Monday’s nine-game slate doesn’t have many high-scoring projections, and the teams projected for the most runs have the most expensive bats. I wouldn’t say there’s much value in stacking this slate, but that just means you’ll need to balance yourself out when it comes to pitching. Here are my top stacks to target.
It’s important to note that you should always keep an eye on the news and lineup notes from @DKLive in order to best prepare for each slate. In addition, feel free to get at me on Twitter with any questions — @julianedlow.
1. ATLANTA BRAVESSan Diego LHP Nick Margevicius ($7,600) is off to a solid start, giving up two or fewer runs in four of his five starts. His 3.60 ERA is encouraging, but the Braves’ offense should present the toughest challenge of the young season.
After scoring another eight runs at home on Sunday, Atlanta is averaging 5.26 runs per game this season. Margevicius has allowed all three of his home runs to RHBs this season, so while I’d focus on that side of the dish, you also don’t need to fade the talented LHBs that are hitting so well right now. Atlanta’s projected for a slate-high 5.1 runs.
Players to ConsiderFreddie Freeman ($5,100)
Ronald Acuna Jr. ($4,900)
Josh Donaldson ($4,600)
Ozzie Albies ($4,500)
Dansby Swanson ($4,400)
Nick Markakis ($4,300)
2. BOSTON RED SOXWhile Boston’s pitching has been the focal point of its struggles this season, and rightly so, the offense just hasn’t been very good either. The Red Sox are averaging just 4.29 runs per game, which ranks 21st in baseball. Because this is such a thin slate for offense, we may need to trust the 4.9-run projection they have against the A’s.
Oakland will send RHP Frankie Montas ($8,300) to the mound, which has been more of a struggle on the road. Montas has a 2.50 ERA in three home starts, but that number jumps all the way to 4.09 on the road. The Rangers were able to score five total runs in Montas’ last start, the most Oakland’s given up in one of is starts this season. Montas has limited experience against the Red Sox, but has shut them out in 3 2/3 innings out of the bullpen. This could be more of a contrarian stack, even on a small slate, but you’ll need to pay up for a Red Sox lineup that just hasn’t been producing in hopes of some major changes.
Players to ConsiderMookie Betts ($5,200)
J.D. Martinez ($4,800; questionable, back)
Andrew Benintendi ($4,600)
Xander Bogaerts ($4,500)
Michael Chavis ($4,300)
Mitch Moreland ($4,200)
3. HOUSTON ASTROSThe Astros’ offense was held in check over the weekend, but got big home runs from unlikely names to win games. They’ll face RHP Jake Odorizzi ($7,100) in Minnesota, where they’re projected for 4.9 runs. Odorizzi has a 4.37 ERA on the season, but had a pretty clean start against Houston — two earned runs in 5 2/3 innings. That said, Houston still managed to score five runs in the game, which was the third time the opposition scored five or more runs in Odorizzi’s last four starts.
Those other two starts that went over five runs wound up being a 9-6 loss to the Mets and a 10-4 loss to the Phillies. The Astros have hit Odorizzi pretty well over the years, leaving them in position to be right around their season average of 4.71 runs. Again, on a 15-game Friday night slate, I’d probably look elsewhere. On this slate, Houston is a top 3 offense.
Players to ConsiderGeorge Springer ($5,300)
Michael Brantley ($4,800)
Carlos Correa ($4,800)
Jose Altuve ($4,700)
Alex Bregman ($4,700)
Josh Reddick ($4,200)
4. MILWAUKEE BREWERSThe Mets finally held the Brewers to just two runs in their series finale on Sunday, but Milwaukee had scored 18 total runs in the first two games of the series. The Brew Crew is projected for a modest 4.3 runs in this game, but average 5.64 runs per game at home.
Colorado LHP Kyle Freeland ($7,700) is having a below-average season, with a 4.23 ERA through his first five starts. Christian Yelich ($5,800) is listed as DTD with a back injury, and would obviously be a huge loss if he sits out tonight. But the LHB is extremely pricey against a LHP, so I kind of like the idea of stacking Milwaukee if Yelich sits out again, while the perception will be to fade the Brewers and look elsewhere.
Players to ConsiderLorenzo Cain ($4,700)
Ryan Braun ($4,500)
Yasmanu Grandal ($4,500)
Hernan Perez ($4,000)
Travis Shaw ($3,700)
Jesus Aguilar ($3,300)
5. TAMPA BAY RAYSTampa Bay averages 4.7 runs per game this season, but have been much more productive on the road, where it’s averaging 5.73 runs. The Royals will start Brad Keller ($7,800), who just finished up his suspension for hitting Tim Anderson with a pitch.
Keller has a 3.41 ERA this season, but had his worst start of the season in his last game — conveniently allowing five runs in 6 1/3 innings against the Rays. Tampa went on to win that game 6-3 at home, and the number suggests an even higher upside in this game with better offensive production on the road.
Players to ConsiderTommy Pham ($4,900)
Brandon Lowe ($4,800)
Yandy Diaz ($4,600)
Avisail Garcia ($4,200)
Kevin Kiermaier ($4,100)
Ji-Man Choi ($4,000)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jedlow) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.