A full 15-game slate will be taking place on Friday night with a plethora of solid pitching options to choose from. Let’s jump right into all the information, and, as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Top Pitcher

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays – Marcus Stroman ($9,100) – Stroman and the Blue Jays are the heavy favorites on tonight’s slate as they welcome the Tampa Bay Rays to the Rogers Centre. It was a bit surprising to me, seeing some of the other big names on this slate. Nonetheless, Stroman will be taking on the Rays for the second time this season after pitching 6.1 innings allowing one run on six hits with a 5:2 K: BB ratio in his first start. The Rays continue to be one of the leaders in K% against right-handed pitchers wit a 24.7% coming into tonight to go along with a .321 wOBA and a .424 SLG. I think Stroman could make a decent SP2 tonight, but I’m certainly not building my team around him. With so many big names taking the mound tonight, Stroman will likely be an afterthought.

Highest Totals

Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks – 10 projected runs – Another high total at Chase Field tonight as the Rockies come to town. Two left-handed pitchers will be taking the mound with Kyle Freeland and Robbie Ray dealing with the Rockies and D-Backs respectively. The D-Backs opened with a 5.6 implied run total, which is by far the highest on this slate. It shouldn’t come as a surprise, as the D-Backs have been mashing at home this season. They currently own a .394 wOBA with a .542 SLG and a .381 OBP. With players like A.J Pollock, Chris Owings and Paul Goldschmidt hitting extremely well thus far, this should be a high-scoring affair tonight.

Weather Concerns

No weather concerns!

Park Factors

Park Factors are ranked on a scale of 1.000. Anything above 1.000 is favorable towards the hitters. Anything below that mark favors pitchers.

  • Chase Field – Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks – Every offensive category was favored here in 2016, especially triples, which had the highest rating of any ballpark.
  • Fenway Park – Chicago Cubs vs. Boston Red Sox – Fenway Park is our number two ballpark for the night as the Cubs come to town. All offensive categories were favored here last season except for walks.
  • Minute Maid Park  – Oakland A’s vs. Houston Astros – Minute Maid Park was the worst ranked ballpark in 2016, only favoring triples last season.
  • Dodger Stadium – Philadelphia Phillies vs. L.A. Dodgers – The Phillies enter no man’s land regarding stadiums tonight when they visit Dodger Stadium. No offensive categories were favored here last season.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHBOPSAVGBest vs. LHBOPSAVG
Nick Martinez1.022.310Jake Arrieta.612.194
Mike Pelfrey.923.351Jacob deGrom.624.241
Kyle Gibson.886.326Drew Pomeranz.643.240

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHBOPSAVGBest vs. RHBOPSAVG
Chase Anderson.930.311Max Scherzer.477.156
Luis Perdomo.834.309Jake Arrieta.557.194
Mike Pelfrey.828.312Jeff Samardzija.639.225

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

HitterOpposing SPABFP/AB*
Michael ConfortoMax Scherzer123.91
Evan LongoriaMarcus Stroman242.37
Adam JonesCC Sabathia732.01

*(Fantasy Points Per At Bat)


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Max Scherzer – WAS vs. NYM – $12,700 – I’m always a bit skeptical about paying the big dollars for a pitcher, but I’m ok with doing so with Mad Max tonight. He’s coming off an impressive start against these Mets where he pitched eight innings allowing three runs on five hits with a 9:1 K:BB ratio. Over his last three starts, Scherzer is allowing just a 15% hard contact rate with a K/9 of just over 11. He may be the most expensive pitcher on this slate, but I think he’ll be worth the price of admission.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Paul Goldschmidt – ARI vs. COL – $5,100 – It’s going to be really hard for me not to showcase Goldy when he’s at home against a left-handed pitcher, and I can’t keep away tonight. Freeland has shown some flashes of brilliance thus far, but this is such poor matchup for him. If you don’t recall, Goldy posted a .519 wOBA at home against lefties with a .714 SLG and a .554 OBP. In a short sample so far this season, he’s right back at it with a .423 wOBA with a .545 SLG and a .467 OBP.

Save Big by Drafting…

Nick Castellanos – DET vs. CWS – $3,800 – Castellanos will be matched up against Mike Pelfrey, who was unimpressive against the Indians in his season debut. Pelfrey is coming off a season where he allowed a .361 wOBA to right-handed batters with a .447 SLG and a .381 OBP. Castellanos thrived against righties at home last season, posting a 387 wOBA with a .508 SLG and a .394 OBP.

Stack Em Up

Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees (CC Sabathia) – They aren’t the most appealing stack of the night, but I’m thinking Sabathia is not going to come out of this game unscathed. Over his last three starts, Sabathia is allowing a whopping 42% hard hit rate to opposing hitters. Sabathia has only made one home start thus far, and it was a good one against the Cardinals, but his road numbers may be painting a different picture of his pitching as of late. Coming into tonight, the Orioles own a .322 wOBA on the road with a 457 SLG and a .208 ISO.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.