With a short four game slate on tap tonight, it doesn’t leave much room for error when picking your players. With that being said, I’ll try to guide you in the right direction. As always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Biggest Favorites

BOS (-220) vs. ATL – Clay Buchholz – Buchholz is truly someone that is extremely hard to figure out. On any given night, it’s near impossible to figure out what you’ll get from him. He has flashes of brilliance, only to lose it in a matter of seconds. He enters what should be a solid matchup against the Braves tonight with a 6.33 ERA to go with a 1.50 WHIP and a 17:9 K:BB ratio in four starts. We all know the Braves are one of the worst offensive teams in the league, but truly, I still am not sold on Buchholz tonight. Needless to say, he’ll be a popular option tonight, even though I can’t say I’m on board.

MIA (-140) vs. LAD – Jose Fernandez – Just like Jake Arrieta this afternoon, I truly believe Fernandez will be somewhere between 80-85% owned across the board tonight. Fading him in such a short slate isn’t the safest thing to do, to put it lightly. As the most expensive pitcher on this short slate, Fernandez comes into this matchup with a 4.37 ERA to go with a 1.28 WHIP and a 32:11 K:BB ratio. The walks have clearly been a concern, as he owns a 4.3 BB/9 in the early going. Besides that, it’s almost been business as usual as opposing hitters are averaging a .280 wOBA against him.

Highest Totals

STL  vs ARZ – 9 runs – First of all, let me just say, it feels glorious to not have to talk about Coors Field today. It gets old, quickly. This game tonight features Michael Wacha taking on Rubby De La Rosa. If you’ve read these Cheat Sheets before, you know how much I love targeting hitters against ol’ Rubby. He’s coming off a solid outing against the Pirates, but he’s still continuing to struggle against left-handed batters, owning a .375 wOBA against them. It’s the opposite for Wacha, who’s been struggling against right-handed batters, owning a .343 wOBA.

CWS vs BAL – 9 runs – This game features one of the other pitchers I love to target hitters against, John Danks. Danks struggles immensely against right-handed batters, and you couldn’t pick a worse team to face off against tonight. With so many big bats in the Orioles lineup batting from the right side, this truly could be a nightmare start for him. In three starts this season, Danks owns a .381 wOBA against righties while allowing two home runs. On the other side, Tyler Wilson goes for the O’s, making his second start of the season. Against the Royals, Wilson threw five innings allowing three runs on six hits with a two strikeouts.

Weather Concerns

1) CHW vs BAL (Camden Yards) – This matchup features a chance of rain all throughout the night. It doesn’t seem like a big threat, but it could disrupt the flow of play at any point. Monitor this one closely, as this could dramatically effect your lineup.

Park Factors

Park Factors are ranked on a scale of 1.000. If an offensive category has a rating of 1.000 or above, it favors the hitters. Anything below 1.000 favors the pitchers.

  • Camden Yards – CHW vs BAL – Camden Yards was ranked the third best overall ballpark for hitters in 2015. During that span, it had a favorable rating for hitters in runs, home runs, and singles.
  • Fenway Park – ATL vs BOS –  Fenway was the 4th overall ballpark in 2015 for hitters, favoring hitters in runs, singles, doubles and triples.
  • Dodger Stadium – MIA vs. LAD – Dodger stadium was ranked 23rd last season, as it only favored hitters in home runs (by the absolute minimum with a rating of 1.000) and doubles.
  • Chase Field – STL vs ARZ – This isn’t a bad park by any means, but on a four game slate, it ranks as the second worst. Chase Field favored hitters in runs, singles, doubles, triples and walks. Again, by no means is this a pitchers park.

Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters

Jhoulys Chacin0.9820.319Clay Buchholz0.6140.239
Rubby De La Rosa0.9490.315Michael Wacha0.6170.215

Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters

John Danks0.8210.294Jose Fernandez0.4460.176
Tyler Wilson0.7960.297Jhoulys Chacin0.4970.172

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

HitterOpposing SPABFP/AB
Nolan ReimoldJohn Danks192.68
J.J. HardyJohn Danks252.24

  • Well, this is a pretty sad state of BvP for today, but that’s what to expect on a four game slate. Reimond, even though he hasn’t started much this season, is 8-19 with a double, triple, home runs, three RBIs and two walks.
  • Hardy comes in as well with some decent numbers against Danks. Hardy is 9-25 with four doubles, a home runs, four RBIs and three walks.

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Kenta Maeda – LAD vs MIA– $10,000 –  Maeda has been a stud in his first year in the majors. Posting a microscopic 0.36 ERA with a 0.87 WHIP with an 8.1 K/9. He faces off against a good hitting Miami team that will single you to death and not score any runs. It’s extremely evident as they rank seventh overall in batting average, but then fall all the way down to 26th in runs and 15th in OPS. Oh, let’s not forget they rank 29th in home runs with 13. With some people gravitating toward Fernandez, Maeda is certainly someone that will be highly owned, but not as much as Fernandez. Unless you’re going for the bottom of the barrel tonight with pitching, it’s going to be near impossible to get someone who’s low owned.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Mark Trumbo – BAL vs CHW (John Danks) – $4,500 – Even at $4,500, Trumbo still feels somewhat cheap with the production he’s been bringing since joining the Orioles. Batting .359 with five home runs, 17 RBIs and a .988 OPS, Trumbo faces off against John Danks and his struggles against right-handed batters. Trumbo owns a .537 wOBA against lefties with an absurd .722 ISO. Trumbo is hitting out of his mind right now, and I can’t find myself building a lineup without him tonight.

Save Big by Drafting…

Brock Holt – BOS vs. ATL (Jhoulys Chacin) – $3,400 – Holt is someone that keeps getting overlooked, especially when building those Red Sox stacks. Holt checks in tonight with a $3,400 price tag and owns a .331 wOBA against right handed pitching in the early going. Chacin owns a career .335 wOBA against lefties, and I think this puts Holt in a great spot.

Stack Em Up

BAL vs CWS (John Danks) – We don’t have much to choose from here, so I think Baltimore has to be the obvious choice. Doing a STL stack against ARZ is also a very acceptable thought as well. But in a hitter friendly park like Camden Yards against someone who struggles immensely against right-handed batters, how can you not like this spot for BAL?