Monday’s MLB main slate consists of 12 games, and features some heavy favorites with high run projections. Here are my top stacking options.
It’s important to note that you should always keep an eye on the news and lineup notes from @DKLive in order to best prepare for each slate. In addition, feel free to get at me on Twitter with any questions — @julianedlow.
1. CINCINNATI REDSThe more traditional big-name teams have some higher run projections straight up, but the value on the slate clearly lies with the Reds. They’ll be at home against an Angels squad that’s on a terrible skid since a two-game sweep of the Dodgers on the road. Since then, the Angels have won just two of 10 games, allowing an average of 7.9 runs in the eight losses — five of which were to the Orioles and Tigers.
Taylor Cole ($4,400) will open things up for Los Angeles, but isn’t likely to go more than a couple innings. Cole could barely get an out the only time he was on the mound so far this month, giving up four runs in 1/3 innings in Cleveland over the weekend. The Angels bullpen is plummeting down the rankings, and the Reds are coming off a strong showing against the Braves; Cincy has been one of the top offenses since the All-Star break, and is projected for 5.7 runs on Monday.
Players to ConsiderEugenio Suarez ($4,400)
Nick Senzel ($4,100)
Joey Votto ($4,000)
Jose Iglesias ($3,600)
Aristides Aquino ($3,600)
2. BOSTON RED SOXThe Red Sox are on a brutal slide against their top competition in the AL East, and while their season outlook may be at rock bottom, this is still a bounce-back spot for the offense. Boston’s at home against Mike Montgomery ($4,800) and the Royals, with a slate-high 7.2-run projection.
Montgomery has a 6.34 ERA this season, starting just three of his 23 outings this season. He’s struggled in nearly every appearance he’s made on the road, with an 11.49 ERA (13 games, 1 start). Expect Montgomery to have a short stint here, but Kansas City’s 24th-ranked bullpen shouldn’t show much resistance. Boston still has a top 3 offense this season, averaging 5.78 runs per games at home (which ranks behind only Colorado).
Players to ConsiderMookie Betts ($5,500)
Rafael Devers ($5,500)
Xander Bogaerts ($5,300)
Andrew Benintendi ($5,200)
Sam Travis ($3,400)
3. NEW YORK YANKEESAfter pounding the Red Sox over the weekend, the competition gets even easier with a trip to Baltimore. Gabriel Ynoa ($4,500) has pitched better over the last month to lower his ERA to 5.55, but it’s unlikely he’ll pitch more than a couple innings in this one. That leaves the Yankees in position to see a lot of the Orioles’ 29th-ranked bullpen.
New York’s offense hasn’t been particularly hot lately, but managed 26 total runs in the four-game series against Boston. That’s slightly above the Yankees’ MLB-leading average of 5.81 runs per game. The Yanks scored 34 runs in a four-game series the last time they visited Camden Yards, and are projected for 6.5 runs on this slate.
Players to ConsiderDJ LeMahieu ($5,600)
Gleyber Torres ($5,100)
Didi Gregorius ($5,000)
Mike Tauchman ($4,700)
Aaron Judge ($4,600)
4. CHICAGO CUBSThe Cubs have been fantastic at home this season, and are projected for 5.4 runs in interleague play against Oakland. Chris Bassitt ($8,600) is a solid arm, but struggles more away from home, with a 4.53 ERA. Oakland’s bullpen numbers also benefit from playing half their games in a pitcher’s park.
Chicago just returned from a long road trip, sweeping the Brewers in the first three games back, scoring 17 runs in the series. With the A’s having strong pitching numbers, and some other offenses in stronger spots on paper, this could be a spot to get an off-the-radar Cubs stack, in a much better spot than the numbers would indicate. Cheap salaries for a team projected for five-plus runs also help this stack standout.
Players to ConsiderJavier Baez ($4,700)
Kris Bryant ($4,100)
Anthony Rizzo ($4,000)
Kyle Schwarber ($3,900)
Jason Heyward ($3,700)
Nick Castellanos ($3,500)
5. LOS ANGELES DODGERSOutside of Cody Bellinger ($5,600), who is appropriately priced for an MVP, the Dodgers are much too cheap for a 5.3 run projection against Michael Wacha ($6,000). Wacha’s having a poor season, posting a 5.15 ERA, but is getting a little hype because he’s pitched well since the break — but it’s come in three appearances out of the bullpen.
Wacha’s start against the Dodgers was his worst of the season, giving up seven runs (three homers) in 3 2/3 innings. Los Angeles has raked at home this season, and is the fourth offense overall, averaging 5.44 runs per game. The LHBs should give Wacha fits in this one.
Players to ConsiderCody Bellinger ($5,600)
Max Muncy ($4,400)
Justin Turner ($4,400)
Joc Pederson ($4,000)
Corey Seager ($4,000)
Alex Verdugo ($3,800)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jedlow) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.