With 12 games going tonight, we have plenty of information to divulge into on this Wednesday. Let’s not waste any time and get you ready for this night slate of games. As always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
WAS (-250) vs. ATL – Stephen Strasburg – This is starting to get to be a “same story, different day” situation. Yet another team is the big favorite on the night going up against the Atlanta Braves. Stephen Strasburg is that guy, along with his $11,300 salary. This will be the second start of the season for Strasburg with his first coming against the Braves. Oh in that start, Strasburg pitched six innings, allowing one run on six hits while owning a 4:3 K:BB ratio. The Braves are not a good team, and I expect a much better outing this time around. Last season, Strasburg owned a K/9 of 11 to go with a K/9 of 10.6 in two starts against the Braves.
CHC (-220) vs. CIN – John Lackey – Lackey did not have a good start to the 2016 season. Against the Diamondbacks, Lackey threw six innings allowing six runs on eight hits with a 4:1 K:BB ratio. Tonight he gets the Reds, who are basically in the middle-of-the-pack in baseball in terms of offensive categories. If you take a look at how they’re doing in 2016 offensively, they land consistently in the 12-15th range. Lackey may have pitched a bit over his head last season with his 2.77 ERA, so it’s not a surprise to see some regression in 2016. Even still, at $8,300, Lackey brings some good value to the board tonight with his 7.2 K/9 and a powerful offense to back him up. Lackey pitched against the Reds five times last season going 34 innings allowing 11 runs on 27 hits with a 31:8 K:BB ratio.
SFG vs. COL – 11 runs – If my memory is correct, this may be the highest run total at Coors Field this season. Jake Peavy and Jordan Lyles will take the hill for their respective teams tonight. As always, Coors Field was ranked the number one park for hitters last season and will continue to be number one until the end of time. The Giants have been an offensive force thus far in 2016, as they currently lead all MLB teams in runs scored, home runs, total bases and RBIs. Lyles got off to a rough start this season, going only three innings against the San Diego Padres allowing five runs on seven hits with a 4:3 K:BB ratio. As usual, it would be wise to have at least a little exposure to this game.
BAL vs. BOS – 9 runs- The offense between these two hasn’t disappointed in two games so far. 30 runs have been scored with another anticipated high scoring night coming this evening. The Orioles are as dangerous as it comes and have been feasting on the Red Sox pitching staff. With Joe Kelly on the hill tonight, the Orioles get a pitcher they crushed in 2015. Against Kelly, they scored 10 runs in just 11.1 IP on 17 hits with three home runs. Kelly didn’t exactly help himself with a 9:5 K:BB ratio either. Jimenez wasn’t exactly a Red Sox slayer either, pitching 20.2 innings against the Sox last season, allowing nine runs on 19 hits with a 20:10 K:BB ratio. Make sure to take a look at this matchup.
|Pitchers||Read More||Cheat Sheet|
Another nice night of baseball ahead! No wind, no rain!
Park factors are rated on a scale of 1.000 or less. If an offensive category scored a rating of 1.000 or above, it favors hitters. Anything below 1.000 is scored in favor of the pitcher.
- Coors Field – SFG vs. COL – I think we’ve all heard the narrative here. Coors Field is the best hitters park in the league. It scored over 1.000 in every single offensive category. A pitchers nightmare (and pitchers willingly sign here!)
- Fenway Park – BAL vs BOS – Truly, with the visiting Orioles, this may as well be Camden Yards North. The conditions are quite similar, as Fenway checked in ranked fourth overall for hitters in 2015. Fenway ranked in favor of hitters in runs, singles, doubles and triples.
- Rogers Centre – NYY vs. TOR – Toronto gets the honors of having the worst ball park for hitters on the slate. In 2015, the Rogers Centre was in favor of pitchers in every offensive category with the exception of home runs and doubles.
- Dodger Stadium – ARZ vs. LAD – Dodger Stadium checks in as the second worst ballpark for hitters. In 2015, Dodger stadium favored pitchers with the exception of home runs (which just made the bare minimum with a score of 1.000) and doubles.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters
|Best vs. LHB||AVG||OPS||Worst vs. LHB||AVG||OPS|
|Drew Smyly||0.157||0.507||Shane Greene||0.363||1.017|
|Alex Wood||0.223||0.517||Matt Wisler||0.327||0.986|
|Carlos Rodon||0.194||0.524||Rubby De La Rosa||0.315||0.949|
- I wish I could say that Shane Greene has those numbers because he only pitched in three game last season; however, I can’t say that. This was over a span of 18 games with 16 starts! Greene held a .425 wOBA against lefties with a 23:15 K:BB ratio.
