Game Notes

Biggest Favorites

LAD (-175) vs. SDP – Alex Wood –  Is this really the best we could come up with today? Alex Wood is the most favored pitcher on the night? Yikes. Priced at $6,400 tonight, Wood has 100% earned his low salary, and it’s not because he’s a bargain. Averaging 6 FPPG, Wood has struggled immensely in the early going this season. Wood owns a 6.00 ERA with a 1.76 WHIP and a 5.1 K/9. I’ve said before that the Padres are one of my favorite teams to target against because of their poor hitting and based on how much they strikeout, averaging 9.3 per game. However, with how poorly Wood has pitched and his his low K/9 to begin the season, I’ll happily stay far away from this one.

SEA (-160) vs. KCR – Felix Hernandez – Hernandez checks in as the second highest favorite of the night taking on the Royals. Hernandez enters tonight’s start with a 1.80 ERA to go with a 1.16 WHIP and a 8.6 K/9. This is a bit of a tough spot for Hernandez, as the Royals are a good hitting team and they don’t strike out much, ranked 27th in the league. At the same time, the Royals are not a patient team; they rank 28th in walks, something that has really given Hernandez trouble this season. He owns a 5.4 BB/9 in the early going here, but the Royals being a free swinging team might take that problem out of the equation tonight. Overall, Hernandez should be able to handle the Royals, just don’t expect a high strikeout game.

Highest Totals

COL vs ARZ – 10 runs – A game that isn’t in Coors Field in double digits is something we love to see for hitters. Tyler Chatwood and Robbie Ray take the mound for their respective teams in the highest projected run total of the night. Both of these team are near the top 10 in every offensive category, which spells trouble for their starting pitchers. With Chatwood owning a .397 wOBA against righties and Ray a .374 wOBA against righties, you can see which batters will be the ones to target in this one. This might be a game you’re better off having exposure to than trying to fade, as you’re getting Coors Field like runs with normal hitter salaries to choose from.

DET vs MIN – 9 runs – We have a few games with a projected total of nine runs, but I think this game intrigues me the most. First off, the Tigers are starting their number one pitching prospect tonight in Michael Fulmer. Getting the Twins as his first start certainly makes it easier, but we have yet to see how he pitches in the majors. Last season in Triple-A, Fulmer posted a 1.88 ERA in 15 starts with an 8.6 K/9. For the Twins we have Phil Hughes, who has pitched relatively well for someone named Phil Hughes. He does take on a Tigers team that is ranked 9th in home runs, and the long ball has always been a problem for him. I think this game brings a lot of potential for runs and is one I’ll be looking at targeting tonight.

Weather Concerns

1) LAA vs TEX (Globe Life Park) – This game could potentially see a delayed start, as thunderstorms could be rolling through near first pitch. However, it looks as if it should clear up soon after. I wouldn’t worry very much about weather in this one, but make sure to check the forecast closer to game time.

Park Factors

Park Factors are ranked on a scale of 1.000. Anything above 1.000 is favorable towards the hitters. Anything below that mark, favors pitchers.

  • Camden Yards – CHW vs BAL – Camden Yards was ranked the third best overall ballpark for hitters in 2015. During that span, it had a favorable rating for hitters in runs, home runs and singles.
  • Fenway Park – NYY vs. BOS -Fenway was the 4th overall ballpark in 2015 for hitters, favoring hitters in runs, singles, doubles and triples.
  • Citi Field  – SFG vs. NYM – Both of these teams have pitchers parks for their home stadium, so nothing really new for these teams. Citi Field didn’t have a single category favoring hitters last season.
  • Dodger Stadium – SDP vs. LAD – Dodger stadium was ranked 23rd last season, as it only favored hitters in home runs (by the absolute minimum with a rating of 1.000) and doubles.

Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters

Juan Nicasio0.9690.348Drey Smyly0.5070.157
Mike Wright0.9190.322Alex Wood0.5170.223
Aaron Sanchez0.8780.282Carlos Rodon0.5240.194

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

Phil Hughes0.8690.304Aaron Sanchez0.4350.163
Mike Wright0.8550.258Corey Kluber0.5490.197
Carlos Rodon0.7990.272Juan Nicasio0.6340.226

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

HitterOpposing SPABFP/AB
Mike TroutColbly Lewis303.53
Miguel CabreraPhil Hughes383.26
Albert PujolsColby Lewis262.53

  • After a very sad state for BvP yesterday, we have some solid ones today. Trout starts us off going 12-30 against Lewis with a double, two triples, four home runs, 11 RBIs and four walks.
  • Miguel Cabrera hasn’t exactly been crushing the ball lately, but he does just that against Phil Hughes. Cabrera is 17-38 with five doubles, five home runs, 13 RBIs and a walk.
  • Finally, Pujols also has some good numbers against Lewis going 9-26 with a double, three home runs, seven RBIs and two walks.

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Drew Smyly – TBR vs. TOR – $10,400 – It’s amazing to me that it’s almost the month of May and I’m still starting pitchers against the Blue Jays. The Jays continue to struggle at the plate and continue to strike out,  averaging 9.4 per game. The Jays haven’t been hitting LHP well either, owning a team batting average of .225 with a SLG of .382. Smyly enters tonight with a 10.3 K/9 and a fantastic 2.51 ERA with a WHIP of 0.73. Averaging 26.3 FPPG, Smyly feels like he’s in the best position tonight to get something done from the rubber, as the rest of the pitching options are in tough matchups. Smyly is by far my number one option for tonight.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Mike Trout – LAA vs TEX (Colby Lewis) – $5,400 – It’s been quite awhile since I’ve been on Trout, but today feels like a good day to start up again. With his solid numbers against Lewis tied in with the fact that he’s really starting to heat up at the plate, Trout is a solid option on this slate. Lewis is always prone to giving up some home runs, as evidenced by the six he’s allowed in just 24 innings this season. Lewis has been pitching better against RHB than he has in the past, but Trout comes into tonight owning a .391 wOBA against RHP this season with a .294 ISO. The Angels have seemingly been a contrarian pick this season, so I don’t think Trout will be too highly owned tonight.

Save Big by Drafting…

Corey Dickerson – TBR vs TOR (Aaron Sanchez) – $3,400 – Dickerson at just $3,400 feels like a gift from the baseball Gods today. Dickerson has been hitting right-handed pitching extremely well this season, coming into tonight with a .404 wOBA with an ISO of .385. Getting those kind of numbers at such a low salary is going to be hard to not take advantage of. Sanchez has struggled against left-handed batters his entire career, owning a .351 wOBA in his two and half years in the majors. Truly, this is one matchup I’d really be hard pressed to pass up.

Stack Em Up

BAL vs. CHW (Carlos Rodon) – Rodon is a solid pitcher, he just has his struggles against right-handed batters. I’ve said this quite recently (yesterday), and I’ll say it again today. The Orioles are not a team you want to struggle against right-handed batters with. Coming into tonight, Rodon owns a .352 wOBA against right-handed batters. Last season, his first season in the majors, was no different, as his wOBA was .350. The Orioles are most likely going to be one of the top stacks on the night, but I can’t see myself passing them up either. Wayyyyyyyy too many weapons that bat from the right side for the Orioles.