A full Sunday slate of baseball is on tap for today! We have some teams’ number one starters going this afternoon, so we’ll have plenty of ways to fill out our lineup. Let’s just right into all the information, and as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
NYM (-260) vs. PHI – Matt Harvey – Harvey isn’t just the favorite today, he’s the heavy, absolutely crushing favorite. Going against one of everyone’s most beloved teams to pick on, the Philadelphia Phillies. With that being said, Harvey is also the most expensive pitcher of the day at $11,900. After dealing with some blood clotting earlier this month, Harvey didn’t fare too well against the Royals, pitching 5.2 innings allowing four runs (three earned) on eight hits with a 2:2 K:BB ratio. He certainly has a much easier matchup today and should fare well, banking on the fact that he’s had enough rest. Harvey struggled against the Phillies last season allowing 10 runs in 18.1 innings but did carry a 21:2 K:BB ratio.
SEA (-180) vs. OAK – Felix Hernandez – The King gets the nod for today, facing the A’s in Seattle. Coming out of the gate, Hernandez held the Texas Rangers to three runs (one earned) on one hit in six innings pitched. The concerning factor there was his control. Hernandez owned a 6:5 K:BB ratio in this one even though he was able to limit the damage that could have come from it. Oakland ranked 15th overall in walks last season, and this is a team that can most certainly be patient if warranted. Hernandez checks in with a $11,600 price tag, the second most expensive on the day.
SD vs. COL– 11.5 runs – Runs were promised in Coors Field yesterday, and runs were had. A whopping 19 total runs were scored in yesterday’s matchup with 16 of those coming from the Padres. I think that was the boost they needed, huh? Matt Kemp also continued his torrid pace in Coors Field going 3-5 with two home runs and six RBIs. Today will feature James Shields for the Padres and Chad Bettis for the Rockies. In 12 innings last year, Shields allowed seven runs in 13.2 innings pitched, giving up two home runs, with a 13:7 K:BB ratio. Bettis wasn’t a big fan of pitching at home, owning a 4.99 ERA over 61.1 IP, allowing seven home runs and a 55:19 K:BB ratio.
BOS vs. TOR – 9.5 runs – The Boston Red Sox will throw knuckleballer Steven Wright on the mound to take on Marco Estrada of Toronto. Thank goodness it wasn’t R.A. Dickey today, could you imagine that? Wright struggled on the road in 10 games last season (five of them being starts) allowing a 31:20 K:BB ratio in 43.2 IP. Eight of his 12 home runs also came on the road. With Estrada, his transition to the American League went much smoother than most, owning a 2.95 ERA at home with a 56:25 K:BB ratio. He does have issues with keeping the ball in the yard, as he allowed 24 home runs in 2015.
1) PIT vs. CIN (Great American Ballpark) – This one features a chance of rain that doesn’t look very threatening. We could see a minor delay in this one, but it should end up playing.
2) CLE vs. CHW (U.S Cellular Field) – Chicago is looking at a chance of rain all throughout the game with a high wind blowing from right to left at 19 mph. Watch this one closely.
3) NYY vs DET (Comerica Park) – This is the Sunday Night Baseball game starting at 8:05 ET. This game is going to see rain all throughout the night and could be a candidate to be cancelled. We also have a wind blowing in from center field at around 13 mph. I’d watch this one closely if you’re thinking of rostering anyone from this game.
Park Factors are rated on a scale of 1.000. Anything above 1.000 is favorable for hitters. Anything below favors pitchers.
- Coors Field – SDP vs. COL – As if you needed anymore conformation, yesterday was a great example of why Coors is the number one ballpark for hitters. Yesterday showcased 19 total runs with 27 hits with 10 of those going for extra bases.
- Camden Yards – BAL vs. TBR – Yesterday, the game was cancelled, so hopefully we have better weather today. Camden Yards ranks favorable in runs scored, singles, and home runs.
- AT&T Park – LAD vs. SFG – AT&T park ranks as the worst park for hitters in 2015. It had only triples as a favorable category for hitters, and, I mean, who can even rely on that? It’s a pitchers park for sure.
- Angel Stadium of Anaheim – TEX vs. LAA – In 2015, LAA Stadium ranked the second worst for hitters, and naturally, the second best for pitchers. With only walks favoring hitters, you can see why this is a tough place for offense.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left Handed Batters
|Worst vs LHB||AVG||OPS||Best vs LHB||AVG||OPS|
|James Shields||0.279||0.89||Dallas Keuchel||0.177||0.461|
|Jimmy Nelson||0.302||0.876||Jake Arrieta||0.159||0.449|
|Joe Ross||0.279||0.809||Josh Tomlin||0.156||0.448|
- James Shields could really have his hands full today as he struggles against lefties AND doesn’t pitch very well in Coors Field. I think it would be absolutely crazy to roster him in any type of format today. I mean, I guess he does have K upside with his 9.6 K/9, but you cannot trust him here.
