We have another huge slate of baseball tonight, as 14 games will be played. After a successful fun slate last night, let’s keep the ball rolling here today. As always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
CHC (-330) vs. MIL – Jake Arrieta – As -330 favorites, Arrieta comes into this start tonight fresh off his latest no hitter and some absurd numbers in 2016. Owning a 0.87 ERA to go with a 0.68 WHIP and a 7.5 K/9, a matchup against the Brewers should be just another day at the office for Arrieta. With the Brewers averaging 9.3 strikeouts per game, Arrieta should once again be very popular in cash games and tournaments, even with his extremely high $13,800 price tag. The only gripe here is the weather, which I’ll touch upon in just a few.
NYM (-215) vs. CIN – Matt Harvey – I’m a bit surprised with Harvey being as favored as he is, especially with his rocky start to the season. Harvey enters tonight with a 5.24 ERA to go with a 1.57 WHIP and a K/9 of 5.6 Averaging 8.7 FPPG in four starts, Harvey hasn’t really shown much to give me much confidence in him, even more so with his $10,400 price tag. He’s coming off a decent start against the Braves, where he pitched five innings allowing two runs on seven hits with a 5:1 K:BB ratio. Even with that start, I feel like that’s a team he should dominate. Harvey is strictly a GPP play for me.
PIT vs COL – 11 runs – Well, let’s check and see what Coors Field has going on today. Ah yes, another matchup with the Pirates. We finally saw a Coors Field worthy game last night, with both team scoring a combined 13 runs. Tonight they feature Jonathon Niese against Jon Gray. We’ve been talking about Coors Field for over a week now, so I think it’s safe to say that we have the hang of it here on what to do. It’s never a bad idea to have exposure to this game.
NYY vs TEX – 9 runs – This is a game that I was going to target even before I saw the run total this morning, and it confirmed my thought. Checking in at a projected nine runs, CC Sabathia will take the mound for the Yankees, while Martin Perez does the same for the Rangers. The appeal in this one is the extreme splits that both of these pitchers possess. Going back to last season, Sabathia owned a .231 wOBA against lefties, while righties it was a different story with a .370 wOBA. Rangers right-handed batters are a smart target here. With Perez, it’s almost the same. .247 wOBA against lefties, .336 against righties last season. Long story short, right-handed batters are king in this game.
1) MIL vs CHC (Wrigley Field) – A couple of things not to like in this matchup. First, we have a chance of rain the entire night turning steady in the later hours, so a delay wouldn’t necessarily help here. We also have a strong wind blowing in from right field at 18 mph. Check this closer to game time.
2) CLE vs MIN (Target Field) – This game almost mirrors what’s happening over at Wrigley. A chance of rain turning steady as the night progresses with a wind blowing in from left field at 19 mph.
3) PIT vs COL (Coors Field) – We’ve had the wind blowing out the past few nights and now were dealing with the opposite. Coors will see a wind blowing in from right field at 19 mph.
Park Factors are ranked on a scale of 1.000. If an offensive category has a rating of 1.000 or above, it favors the hitters. Anything below 1.000 favors the pitchers.
- Coors Field – PIT vs COL – I’m just excited for when I can put a new team in this section soon. Coors Field is the number one rated ballpark for hitters as it favors them in every offensive category. Does anyone even read this spot about Coors Field anymore?
- Fenway Park – ATL vs BOS – The Braves and Red Sox are in the middle of a home and home and come to Fenway Park tonight. Fenway was the 4th overall ballpark in 2015 for hitters, favoring hitters in runs, singles, doubles, and triples.
- Angels Stadium of Anaheim – KCR vs LAA – Angels Stadium was the second worst ranked park for hitters in 2015. Walks were the only offensive category in favor of the hitters.
- Citi Field – CIN vs NYM – Citi Field was the third worst park for hitters in 2015. With a few offensive categories on the cusp, it did not have a favorable ranking for anything hitter related.
|Targets||Read More||Lineup Stacks|
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters
|Worst vs LHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs LHB||OPS||AVG|
|Bud Norris||0.899||0.295||Josh Tomlin||0.448||0.279|
|Jeremy Hellickson||0.794||0.273||Jake Arrieta||0.449||0.159|
|Jon Niese||0.789||0.305||CC Sabathia||0.516||0.186|
Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters
|Worst vs RHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs RHB||OPS||AVG|
|Jon Gray||0.949||0.341||Chris Young||0.542||0.159|
|Bud Norris||0.892||0.299||Matt Harvey||0.544||0.218|
|Matt Moore||0.866||0.315||Jake Arrieta||0.557||0.207|
Batter vs. Pitcher Splits
|Darin Ruf||Gio Gonzalez||26||3.38|
|Evan Longoria||Chris Tillman||51||2.7|
|Billy Butler||Justin Verlander||87||2.07|
- We start off with Darin Ruf and his 26 match ups with Gonzalez. Ruf is 9-26 with three doubles, three home runs, nine RBIs and eight walks.
- Now we’re getting into some serious numbers. With 51 at-bats, Longoria is 17-51 against Tillman with four doubles, seven home runs, 10 RBIs and five walks.
- Finally, Butler has an insane number of at-bats against Verlander. Butler is 34-84 with five doubles, two home runs, 15 RBIs and nine walks.
Pitcher to Build Around
Gio Gonzalez – WAS vs. PHI– $9,600 – I feel like I may have used up my Gio Gonzalez recommendations for the season, and it’s only April 27th. However, facing the Phillies today who own a .237 wOBA against lefties so far this season, it’s a hard matchup to pass up. Gonzalez owns a solid 1.42 ERA with a 0.90 WHIP in three starts this season. On top of that, his 20:4 K:BB ratio isn’t too shabby either. I worry about the weather with Arrieta, and I can’t trust Harvey until I see more from him. Gonazlez and Sonny Gray are the most viable options after that, with Gonzalez getting the nod with his matchup.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
David Ortiz – BOS vs ATL (Bud Norris) – $4,600 – Ortiz had the past two days with the Sox playing in the National League, so now they come home to face the Braves on their home turf. Ortiz will draw the start against the ticking time bomb that is Bud Norris. Against right-handed pitchers at home this season, Ortiz owns a solid .461 wOBA with a .333 ISO. Norris owns a putrid .483 wOBA against lefties in the early going of 2016.
Save Big by Drafting…
Eduardo Nunez – MIN vs CLE (Josh Tomlin) – $3,200 – Nunez has been one of the lone bright spots for the Twins thus far this season. Batting .404 with eight RBIs and a .942 OPS, and he takes on Josh Tomlin tonight. Tomlin has his struggles against right-handed batters, and Nunez owns a solid .454 wOBA against righties so far this season. He’s not the most attractive hitter on the slate, but at just $3,200, for someone who’s been getting on-base a ton, he’s worth a look.
Stack Em Up
TEX/NYY vs. NYY/TEX (CC Sabathia/Martin Perez) – This game might be a right-handed batter’s dream. As I eluded to earlier in the article, both of these pitchers have their struggles against right-handed batters, and both teams have their fair share of them. I’m expecting this game to showcase quite a few runs, and I think it would actually be wise to try and get exposure to both teams here. I love the mini stacks of two teams and have seen some success in the early going of the season.