CHASE OR FADE: RIGHTY/LEFTY SPLITS WHEN STACKING


Monday brings us a nine-game slate of baseball with some slim pickin’s at pitcher. Nonetheless, we have plenty of information to get into, so let’s jump right in. As always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Top Pitcher

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres – Zack Greinke ($9,400) – This is an interesting spot for Greinke. He faces a Padres team at home tonight, where Greinke has been his best thus far. In two games, Greinke is averaging 18.8 FPPG allowing three runs on nine hits in 11.2 innings with a 10:2 K:BB ratio. This Padres team is not hitting well at all, as its numbers against righties include a .289 wOBA with a .285 OBP and a 23.9 K%. Normally, I’m timid on taking a flier on Greinke at home, as this game is the second-highest run total of the night with San Diego tabbed for 4.1 runs, but I think Greinke is a solid option here.

Highest Totals

UPDATE: Bryce Harper is NOT in the Nationals lineup tonight.

Washington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockies – 11 projected runs – Ah yes, another series at Coors Field for us to divulge into. With 11 projected runs, both teams have a team total of 5.5 tonight. The Nationals had to call upon Jacob Turner to take the spot of Stephen Strasburg. One noteworthy aspect of this game is the price point of Bryce Harper, who sits at $6,100. While that salary feels astronomical, I did some research on FantasyLabs and was able to pull some data on players at Coors Field that had a salary of at least $6K. I discovered since 2014, 40 players were in this price range and averaged 11.8 FPPG.

San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks – 9.5 projected runs – As I mentioned, this game has the second-highest run total of the night, which should come as no surprise taking place at Chase Field. The D-Backs have an implied team total of 5.5, which is the second highest of the night, beating out the Rockies at 5.3. Jhoulys Chacin will be the one taking the mound for the Padres as he comes off his best start of the season against this D-Backs team. Chacin went eight innings allowing no runs on three hits with a 5:1 K:BB ratio. Even in a hitter’s park, Chacin induced a ton of ground balls with 10, which is his second-highest total of the season. Nonetheless, the D-Backs have the second-highest wOBA against righties thus far this season at .348, and I expect them to have a much different outcome this time around.

Weather Concerns

1) Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles (Camden Yards) – No major concerns for this contest, but they will have the threat of rain looming the entire night.

Park Factors

Park Factors are ranked on a scale of 1.000. Anything above 1.000 is favorable towards the hitters. Anything below that mark favors pitchers.

  • Coors Field – Washington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockies – I mean, you need to expect Coors Field to be here every time it’s in play. Every offensive category is favored here and will always be that way.
  • Chase Field – San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks – Chase Field was the number two ballpark for hitters last season and is the same on our list. Last season, every offensive category was favored here, and they also had the number one rank for triples.
  • L.A. Angels of Anaheim Stadium – Toronto Blue Jays vs. L.A. Angels – Angel Stadium is our worst park for opposing hitters tonight, which makes Liriano an intriguing option for GPPs. Home runs were the only category favored here.
  • Guaranteed Rate Field – Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox – With the worst park name in baseball, Guaranteed Rate Field is our second worst ballpark for hitters. Home runs and triples were the only favored categories here last season.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHBOPSAVGBest vs. LHBOPSAVG
Phil Hughes.956.385Martin Perez.537.175
Matt Cain.901.322Tyler Anderson.670.205
Ubaldo Jimenez.885.294Miguel Gonzalez.675.237

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHBOPSAVGBest vs. RHBOPSAVG
Tyler Anderson.930.311Chad Kuhl.676.240
Matt Cain.836.281Ubaldo Jimenez.690.240
Phil Hughes.797.279Miguel Gonzalez.697272

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

HitterOpposing SPABFP/AB
Chris DavisChris Archer223.22
Chase UtleyMatt Cain292.86
Joey VottoMatt Garza342.11

*(Fantasy Points Per At Bat)


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Francisco Liriano – Toronto Blue Jays vs. L.A. Angels – $9,700 – Full disclosure, I don’t love this play by any means. However, I don’t think we have much to love with tonight’s pitching as a whole. Liriano checks off a couple boxes to intrigue me: pitchers’ park and strikeout potential. In three starts this season, Liriano owns a 12.4 K/9, but also has a 5.1 BB/9. Trust me, he’s hard to trust on a normal basis, but the options are paper thin tonight.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Joey Votto – Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers – $5,100 – With so many shaky pitching options tonight, it does bring us plenty of opportunities for our hitters. I really like this spot for Votto against Matt Garza. Garza isn’t exactly the poster child for getting left-handed batters out. Last season, Garza owned a .354 wOBA against them with a .462 SLG and a .364 OBP. Votto owned a .438 wOBA against righties on the road last season.

Save Big by Drafting…

Justin Turner – L.A. Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants – $3,400 – Turner has put up fantasy points in nine straight games, averaging eight FPPG in that stretch. Tonight he’ll face off against Matt Cain, who allowed a .368 wOBA at AT&T Stadium with a .502 SLG in 2016. Turner has a .414 wOBA against righties in the early going of 2017 with a .514 SLG.

Stack Em Up

Texas Rangers vs. Minnesota Twins (Phil Hughes) – Hughes has been getting hit hard already this season, allowing nine runs on 18 hits in 15.1 innings with three home runs. He’ll be in the Texas heat tonight against a Rangers team that has plenty of power potential as they own a .193 team ISO against righties, which ranks fourth in the league. This stack is a bit on the cheap side, as the majority of the starting nine hangs in the low $4K for salary.

 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.