Wednesday’s MLB schedule has 14 games, with five on the early 12:35 p.m. ET slate, three on the 3:40 p.m. ET afternoon slate and five on the 7:05 p.m. ET main slate. We will examine stacks from all three slates that fantasy owners can consider using Wednesday.
For up-to-the-minute news, analysis and lineups, download the DK Live app, as MLB news, injury reports, weather and betting lines on DraftKings Sportsbook can change throughout the day. Value also unexpectedly can open up due to lineup changes, making it important to stay up-to-the-minute with the DK Live app until lineups lock. You can also follow DK Live on Twitter at @DKLive.
1. Houston Astros (main slate)
The Astros get a park upgrade in hitter-friendly Arlington to face LHP Mike Minor, who allowed worse contact quality than average to righties last year, allowing RHBs to produce an expected wOBA of .325 based on the exit velocities and angles of their batted balls, 10 percentage points higher than the league average of .314.
Minor’s 4.45 FIP allowed to right-handed batters also was worse than average on the back of less strikeouts than average and more home runs than average.
Minor’s home run rate not surprisingly was worse in home games at Arlington last year, allowing 1.62 home runs per nine innings, higher than the league average of 1.16 home runs allowed per nine innings.
Players to ConsiderAlex Bregman ($5,400)
Jose Altuve ($5,200)
George Springer ($4,900)
Carlos Correa ($4,800)
Yuli Gurriel ($4,200)
2. New York Yankees (afternoon slate)
It is expected to be reasonably warm in the Bronx, with game-time temperatures in the 60s, and it also is expected to be windy, which could create a jet stream out to right field. The weather conditions appear ripe for home runs, especially with the current wind forecast.
The Yankees have a matchup vs. LHP Matt Boyd, who struggled away from Comerica Park last year and was especially home run prone against righties on the road, allowing more than two home runs per nine innings pitched, nearly double the league average.
Players to ConsiderAaron Judge ($5,000)
Gary Sanchez ($4,900)
Gleyber Torres ($4,600)
Luke Voit ($4,400)
Clint Frazier ($4,300)
3. Boston Red Sox (main slate)
While the Red Sox get a park downgrade on the road in Oakland, they draw a soft opponent in RHP Marco Estrada, who was very poor at preventing runs last year and is projected to allow significantly more runs than average this year.
Estrada is primarily a four-seam fastball/changeup pitcher, which gives him reverse platoon splits due to the movement of his pitches more closely aligning with the swing paths of righties than lefties, making Red Sox’ RHBs the preferred target in the stack.
Players to ConsiderMookie Betts ($5,500)
J.D. Martinez ($5,100)
Andrew Benintendi ($4,800)
Xander Bogaerts ($4,300)
Rafael Devers ($4,100)
4. Toronto Blue Jays (afternoon slate)
The Blue Jays have a matchup in hitter-friendly Rogers Centre against RHP Nate Karns, who is projected to allow more runs than average this year. Karns is not expected to pitch deep into the game after throwing only two innings in his first start, where exposure against an Orioles bullpen that also is projected be worse than average could come quickly.
Players to ConsiderRandal Grichuk ($4,700)
Justin Smoak ($4,300)
Danny Jansen ($4,200)
Brandon Drury ($4,100)
Billy McKinney ($3,900)
5. Cincinnati Reds (early slate)
The Reds play at home in hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park against a right-handed pitcher who struggled against lefties last year. Freddy Peralta allowed LHB to produce an expected wOBA of .358 based on the exit velocities and angles of their batted balls, worse than the league average of .315.
Peralta allowed more home runs than average to LHBs, allowing 1.59 home runs per nine innings vs. LHBs, worse than the league average of 1.16. His 15% walk rate vs. LHBs was also extremely poor. The elevated dingers and walks vs. lefties contributed to a poor 5.16 FIP vs. lefties.
While Peralta was poor against lefties, he was very hard on righties, making RHBs unappealing. Download the DK Live app for up-to-the-minute news on the Reds’ lineup, including which LHBs are batting near the top of the order.
Players to ConsiderJoey Votto ($4,000)
Scott Schebler ($3,900)
Jesse Winker ($3,700)
Derek Dietrich ($3,600)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is timfinn521) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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