It’s important to note that you should always keep an eye on the news and lineup notes from @DKLive in order to best prepare for each slate. In addition, feel free to get at me on Twitter with any questions — @julianedlow.
1. CLEVELAND INDIANS
The Indians are in a tremendous spot against Ryan Carpenter ($4,800) and the Tigers, and come with some nice value plays. Carpenter’s been a mess this season, pitching just 29 2/3 innings in six starts. Opposing bats are hitting almost a home run every three innings against him, a number that’s almost identical to last season.
Carpenter took a loss to the Indians last season, giving up six runs in five innings. Carpenter has surrendered six or more runs in half his starts this season, including eight to the Twins in his most recent start. While Cleveland’s had its struggles offensively, it’s projected for 5.3 runs in this matchup. Detroit’s 26th-ranked bullpen should allow the Indians to keep putting up runs, even after Carpenter’s knocked out of the game.
Players to ConsiderFrancisco Lindor ($5,200)
Carlos Santana ($4,800)
Jordan Luplow ($4,200)
Oscar Mercado ($4,100)
Jose Ramirez ($3,500)
Jason Kipnis ($2,900)
2. SAN DIEGO PADRES
The Padres continue their series at Coors Field and have a great matchup against Jeff Hoffman ($6,100). Hoffman has an 8.06 ERA through his first five starts and has similar splits on the road versus at Coors, which tells us he’s just a terrible pitcher. The opposition averages more than 5.5 runs per game in Hoffman’s starts, and San Diego’s projected for just about six runs in this one.
The Padres’ run totals are never impressive with the park they play in, but they score almost a full run per game more on the road this season, including six runs in the series opener Thursday. While Colorado has a top-10 bullpen, this spot sets up nicely for the Padres to get to Hoffman early.
Players to ConsiderFernando Tatis Jr. ($5,700)
Franmil Reyes ($5,000)
Wil Myers ($4,900)
Eric Hosmer ($4,700)
Josh Naylor ($4,500)
Manny Machado ($4,300)
3. OAKLAND ATHLETICS
The A’s are projected for more than 5.5 runs at home, facing Marco Gonzales ($5,300) and the Mariners. Gonzales faced Oakland to begin the season, giving up four runs in six innings, an eventual 9-7 win for Seattle. Gonzales has given up 20 runs in his past three starts, failing to get any deeper than the sixth inning.
The A’s have an above-average offense this season, averaging 4.88 runs per game. While they perform better on the road, this matchup should help them exceed those numbers. Seattle’s bullpen has been even worse lately, now sliding to 28th in baseball with a 5.45 ERA.
Players to ConsiderMarcus Semien ($4,500)
Mark Canha ($4,400)
Matt Chapman ($4,200)
Khris Davis ($4,100)
Chad Pinder ($3,700)
4. MINNESOTA TWINS
The Twins continue to be the most explosive offense in baseball, scoring 6.03 runs per game. The Twins haven’t scored fewer than six runs in any of their past four games, which is exactly what they’re projected for against the Royals. Fresh off 10 runs Thursday, Minnesota will face Brad Keller ($5,800), who’s just 1-5 on the road with a 4.66 ERA.
Keller was solid in his lone start against the Twins this season, allowing three runs in six innings in a game Minnesota went on to win 5-4. Keller’s reverse splits make this matchup a little less enticing with all the LHBs the Twins have, but this is still a strong spot nonetheless. Kansas City’s 23rd-ranked bullpen should help the Twins finish strong.
Players to ConsiderJorge Polanco ($5,000)
Max Kepler ($4,900)
Nelson Cruz ($4,900)
Eddie Rosario ($4,800)
C.J. Cron ($4,700)
Marwin Gonzalez ($4,100)
5. COLORADO ROCKIES
We can’t ignore the Rockies at home, even with their expensive price tags. Cal Quantrill ($5,000) hasn’t been anything special for the Padres, pitching just 26 innings through five starts with a 4.85 ERA. San Diego’s lost four of the five games Quantrill’s pitched in, letting up an average of 6.25 runs in those games. Take those numbers to Coors Field, and we should see some inflation.
As you’d expect, the Rockies are leading the majors in runs per game at home by a wide margin at 6.32. Colorado has scored six or more runs in three of their four home games during this homestand, including nine in the first game of this series. The Padres have a below-average bullpen, which should be important since Quantrill doesn’t pitch deep into games.
Players to ConsiderCharlie Blackmon ($5,800)
Trevor Story ($5,500)
Daniel Murphy ($5,400)
David Dahl ($5,300)
Ryan McMahon ($4,300)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jedlow) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.