WATCH: FRANCISCO LINDOR’S UPSIDE VS THE TWINS
Monday brings us a nine-game slate with plenty of mid-priced pitchers to choose from. Let’s jump right into it and as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers – John Lackey ($10,200) – Lackey and the Cubs are a heavy favorite tonight, as they take on the Brewers. Lackey has pitched extremely well in his first two starts, averaging 24 FPPG, pitching 12 innings allowing four runs on 10 hits with a 17:5 K: BB ratio. The Brewers are tagged with the lowest team total of the night at 3.1 runs, further solidifying Lackey as one of the top options for the night. Last season at Wrigley, Lackey owned a .265 wOBA with a .341 SLG and a .268 OBP.
L.A. Angels vs. Houston Astros – 9 runs – The Astros have the highest projected run total of the night at five total runs. They’ll face Jesse Chavez, who is averaging only 9.5 FPPG in three starts thus far. Chavez was a reliever in 2016, but in 2015, he started 26 games and was smoked by lefties. During that season, Chavez owned a .354 wOBA with a .338 OBP and a .487 SLG. The Astros aren’t exactly stocked with left-handed bats, but a couple of value plays certainly come into mind with the like of Brian McCann and Josh Reddick on the team.
Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees– 9 runs – The Yankees are another team with a high implied run total, sitting at 4.7 as we head into tonight. They’ll face off against Derek Holland at home. He’s coming off two decent starts against the Twins and Indians, averaging 19.2 FPPG allowing only two runs in 12 innings with a 9:5 K: BB ratio. The Yankees don’t exactly have anyone that mashes lefties, but Chris Carter and Matt Holliday both had ISOs of .313 and .267 respectively in 2016.
San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves (SunTrust Park) – This game will feature a chance of thunderstorms early in the game that should clear out near the late innings. I don’t think we need to worry too much about this game, but as always, take a peak before first pitch.
Park Factors are ranked on a scale of 1.000. Anything above 1.000 is favorable towards the hitters. Anything below that mark favors pitchers.
- SunTrust Park – San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves – Turner Field only favored runs, singles, and walks in 2016.
- Target Field – Cleveland Indians vs. Minnesota Twins – Target Field is our number two ballpark for hitters tonight as the Indians come to town. Target Field favored all offensive categories except walks last season.
- Minute Maid Park – L.A. Angels vs. Houston Astros -Minute Maid Park was one of the worst ballparks for hitters last season. Triples were the only category that got the nod in 2016.
- Dodger Stadium – Arizona Diamondbacks vs. L.A. Dodgers – Dodger Stadium has always been cruel to hitters and last year was no different. No offensive categories get the nod at this ballpark.
Pitcher to Build Around
Brandon McCarthy -L.A. Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks – $7,900 – McCarthy is awfully cheap tonight, as he’s been all season. Granted, he’s averaging 15.2 FPPG, so you can’t expect him to be higher than he is, but I still love this price. He’ll face the D-Backs in the cozy confines of Dodger Stadium, the spot that McCarthy held opposing hitters to a .300 wOBA with a .329 SLG and a .340 OBP in his short 2016 season. Even though it’s early, the D-Backs currently own one of the highest K% against righties this season with a 24.6 K%. McCarthy has shown flashes of a high K/9, but injuries have typically derailed him. At $7,900, he’s a worthy pick tonight.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Freddie Freeman – Atlanta Braves vs. Jered Weaver – $4,600 – Jered Weaver may have won me some money in his last start in Colorado, but this is daily fantasy where the mentality is “love ‘em and leave ‘em.” Weaver posted a .365 wOBA against lefties last season with a .502 SLG and 15 of his 37 home runs allowed. Freeman, batting third for the Braves, hit 15 of his of his 34 home runs against righties at home while posting a .361 wOBA with a .532 SLG.
Save Big by Drafting…
Lonnie Chisenhall – Cleveland Indians vs. Minnesota Twins – $3,300 – Chisenhall has only been drawing starts against right-handed pitching and tonight should be a great spot for him. Kyle Gibson had a boatload of issues with lefties last season, owning a .380 wOBA with a .495 SLG and a .392 OBP. While Gibson didn’t allow a ton of home runs, nine of his 20 did come off the bat of a lefty.
Stack Em Up
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres (Jered Weaver) – I think the Braves stack is the way to go tonight. I know it doesn’t sound like the most enticing stack, but this team certainly has some players that can hit righties. With Freddie Freeman leading the way, I truly believe you can still get the Braves at a low ownership, even with their matchup against Weaver. With 37 home runs and a .365 wOBA to opposing hitters last season, Weaver can’t keep up the magic that he brought to Colorado in his last start.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.