Monday’s 11-game MLB slate has an intriguing combination of high-powered offenses and value spots to consider targeting. Here are the top stacks that stand out to me.
It’s important to note that you should always keep an eye on the news and lineup notes from @DKLive in order to best prepare for each slate. In addition, feel free to get at me on Twitter with any questions — @julianedlow.
1. CLEVELAND INDIANS
Outside of getting shut out by the Royals on Saturday night, the Indians scored five or more runs in six of their other previous seven and are projected for 5.2 runs in Toronto on Monday. Ryan Borucki ($7,600) will get the start for the Blue Jays, making his season debut. In 2018, Borucki started 17 games and managed a solid 3.87 ERA.
Borucki’s been dealing with elbow discomfort all season, and setbacks have pushed back his season debut. Who knows how prepared he’ll be for this start, but it doesn’t come in an easy spot. If Borucki’s outing ends up a brief one, Toronto’s bullpen will have a tall task against Cleveland’s hot lineup.
Players to ConsiderOscar Mercado ($4,900)
Francisco Lindor ($4,500)
Carlos Santana ($4,300)
Jordan Luplow ($4,200)
Jose Ramirez ($4,200)
Jason Kipnis ($3,400)
2. NEW YORK YANKEES
Minnesota hasn’t been all that great of an offensive park this season given the Twins’ splits, but this is a great game for runs on this slate. The Yankees are not only baseball’s top overall offense but also average an MLB-high 6.19 runs per game on the road. Martin Perez ($8,100) will get the start for the Twins, with the Yankees projected for 6.0 runs.
After a hot start, Perez struggled in June, with a 5.08 ERA in five starts. He’s leveled back off some in July with a 3.75 ERA, but it’s in just two starts are home, against much lesser offenses. This will be Perez’s first matchup with the Yanks this season, getting tagged by them for seven runs in five innings in his only starts against them in 2018. Minnesota has an average bullpen, but it could run thin if New York can hit the LHP hard in the early going.
Players to ConsiderAaron Judge ($4,900)
Edwin Encarnacion ($4,900)
DJ LeMahieu ($4,800)
Aaron Hicks ($4,600)
Gary Sanchez ($4,500)
Gleyber Torres ($4,300)
3. HOUSTON ASTROS
It was a great start to the season for Homer Bailey ($7,400), but after being traded to Oakland in hopes of making a playoff push, all of a sudden he has expectations. This is exactly where I want to target against Bailey. While he got off to a solid start in his A’s debut, it wound up as a 10-2 loss to the Mariners. Pitching in Houston will prove to be a difficult task.
Houston’s ninth-ranked offense has been hot out of the break, scoring at least five runs in eight of its past 10 games. I’m projecting some regression here from both Bailey (who pitched in Kansas City for the first half of the season) and Oakland’s bullpen (which has slightly skewed numbers from all the success at home). The Astros’ 5.6-run projection in this one comes with plenty of upside, but the bats are a little more expensive than New York and Cleveland.
Players to ConsiderGeorge Springer ($5,400)
Yordan Alvarez ($5,100)
Alex Bregman ($5,000)
Yuli Gurriel ($4,600)
Jose Altuve ($4,500)
Michael Brantley ($4,500)
4. MINNESOTA TWINS
Head back to the game in Minnesota, the Twins are just behind the Yankees with a 5.6-run projection, going against CC Sabathia ($8,600). Sabathia’s fallen off a cliff on the road, where he has a 5.84 ERA, and is allowing home runs at nearly twice the rate. Meanwhile, the Twins have crushed LHPs at home this season.
The Yankees’ second-ranked bullpen is for real, but so is Minnesota’s third-ranked offense. There should be enough upside in five innings against Sabathia for the Twins to rack up some runs here, just as they did against solid Oakland pitching in a four-game series over the weekend — 20 total runs, including seven Sunday. Five of the Twins in the heart of this order have homered off CC in their careers.
Players to ConsiderMitch Garver ($5,400)
Miguel Sano ($4,500)
Nelson Cruz ($4,400)
Max Kepler ($4,300)
Jonathan Schoop ($3,900)
(All nine bats are in play for me here)
5. CHICAGO WHITE SOX
The White Sox are projected for 4.9 runs at home, going against Trevor Richards ($7,000) and the Marlins in interleague play. Richards has been abysmal recently, with a 7.20 ERA in his past four starts. While he pitched well in an AL park earlier in the season, it came during the month of May, when he had a 2.86 ERA, and was against Detroit’s 29th-ranked offense.
Miami’s bullpen also has been poor all season, ranking 23rd overall with a 4.90 ERA. The White Sox’ offense has a low floor at times, but we can’t ignore the upside in this spot. The real determining factor in stacking Chicago is just how cheap these bats are.
Players to ConsiderYoan Moncada ($4,500)
Jose Abreu ($4,000)
James McCann ($4,000)
Leury Garcia ($3,900)
Jon Jay ($3,200)
Yolmer Sanchez ($2,800)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jedlow) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.