The games are split almost evenly here during the day and night. We have a nice slate of games going here in the night slate with some much better hitting match ups than we do pitching. Let’s get you ready and as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
WAS (-180) vs. PHI – Max Scherzer – Scherzer gets a nice matchup against the Phillies tonight, but his price tag is going to be a tough one to swallow. At $13,100, Scherzer bring his fantastic 2015 success against them. Facing them four times last season, Scherzer pitched 30 innings allowing five runs on 19 hits with a fantastic 30:3 K:BB ratio. If you can afford him, he certainly should bring the points. I anticipate he’ll be highly owned on this slate, even with the high price tag.
MIA (-171) vs. ATL – Tom Koehler – From a baseball perspective, can you really find a worse series than the Marlins and Braves? Yikes, this one could be a snooze fest. Nonetheless, Vegas loves Koehler tonight, who pitched well against the Braves last season. In four starts, Koehler pitched 27 innings allowing 11 runs on 29 hits with a pretty ugly 16:13 K:BB ratio. Overall, it’s a pretty unimpressive slate for pitching, so this might not be a bad play, I’m just not getting overly excited here. With the Braves being a tough team to strike out, Koehler has a very limited ceiling here.
BAL vs. TEX – 9 runs – This game checks in with the highest over/under of the entire day. With two extremely unimpressive pitchers taking the mound, it’s easy to see why. Yovani Gallardo and Colby Lewis will take the hill for Baltimore and Texas. Both of these teams feature some great hitting, as Texas and Baltimore rank in the top 10 for hits and doubles in the early going of the 2016 sesaon. Baltimore of course ranks first overall in home runs with 20. This would be a great game to target on the night.
1) BAL vs. TEX (Globe Life Park) – This game could end up seeing some thunderstorms near the end of the game. It shouldn’t really effect any of the starting pitchers, unless someone is throwing a gem (lol.) I would certainly take a look closer to game time to make sure the timeline of these storms doesn’t change to the earlier part of this contest.
Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. If an offensive category has a rating of 1.000 or higher it favors the hitters. Anything lower than 1.000 favors pitchers.
- Globe Life Park – BAL vs TEX – I truly think the Orioles have had a favorable hitters park in every series they’ve played in thus far. Globe Life Park is no different, as it ended 2015 with a favorable rating in every offensive category except triples. So I hope you weren’t banking on any of those today.
- Citizens Bank Park – WAS vs. PHI – The Phillies don’t have a very good matchup ahead of them, but at least their park is great for hitters! In 2015, Citizens Bank Park had a favorable hitters ranking for runs, singles, and walks last season.
- Dodger Stadium – SFG vs. LAD – Dodger Stadium was one of the worst in 2015 for hitters. The only categories that favored hitters were home runs (and that was just barely, with a rating of 1.000) and doubles.
- Petco Park – ARZ vs. SD – Petco Park is notorious for being a pitchers park, and the ratings in 2015 didn’t disagree. Home runs were the only factor that favored hitters in 2015, with everything else going toward pitchers.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters
|Worst vs LHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs LHB||OPS||AVG|
|Bud Norris||0.899||0.295||Johnny Cueto||0.598||0 .215|
|Andrew Cashner||0.896||0.293||Justin Verlander||0.620||0.216|
|Aaron Nola||0.834||0.310||Colin McHugh||0.648||0.235|
Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters
|Worst vs RHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs RHB||OPS||AVG|
|Bud Norris||0.890||0.299||Max Scherzer||0.538||0.184|
|Jonathan Niese||0.757||0.273||Shelby Miller||0.594||0.214|
|Colin McHugh||0.755||0.288||Andrew Nola||0.618||0.212|
Batter vs. Pitcher Splits
|AJ Pierzynski||Thomas Koehler||15||3.2|
|JJ Hardy||Colby Lewis||18||2.6|
|David Peralta||Andrew Cashner||21||1.8|
- Pierzynski leads the way in BvP for today against Koehler. During their match ups, Pierzynski is 7-15 with one double, two home runs and five RBIs.
- JJ Hardy checks in with the two spot for BvP with his number against Colby Lewis. Hardy is 6-18 with two doubles, two home runs and four RBIs.
Pitcher to Build Around
Shelby Miller – ARZ vs. SDP – $8,100 – I think it’s pretty obvious that Max Scherzer is going to be the most popular pitcher on the slate and rightfully so. My second option is Miller, even after his rough start to the season. He pitches on the road in San Diego against Andrew Cashner and the Padres. The Padres are striking out a ton in the early going here, ranked fourth overall in the league. It was encouraging to see Miller rack up six strike outs against a tough Cubs offense, which gives me up for his start today. At $8,100, I like my chances with Miller here in a pitchers ball park.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Chris Davis- (Colby Lewis) – $4,900 – In a game with the highest over/under on the entire slate, it only makes sense to grab one of the heavy hitters here. Chris Davis hit right handed pitching extremely well last season, owning a .410 wOBA with a whopping 37 of his 47 home runs coming against them last season. Colby Lewis isn’t exactly someone you throw on the mound to stop left handed batters, as his .324 wOBA against them last year is a good indication. Davis is in a lineup that is so dangerous that they can and have, gone off early this season. Tonight should be more of the same here.
Save Big by Drafting…
Justin Bour – MIA vs ATL (Bud Norris) – $3,300 – Bour is someone who has tremendous power and consistently gets overlooked. Sure, he hasn’t done anything overly impressive thus far, hitting .292 with no home runs and two RBIs. But I love his matchup against Norris with such a cheap price tag. Bour hit all 23 of his home runs against righties last season and overall owned a .359 wOBA against them. If you’re looking to fit Scherzer in your lineup, Bour could be a great high ceiling player on the cheap tonight.
Stack Em Up
MIA vs ATL (Bud Norris) – I’ll catch some flack for this I’m sure. The obvious choices to stack here is BAL or TEX, with it being such a high run total game. But I think the Marlins can get something done here with Bud Norris on the mound. Believe it or not, Miami is actually third in the league in batting average right now at .289 and fifth in OBP with .355. They certainly aren’t the flashiest team in the league, but I think they can make something happen here. Norris owned a .385 wOBA against lefties and .379 wOBA against righties in 2015.