t get myself away from starting Sale tonight in his Red Sox debut. The Pirates were 7th in the league last season in K% against lefties at 23.1%. Sale was supposedly more focused on getting outs rather than strikeouts and still managed a 9.2 K/9 on the year. The ultimate competitor, I think Sale will have a little extra boost to showcase his stuff for his new team.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Trea Turner – Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins – $5,000 – Turner was fantastic against right-handed batters at home last season, so I love this spot for him against Dan Straily tonight. Straily was hurt by the long ball many times last season, allowing 31 home runs last with 11 of those coming on the road against righties. Turner will look to build upon his .417 wOBA at home against righties with a .610 SLG.

Save Big by Drafting…

Chris Owings – San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks- $3,000 – You might have made a face when you saw Owings’ name here, but his splits against lefties make him worthy. Last season at Chase Field, Owings owned a .430 wOBA with a .652 SLG and a .392 OBP. As I mentioned earlier, I’m not a big fan of Matt Moore in a hitter’s park tonight, so I’ll jump on this matchup and save some salary.

Stack Em Up

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants (Matt Moore) – Let’s just go for it all, shall we? As I mentioned, the D-Backs were one of the best hitting clubs against lefties last season and they haven’t changed much. Granted, they don’t have Jean Segura, but a healthy A.J. Pollock can fill in nicely. With so many mid-tier pitchers going tonight, fitting a D-Backs stack shouldn’t be a problem.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.