Thursday night brings us just a four game slate of baseball. Let’s jump right into all the information for tonight, and as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Top Pitcher

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays – Adam Wainwright ($8,500) – On a four-game slate with Chris Sale on the mound, I was shocked to see he wasn’t the biggest favorite tonight. Instead, Wainwright and the Cardinals take that honor. I think it’s quite the testament to how bad this Blue Jays’ offense is right now. These teams are playing their first game of today’s double-header right now, so those numbers won’t be included here. As of writing, the Jays are in the bottom five in the league in wOBA, OPS, OBP and SLG against right-handed bats. Their K% is one of the highest in the league against righties, checking in at 23.9%. Wainwright hasn’t looked good thus far this season, averaging just 8.5 FPPG in four starts, but this is the best matchup he’s had as of yet. If you’re playing tournaments tonight, Wainwright could be a guy to help differentiate your lineup from the rest of the field.

Highest Totals

San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks – 10.5 projected runs – These two teams will battle once more at Chase Field tonight as they send out Jered Weaver and Taijuan Walker to pitch for their respective teams. The D-Backs have a projected run total of six runs tonight, by far the highest on this slate. While Weaver hasn’t been the gas can we all know and love, allowing no more than four runs in a single start, he has allowed seven home runs already this season. The D-Backs could be the most popular stack on this slate, as they lead all team in the majors with a .353 wOBA against righties with a .460 SLG.

Weather Concerns

No weather concerns for tonight!

Park Factors

Park Factors are ranked on a scale of 1.000. Anything above 1.000 is favorable towards the hitters. Anything below that mark favors pitchers.

  • Chase Field – San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks – Every offensive category was favored here in 2106, especially triples, which had the highest rating of any ballpark.
  • Fenway Park – New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox – Fenway Park is our number two ballpark for the night as the Yankees continue their visit. All offensive categories were favored here last season except for walks.
  • Angels Stadium of Anaheim  – Oakland A’s vs. L.A. Angels – Angel Stadium or the Oakland Coliseum, it doesn’t matter, both of these parks are not favorable for hitters. In 2016, only home runs were favored here.
  • Busch Stadium – Toronto Blue Jays vs. St. Louis Cardinals – Busch Stadium rounds out our ballparks for tonight as the second least favorable for hitters. No offensive categories were favored here last season.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHBOPSAVGBest vs. LHBOPSAVG
Jered Weaver.857.298Chris Sale.585.197
Adam Wainwright.841.306Masahiro Tanaka.655.237
Kendall Graveman.751.272Ricky Nolasco.711.254

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHBOPSAVGBest vs. RHBOPSAVG
Jered Weaver.866.296Masahiro Tanaka.635.235
Taijuan Walker.809.285Chris Sale.663.232
Ricky Nolasco.770.278Kendall Graveman.714.270

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

HitterOpposing SPABFP/AB*
Chase HeadleyChris Sale132.84

*(Fantasy Points Per At Bat)


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Masahiro Tanaka – NYY vs. BOS – $9,400 – Chris Sale is likely going to be the most popular pitcher tonight, so showcasing him wouldn’t do anyone much good.

I’m intrigued on the other side with Tanaka. The Red Sox are NOT hitting well right now, and unless they magically pull out of their funk tonight, Tanaka could be a solid start to your team. Opposing hitters only have a hard hit contact percentage of 24 in his last three starts and he’s induced 23 ground balls in his last two. The Red Sox are currently the toughest team to strike out against right-handed pitchers with a 16.8 K%, which is certainly not a stat we’d want to see when rostering avpitcher, but I’m interested enough with the short slate and the prospect that Tanaka will be left on the board tonight.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Jake Lamb – ARI vs. SD – $4,600 – Speaking of popular tonight, Lamb should be very popular due to his matchup with Weaver. As I mentioned, Weaver has allowed a whopping seven home runs already this season with three of those coming off the bat of a lefty. Weaver is allowing a .357 wOBA with a .523 SLG to lefties in the early going, and I have no doubt he’ll be running into trouble at the hitter-friendly Chase Field tonight.

Save Big by Drafting…

Khris Davis – OAK vs. LAA – $3,700 – Davis feels terribly cheap tonight at $3,700. Sure, he’s in a pitcher-friendly park in L.A. tonight, but does that differ from when he’s in Oakland? If you don’t know already, Davis has hit FIVE of his seven home runs at home this season, so don’t tell me he can’t park one in L.A. Oh, did I mention Ricky Nolasco has also allowed seven home runs this season with five of those to right-handed batters?

Stack Em Up

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Casey Lawrence) – You were totally expecting the D-Backs, weren’t you? Yes, they are my top stack of the night, and I have no doubt they’ll be the top for many others. Again, you have to be a bit different here tonight if you want to take down the big prize on a short slate. The Cardinals will be matching up against Casey Lawrence, who looked lost in his first start of the season, allowing five runs (four earned) on eight hits in 6.1 innings of work against the Angels in L.A.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.