- We have a solid group of pitchers in the best against lefties group. Rodon is especially nasty against lefties, as he had a K/9 of 9 against them last season while keeping the ball in the park. Rodon didn’t let up a home run to lefties last season, compared to the 11 he did against righties.
Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters
|Worst vs. RHB||AVG||OPS||Best vs. RHB||AVG||OPS|
|Phil Hughes||0.304||0.869||Jerd Eickhoff||0.168||0.458|
|Joe Kelly||0.299||0.840||John Lackey||0.244||0.620|
|Scott Feldman||0.294||0.824||Mike Leake||0.218||0.635|
- Hughes really had his struggles against righties last season. Owning a .369 wOBA when facing them, he’s not someone I would trust, even when facing a team like the White Sox.
- I said it the last time he pitched, Eickhoff is a sneaky play, especially on a night like tonight where the heart of the Padres lineup, Matt Kemp and Wil Myers, are both right handed batters. Eickhoff owned a 9.9 K/9 against righties last season.
Batter vs. Pitcher Splits
|Freddie Freeman||Stephen Strasburg||31||2.7|
|Carlos Beltran||J.A. Happ||24||2.5|
|Pablo Sandoval||Ubaldo Jimenez||39||2.1|
- Freeman has owned Strasburg in the times they’ve met. Freeman owns an impressive line going 12-31 against Strasburg with two doubles, three home runs and nine RBIs.
- I’m curious of Sandoval will get a start today with his good numbers against Jimenez. Sandoval is 14-39 against Jimenez with two doubles, a triple (what?) two home runs and seven RBIs.
Pitcher to Build Around
Carlos Carrasco – CLE vs. TBR – $11,900 – I was torn between Carraco and Carlos Rodon tonight. What bumped me to Carrasco was the higher strikeout potential and the fact that the Twins are pretty right-handed heavy in their lineup. The strength for Rodon is pitching against lefties. In the grand scheme of things, I still like Rodon. Now, back to Carrasco. He had a disappointing start to the 2016 season, grabbing only 8.5 points against Boston. He pitched only five innings allowing four runs on seven hits with a 5:1 K:BB ratio. He also gave up three home runs, which is never something we want to see. Tonight, he gets a much better matchup against the Rays, who were 9th in strikeouts in 2015. Carrasco is a big strike out pitcher, owning a 10.6 K/9 last season, and he induces a ton of ground balls, hitting almost 50% to both lefties and righties last season. He’s the most expensive pitcher on the slate, but I think he should be worth it.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Paul Goldschmidt ARZ vs. LAD – $5,300 – Rostering Paul Goldschmidt. Thumbs up. Rostering Paul Goldschmidt against a lefty. Bigger thumbs up. Rostering Paul Goldschmidt against a lefty who owned a .343 wOBA and allowed 14 of the 15 home runs to right handed batters? BIGGEST thumbs up. So yes, that was my way of saying I love Goldy tonight. He’s pricey for sure, but the stars align here for an ideal matchup for the first baseman. Last season, Goldy owned a .455 wOBA against lefties with an ISO of .256. Granted, the majority of his home runs came against right-handed pitchers, but overall, Goldy crushes lefties.
Save Big by Drafting…
Eduardo Escobar – MIN vs CHW – $2,900 – Don’t you love finding those value plays that cost under $3,000? It’s like ordering a medium coffee and they accidentally hand you a large. Escobar has some sneaky numbers for someone who costs just $2,900 on the night. Last season against lefties, Escobar owned a .334 wOBA with an ISO of .215. He hit 31 doubles last season with four triples and 12 home runs. Truly, I didn’t even realize how many extra base hits this guy had last season. He’s a switch hitter, so batting right-handed against Rodon will certainly play in his favor.
Stack Em Up
PIT vs DET (Shane Greene) – I hate to be obvious, but man, how can you not just take the Pirates tonight against Shane Greene? He was a mess last season. He’s horrible against lefties, which makes me think Matt Joyce will be batting lead off tonight. Last season in 16 starts and 18 games total, Greene had a .425 wOBA against lefties and .327 against righties. I just don’t see this game going well, and Greene will most likely be pulled quickly. The Tigers bullpen is not anything to write home about either, so I’m ok if Greene gets a quick hook here.