CIN (-152) vs. COL – Dan Straily – Even with the short slate tonight, I was surprised with CIN being the favorite on the night with pitcher Dan Straily. We have not really seen Straily pitch much at the major league level, but last season in Triple-A, Straily started 22 games for the Astros organization owning a 4.77 ERA with a 9.1 K/9 and 13 home runs allowed. He takes on a beat up Rockies lineup that is without Charlie Blackmon. The enticing part with Straily is that he costs the stone minimum for a pitcher tonight at $4,000. He certainly has strikeout potential, so he could be a GPP target tonight.
NYM (-150) vs. PHI – Noah Syndergaard – Syndergaard checks in tonight as the most expensive pitcher on the slate, and I anticipate he will be the most popular. Even at $12,100, you should have no problem fitting him into your lineup. Syndergaard takes on the Phillies, a team he faced twice last season, throwing 10.2 IP allowing two runs on 10 hits with a K/9 of 10.9. The Phillies are currently tied with two other teams for sixth in strikeouts this season with 111. Syndergaard will be the chalk tonight, so be prepared if you’re taking him.
MIL vs. MIN – 8 runs – The highest run total on this small slate belongs to the Brewers and the Twins opening up a four game series in Minnesota. Chase Anderson takes the mound for the Brewers with Phil Hughes going for the Twins. Both of these pitchers bring limited upside, as they both owned a K/9 in the mid six range in 2015. Anderson also had his wOBA splits dead even last year at .325. I’ll be honest, this game doesn’t exactly excite me when it comes to a high scoring affair, but overall, this game has two relatively weak pitchers going against each other against two teams that are underperforming at this point. Something has got to give. Hughes is also extremely vulnerable to the home run ball, allowing 29 last season.
We’ve been fortunate lately with no real weather concerns as of late. The trend continues today so enjoy it while you can.
Park Factors are ranked on a scale of 1.000. If an offensive category has a rating of 1.000 or above, it favors the hitters. Anything below 1.000 favors the pitchers.
- Great American Ballpark – COL vs CIN – It may not be Coors Field, but the Great American Ballpark checks in as the most favorable for hitters tonight. It had favorable ratings in every offensive category except triples last season.
- Citizen Bank Park – NYM vs. PHI – Citizen Bank Park ranks as the second best hitters ballpark on this slate. In 2015, it had favorable rankings in runs, home runs, and walks.
- AT&T Stadium – ARZ vs. SFG – Ranked as the worst overall park for offense in 2015, AT&T Park only had a favorable rating in triples in 2015.
- U.S. Cellular Field – LAA vs. CHW – U.S. Cellular Field isn’t exactly a hitters park, but neither is LAA Stadium. In 2015, the only categories this field favored were home runs and walks.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters
|Worst vs LHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs LHB||OPS||AVG|
|Tanner Roark||0.866||0.299||Carlos Rodon||0.524||0.194|
|Jose Fernandez||0.86||0.333||Hector Santiago||0.633||0.22|
|Jerad Eickhoff||0.83||0.268||Jake Peavy||0.65||0.207|
Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters
|Worst vs RHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs RHB||OPS||AVG|
|Carlos Rodon||0.799||0.272||Jose Fernandez||0.446||0.176|
|Chase Anderson||0.761||0.28||Jared Eickhoff||0.458||0.168|
|Hector Santiago||0.752||0.229||Noah Syndergaard||0.601||0.212|
Batter vs. Pitcher Splits
|Joey Votto||Jordan Lyles||11||4.81|
|Anthony Rizzo||Mike Leake||30||2.1|
- Votto has made almost every hit against Jordan Lyles count. In his career, he’s 7-11 against Lyles with two doubles, two home runs, three RBIs, and four walks.
- Rizzo and Leake have met up the most times out of anyone with some good BvP tonight. Rizzo is 10-30 with two doubles, two home runs, five RBIs and three walks.
Pitcher to Build Around
Jerad Eickhoff – PHI vs. NYM – $8,000 – I personally love Eickhoff. The kid possess a nasty slider and has a good matchup tonight. He doesn’t have the Fernandez or Syndergaard notoriety, so I have no clue where he will rank in terms of being owned tonight. I expect it to be high because of the short slate, but I think his matchup may be better than you think. The Mets are really struggling offensively so far, hitting .220 as a team (ranked 25th) with a .300 OBP (20th) with nine total home runs (T-21st.) Those are not the numbers of a team that is going to scare you. With some great strikeout potential with Eickhoff, I think he’s in a great spot to do some work tonight.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Joey Votto – CIN vs COL – $4,600 – This is a great matchup tonight and one that I will look to expose. Votto faces off against RHP Jordan Lyles tonight where the two will showcase each others strength and weakness. Lyles against lefties lifetime owns a .357 wOBA, while Votto against righties owns a .416 wOBA. Playing in CIN, which is also the most favorable hitters ballpark on the night, you have to love this spot for Votto. With the short slate, you should have no issue getting him in your lineup.
Save Big by Drafting…
Jonathan Lucroy – MIL vs MIN – $3,600 – The options are limited tonight, but I do like Lucroy in this spot. He isn’t the power guy he once was, but Phil Hughes can make anyone look like one. With 29 home runs given up last season by Hughes, Lucroy comes into this matchup owning a .325 wOBA against righties last season. Lucroy has also been spending some time in the clean up spot this season, which I love for his value. If Hughes comes out of the gate having issues, Lucroy could be in a nice position here.
Stack Em Up
SFG vs. ARZ (Archie Bradley) – Bradley is getting his first start for the Diamondbacks as he got the call from Triple-A. It isn’t his first go around in the majors, but it’s pretty close. Bradley pitched in only 35 innings last season and was crushed by right-handed bats, owning a .420 wOBA against them. Granted, the Giants have more left-handed bats than they do right, but with Buster Posey and Hunter Pence at the heart of the order batting right, things could get interesting quick.