After a very underwhelming slate for pitching last night, we start to get back to some sort of normalcy in this night slate. I’ll do my best to get you ready with all the ins and out. As always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Editor’s Note: Julio Teheran has been scratched from his start tonight. Either Matt Wisler or Williams Perez will toe the rubber for the Braves.
NYY (-160) vs. OAK – Michael Pineda – Pineda gets the nod as the heaviest favorite of the night against a very weak Oakland offense. Pineda hasn’t exactly set the baseball world on fire in 2016, with his 6.55 ERA in two starts, owning a 11:3 K:BB ratio. Granted, these starts came against tough teams in Houston and Toronto, so a start against Oakland is a welcoming sight. Oakland is having their issues at the plate, ranked 26th in batting average, 25th in runs scored, and 27th in team OPS. They’ve hit a decent amount of home runs with 14, and they’re a tough team to strikeout, ranked 20th in the early going. At $8,600, this is a perfect game for Pineda to right the ship, and he can do it on a relatively cheap salary.
KCR (-158) vs. DET – Yordano Ventura – Another surprising name as a favorite on the night, especially when we see names like Stephen Strasburg, Francisco Liriano, and Vince Velasquez on this slate. Ventura faces a Detroit team that has been crushing the ball in the early going. They’re striking out at a decent clip, ranked right in the middle of the league. I don’t know if I’ve officially bought in on the notion that Ventura is back to his 2014 form. Last season certainly saw its ups and downs, but it was encouraging to see his K’s go up and his BB go down. This is a GPP only play for me.
HOU vs TEX – 9.5 runs – This is the highest total of the night, as it is the only game on this slate that is projected to have nine or more runs, and rightfully so. Scott Feldman takes on Derek Holland in this one in the battle of who gets pulled first. Both of these teams are in the top ten for at least one offensive category. The Astros are in for home runs (5th) while the Rangers are in for runs (6th.) If you’re targeting this game, it would be wise to seek out the RHB, as Feldman owned a .354 wOBA against them and Holland a .360 wOBA.
LAA vs. CHW – 8.5 runs – We have numerous games with 8.5 projected runs, so I went with LAA and CHW because of the pitching matchup. The Angels are running out Matt Shoemaker and the White Sox Mat Latos. Both of these pitchers have pitched well in at least one of their starts this season; however, I feel they’ve both overachieved at this point. Shoemaker has issues with the HR ball, but he does face a team that’s only hit nine thus far. Latos has really struggled the past two seasons, but has looked great out of the gate. This is one of those sneaky games that COULD see some runs but is hard to pinpoint. Personally, I might look elsewhere.
1) LAA vs. CHW (U.S. Cellular Field) – This contest features a chance of rain throughout the entire game. It also has some strong winds blowing in from left field at 11 mph. Check this one out closer to game time if you’re thinking of taking anyone.
Park Factors are ranked on a scale of 1.000. If an offensive category has a rating of 1.000 or above, it favors the hitters. Anything below 1.000 favors the pitchers.
- Camden Yards – TOR vs BAL – Camden Yards ranked as the number three overall ballpark for hitters in 2015. It featured favorable rankings in runs, home runs and hits.
- Fenway Park – TB vs BOS – Checking in at fourth last season, Fenway Park is favorable for hitters in numerous offensive categories. It had a 1.000+ ranking in runs, hits, double and triples.
- AT&T Park- ARZ vs. SF – Ranked as the worst ballpark for hitters in 2015, AT&T Park only favored hitters in triples, and we know how often those happen.
- U.S. Cellular Field – LAA vs. CHW – Not much changes for either as these teams, as both of their parks ranked in the bottom 10 for hitters in 2015. U.S. Cellular Field only favored hitters in home runs and walks.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters
|Worst vs LHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs LHB||OPS||AVG|
|Shane Greene||1.017||0.363||Drew Smyly||0.507||0.232|
|Matt Cain||0.964||0.313||Alex Wood||0.517||0.223|
|Jorge De La Rosa||0.949||0.315||Stephen Strasburg||0.572||0.202|
Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters
|Worst vs RHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs RHB||OPS||AVG|
|Mike Wright||0.855||0.258||Jaime Garcia||0.557||0.218|
|Derek Holland||0.848||0.264||Logan Verrett||0.557||0.205|
|Matt Cain||0.842||0.276||Jorge De La Rosa||0.611||0.214|
Batter vs. Pitcher Splits
|Giancarlo Stanton||Stephen Strasburg||32||3.1|
|Victor Martinez||Yordano Ventrua||13||3.07|
|David Ortiz||Drew Smyly||11||2.9|
- Even if you’re not a fan of BvP, Stanton has CRUSHED Strasburg in their 32 match ups. Stanton is 13-32 with six doubles, three home runs, 10 RBIs, and five walks. Damnit Stanton, Strasburg has a family!
- Martinez also has some decent numbers in his short stint against Ventura. Martinez is 4-13 with two home runs, five RBIs, and two walks.
Pitcher to Build Around
Francisco Liriano – PIT vs. SDP – $9,800 – The Padres are making it too easy. They’re such an easy team to target against, especially with a pitcher like Liriano taking the mound. The Padres currently rank third in strikeouts and had one of the lowest wOBAs against left-handed pitchers in 2015. Then we have Liriano with his 10.6 K/9 this season in two starts, building off his 9.8 K/9 in 2015. It’s just the perfect matchup. One concern with Liriano is his walks. He’s allowed a whopping nine in just 11 innings so far. The Padres are once again ranked really low in that category, 20th overall, but it is still a bit concerning. Is it enough to keep him out of my lineups tonight? Ha. No.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Giancarlo Stanton – MIA vs. WAS (Stephen Strasburg) – $4,200 – If you haven’t picked up on the hints yet, I love BvP. I don’t use it as my primary reason to pick players, but it certainly can be a factor. With how well Stanton has hit Strasburg, it seems a bit crazy to leave him on the board tonight, especially with how cheap you can get him. Stanton at $4,200 is as cheap as it will get, and you’re nabbing someone who has 13 hits off an elite pitcher with nine of them going for extra bases. Stanton at $4,200 is begging for you to roster him.
Save Big by Drafting…
Joc Pederson – LAD vs ATL (Julio Teheran) – $3,200 – Be sure to check if he is starting tonight. Pederson is kind of like Chris Carter and Mark Reynolds. You roster him for home runs and that’s about it. What’s good about tonight is he takes on Julio Teheran, who’s picking up where he left off last season by allowing four home runs on this young season. Of those four home runs, three have come off the bat of a LHB, and Pederson is just that. In 2015, the 23 year old owned a .345 wOBA with an ISO of .214. A great matchup for short money tonight.
Stack Em Up
LAD vs. ATL (Julio Teheran) – Oh, while you’re at it, why don’t you just stack the Dodgers? Teheran is still priced high at $8,300 even though he’s performed poorly in three starts this season. Teheran owns a 1.47 WHIP thus far with a 14:8 K:BB ratio. The Dodgers are hitting well in the early going and have quite a few left-handed batters to give him trouble. Chase Utley, Corey Seager, Adrian Gonzalez and Pederson all bat from the left side. Have fun Teheran!