WATCH: STACK TO CONSIDER
Wednesday night brings us a 10-game slate of games to work with. Let’s get you set for this one and as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Milwaukee Brewers – Marcus Stroman ($9,300) – Stroman is fresh off his first start of the season against the Tampa Bay Rays, where he pitched 6.1 innings allowing just one run on six hits with a 5:2 K:BB ratio for 21.5 fantasy points. It’s no secret that the Brewers are the strikeout kings against righties. In fact, their active roster combines for a K% of 26.1%, ranked highest in the league. Stroman isn’t a power pitcher by any means, but he still owned a respectable 7.3 K/9 last season. I think he’s a bit pricey at $9,300, but his matchup is certainly a favorable one.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox – 10 projected runs – A double-digit run projection is expected for tonight’s matchup of Ubaldo Jimenez of the Orioles and Steven Wright of the Red Sox. Jimenez picked up where he left off in 2016, allowing five run on seven hits in just 7.1 innings against the Yankees his first time out. Jimenez also had a BB/9 of 4.5 last season, and the Red Sox are not a team you want to let on base.
Wright will make his 2017 debut tonight at Fenway Park, where he saw the majority of his struggles last season. Posting a .325 wOBA at home (compared to his .248 on the road) Wright is facing an Orioles team that has an implied team run total of 4.7 as of this afternoon. I’m not too trusting of him as of now, as I need to see a handful of good starts from him to prove he’s actually healthy and his shoulder isn’t still bothering him. Until then, I fully expect the Orioles to put some runs on the board tonight.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Toronto Blue Jays – 9.5 projected runs – The Blue Jays are the favorite in this one, with an implied team total of 5.3 runs. This shouldn’t come as a surprise as the Brewers are running out Chase Anderson. Anderson was getting torched on the road last season, posting a .358 wOBA with a .517 SLG and a .332 OBP. As if that wasn’t bad enough, 16 of his 28 total home runs came on the road, with right-handed batters connecting for 10 of those.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants (AT&T Park) – The D-Backs and Giants could run into issues later in this matchup, as rain looks to roll in around the sixth inning. Once it does arrive, it could pose an issue for when it eventually lets up. I would check the status of this again as the night draws closer.
Park Factors are ranked on a scale of 1.000. Anything above 1.000 is favorable towards the hitters. Anything below that mark, favors pitchers. All stats come from the 2016 season.
- Fenway Park – BAL vs. BOS – Fenway Park checks in as our most favorable ballpark on this 10-game slate. In 2016, every offensive category was favored here except walks.
- Rogers Centre – MIL vs. TOR – As if Chase Anderson didn’t have a tough enough matchup against the Blue Jays, he’ll have to play them in Toronto. The Rogers Centre favored every offensive category in 2016.
- Marlins Park – ATL vs. MIA – The Braves visit the Marlins tonight in the worst ballpark for hitters. Last season, we didn’t have a single offensive category that favored hitters.
- Citizens Bank Park – NYM vs. PHI – Citizens Bank Park isn’t very favorable for any hitter that enters it. Home runs were the only category that got the nod here last season.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters
|Worst vs. LHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs. LHB||OPS||AVG|
|A.J. Griffin||.978||.286||Steven Wright||.608||.209|
|Shelby Miller||.943||.329||Chase Anderson||.670||.205|
|Matt Cain||.901||.322||John Lackey||.694||.242|
Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters
|Worst vs. RHB||OPS||AVG||Best vs. RHB||OPS||AVG|
|Chase Anderson||.930||.311||Brandon McCarthy||.587||.183|
|Mike Fiers||.843||.287||John Lackey||.609||.201|
|Matt Cain||.836||.281||Jason Hammel||.679||.238|
Batter vs. Pitcher Splits
|Jose Abreu||Danny Salazar||16||3.18|
|Pablo Sandoval||Ubaldo Jimenez||32||2.28|
*(Fantasy Points Per At Bat)
Pitcher to Build Around
Marcus Stroman – TOR vs. MIL – $9,300 – I mentioned earlier that I wasn’t thrilled with the price of Stroman, but he does have a good matchup tonight. With the strikeout potential extremely high tonight, Stroman has the ability to put up a big score. With the Brewers owning the highest K% against righties in the league at 26.1%, I think Stroman will have the ability to exceed his five-strikeout, 21.5 DKFP outing in his last start.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Josh Donaldson – TOR vs. MIL – $5,000 – Tapping into the Jays-Brewers game once again, I love this matchup for Donaldson. As I mentioned, Chase Anderson was hit hard by righties, especially on the road. In 2016, Anderson posed a .398 wOBA in those matchups with a .595 SLG and a .362 OBP. As you’d expect, Donaldson excelled in these matchups at home, posting a .432 wOBA with a .633 SLG and a .407 OBP. Oh, and let’s not forget about his 20 home runs at home against righties.
Save Big by Drafting…
Aaron Hill – SFG vs. ARI – $2,200 – $2,200? Believe me, I’m not complaining. Hill was batting CLEAN UP for the Giants yesterday. With that being said, his overall numbers don’t look impressive, but lets all remember it’s only April 12. Hill owns a career .321 wOBA against right-handed pitching with a .320 OBP. These numbers aren’t going to blow you away, but with Shelby Miller on the hill and Hill potentially batting in the heart of the Giants lineup, at $2,200 I think he’s a great option.
Stack Em Up
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants (Matt Cain) While I’d prefer this matchup were in Arizona, I still think a D-Backs stack is a great option tonight. Cain posted a .368 wOBA at home last season with a .502 SLG and 10 of his 16 home runs allowed. With a pitcher who has clearly seen better days, the D-Backs should be able to soundly handle him tonight.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.