With an 11 game slate on tap tonight, I have plenty of information to give you to help you be successful. Let’s jump right into it, and, as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
LAD (-160) vs. ATL – Ross Stripling – Stripling gets the nod tonight against a team that put up eight runs against the Dodgers last night. Alex Wood struggled from the start, and the Braves were able to seize the opportunity. Stripling has made two starts this season against some tough teams, being the Giants and the Diamondbacks, and has come out with a 2.03 ERA and a 9:5 K:BB ratio. This should be a much easier contest for him against a Braves team that owns a .306 OBP, ranked 22nd overall, and a .283 SLG, ranked dead last in 30th. Even better for Stripling, his $6,400 is one of the cheapest on the night.
NYY (-160) vs. OAK – Nathan Eovaldi – This is the night of the cheap starting pitchers. Eovaldi gets the nod as the second favorite of the night, facing an Oakland A’s team that owns a .342 SLG, which is ranked 27th, in the early going of 2016. Like Stripling, Eovaldi faced two tough teams to start the season, except he hasn’t performed, as well. Against the Blue Jays and Astros, Eovaldi owns a 6.94 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP. His K:BB ratio is solid out of the gate, checking in at 15:2. Historically, Eovaldi struggles against left handed bats, owning a .341 career wOBA against them. The A’s do have a lot of left handed bats, so this could end up being another struggle for Eovaldi. Even with their poor start offensively, the A’s could be a sneaky stack on the night.
TOR vs BAL – 9 runs – Checking in at nine runs tonight, R.A. Dickey takes the hill for the Blue Jays, while Ubaldo Jimenez does likewise for the Orioles. This game is the only one on the entire day with a combined score of nine, so this should feature some fireworks. The Orioles have been an offensive force in the early going of the season, ranking first in team SLG at .531 and ranked second in home runs with 25. Going against R.A. Dickey, who owns a 1.91 WHIP in three starts this season, the Orioles should be able to tee off in the hitter friendly confines of Camden Yards. The Blue Jays, for as good as they are on paper, are still struggling offensively, with a team SLG of .373, which is ranked 22nd. Jimenez was solid at home last season, only allowing six home runs and a wOBA of .290.
No weather issues AGAIN tonight. This streak should never end.
Park Factors are ranked on a scale of 1.000. If an offensive category has a rating of 1.000 or above, it favors the hitters. Anything below 1.000 favors the pitchers.
- Camden Yards – TOR vs BAL – Camden Yards ranked as the number three overall ballpark for hitters in 2015. It featured favorable rankings in runs, home runs and hits.
- Fenway Park – TB vs BOS – Checking in ranked fourth last season, Fenway Park is favorable for hitters in numerous offensive categories. It had a 1.000+ ranking in runs, hits, double and triples.
- AT&T Park- ARZ vs. SF – Ranked as the worst ballpark for hitters in 2015, AT&T Park only favored hitters in triples.
- Petco Park – PIT vs. SD – Petco Park was ranked 20th overall in favor of hitters in 2015. With only home runs given the positive rating to hitters last season, Petco lived up to the hype of being a pitchers park.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters
|Worst vs LHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs LHB||OPS||AVG|
|Julio Teheran||0.893||0.317||Madison Bumgarner||0.539||0.206|
|Jimmy Nelson||0.876||0.302||Zack Greinke||0.535||0.194|
|Ian Kennedy||0.844||0.256||Tommy Milone||0.603||0.218|
Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters
|Worst vs RHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs RHB||OPS||AVG|
|Doug Fister||0.868||0.327||Joe Ross||0.461||0.172|
|Wei-Yin Chen||0.815||0.274||Zack Greinke||0.482||0.182|
|Kendall Graveman||0.794||0.278||Jimmy Nelson||0.568||0.202|
Batter vs. Pitcher Splits
|David Ortiz||Chris Archer||26||2.73|
|Paul Goldschmidt||Madison Bumgarner||38||2.26|
- Ortiz has really hit Chris Archer well in his career. With the way Archer has been pitching lately, he might have a shot to pad these stats. Ortiz is 9-26 with a double, two home runs, 11 RBIs and three walks.
- We didn’t have a lot of good BvP stats on this slate, but this one surprised me. Paul Goldschmidt has some really good numbers against Bumgarner. He’s 12-38 with four doubles, two home runs, six RBIs and eight walks.
Pitcher to Build Around
Cole Hamels – TEX vs HOU $9,900 – The Astros are creeping back up in the strikeout ranks this season. For a while, they were doing well at staying out of the top 10 in strikeouts, but they’ve shot up the ranks and now are second overall in the league with 138. I like this spot for Hamels tonight, as the Astros struck out a ton against left handed pitchers last season. They ranked second in strikeouts against lefties in 2015 compared to 10th against righties. Overall, Houston is an extremely boom or bust team. I think Hamels is in a good spot to produce plenty of K’s/fantasy points tonight. In three starts this season, Hamels owns a 16:8 K:BB ratio.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Matt Kemp – SD vs. PIT (Jeff Locke) – $4,600 – Kemp goes against left-handed pitcher Jeff Locke today, who struggles against right-handed bats. In his career, Locke has allowed 52 home runs with 42 of them coming off a right-handed bat. Kemp hit lefties really well last season, owning a .354 wOBA with an ISO of .208. In a forgotten offense like the Padres, Kemp should go relatively under owned tonight and should be in a good spot here. Loading up on some of the right-handed batters of the Padres certainly won’t break the bank either.
Save Big by Drafting…
Stephen Vogt– OAK vs NYY (Nathan Eovaldi) – $3,300 – Vogt is a fine play tonight against Eovaldi, who I reminded you earlier struggles against left-handed batters. Vogt is someone who has some power, with 30 of his career 33 home runs coming off a right-handed pitcher. Vogt owned a .353 wOBA against right handed pitchers last season with an ISO of .211. At just $3,300 and a less than stellar overall offense, I think Vogt would be a great play in both cash games and GPPs tonight.
Stack Em Up
OAK vs. NYY (Nathan Eovaldi) – I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again, I think this is the sneaky stack of the night. Oakland will throw a bunch of lefties at Eovaldi tonight, and I think it will be overlooked. I don’t expect the A’s to throw up double digit runs or anything like that, but it’s going to be on the cheap to stack this Oakland team. Don’t discount the amount of switch hitters the A’s have on their roster either, with Billy Burns, Coco Crisp and Jed Lowrie.
If you’re not a fan of the Oakland stack, I think the right-handed bats on San Diego are a fine choice as well.