- Tomlin could be a nice sneaky play today (if they get that game in). He pitched extremely well last season, and I feel like flew under the radar. He owned a 7.8 K/9 on the season and will only run you $8,100 today.
Pitchers vs. Right Handed Batters
|Worst vs RHB||AVG||OPS||Best vs RHB||AVG||OPS|
|Ricky Nolasco||0.388||0.942||Joe Ross||0.172||0.461|
|Josh Tomlin||0.235||0.838||Steven Wright||0.246||0.472|
|Chad Bettis||0.284||0.806||Matt Harvey||0.218||0.544|
- It’s quite eye opening to see the difference in Tomlin’s OPS and AVG allowed. Tomlin gave up 13 home runs last season with 9 of those coming against RHB. Tomlin also allowed 12 extra base hits last season with nine of them coming against righties.
- The best list is a bit deceiving, as Ross and Wright didn’t have nearly as many appearances as Harvey. Nonetheless, they had enough to qualify for this section, so here we are. Both Ross and Wright perform much better against righties than they do lefties, so keep that in mind.
Batter vs. Pitcher Splits
|Bryce Harper||Tom Koehler||24||3.16|
|Nolan Arenado||James Shields||20||2.95|
|Alex Rodriguez||Justin Verlander||32||2.9|
|Shin-soo Choo||Jered Weaver||42||1.92|
- Harper has given nightmares to Koehler in their 24 matchups together. Of the seven hits Harper has, five of them have gone for home runs.
- Like Harper, Rodriguez has also tortured Verlander in their prior meetings. Of the 11 hits A-Rod has against Verlander, six of them have gone for extra bases, with five of them being home runs.
Pitcher to Build Around
Dallas Keuchel – HOU vs. MIL – $10,300 -Keuchel feels a bit “cheap” on the day, as he checks in as the sixth most expensive pitcher on the slate. Going up against a Brewers team that was 10th in the league in strikeouts last season, I like this spot for Keuchel. Against lefties last season, the Brewers had a team combined wOBA of .292 with an ISO of .148. Keuchel didn’t face them last season, so I’m going strictly off season numbers here. What I also like about this matchup for Keuchel, is the 22% K% against lefties for the Brewers last season. We could see some nice points being put up by Keuchel in this game. Fire him up.
Heavy Hitter to Pay For
Mike Trout – LAA vs. TEX (Martin Perez) – $5,400 – There are a few factors that have me on Trout for today. First off, he’s come out of the gate not hitting well. As of this morning, Trout is sitting at .211 with no home runs or RBIs, and a .549 OPS. Not very impressive to say the least. Next, his price point. This goes perfectly with the early slump. People will see his price point, see the low numbers and pass. That’s great, we’ll happily pick up the slack. His matchup today against Martin Perez is a perfect one to target. Last season, Trout owned a .434 wOBA against lefties with an ISO of .285. Perez struggles immensely against right handed bats and Trout is exactly that. I think he’ll be low owned today with the combination of high priced pitchers and Trout salary.
Save Big by Drafting…
Mike Napoli – CLE vs. CHW (Jose Quintana) – $3,600 – Here’s the thing about Napoli. When he’s locked in, this guy is locked in. When he’s not, he can’t hit anything you throw at him. Right now, he’s locked in with a good matchup on tap. Napoli faces Jose Quintana who is a LHP. Perfect storm for Napoli, who owned a .403 wOBA against lefties last season with an ISO of .285. Quintana struggles against right-handed bats, allowing a .320 wOBA and giving up 11 of his 16 home runs to righties. At just $3,600, you’ll be looking to save money somewhere today and this could be a great spot. Just watch the weather in this match up.
Stack Em Up
TEX vs. LAA (Jered Weaver) – I don’t know what has suddenly happened to Jered Weaver. He’s completely dropped off and continues to lose zip on his fastball. He faces the Texas Rangers tonight, and I feel as if this is a stack that will go completely overlooked. The majority of Rangers starters are priced under $4K, which would allow us to grab some quality hitting in this stack. Weaver is not coming into this matchup 100%, and even though I don’t take Spring Training into account very much, he did allow five home runs in 9.2 innings. With how poorly he’s pitched recently, I take that into account.