It’s important to note that you should always keep an eye on the news and lineup notes from @DKLive in order to best prepare for each slate. In addition, feel free to get at me on Twitter with any questions — @julianedlow.
1. BOSTON RED SOX
The Tigers will send Gregory Soto ($5,200) to the mound, which pretty much always means they’re in trouble. Soto’s made six starts this season, lasting just a total of 21 1/3 innings, giving up 20 runs (8.44 ERA). Soto hasn’t lasted more than four innings in any start this season, and he has the 25th-ranked bullpen in baseball behind him.
Meanwhile, the Red Sox are averaging 5.7 runs per game away from Fenway Park this season, coming off eight runs in a comeback victory over the Blue Jays on Thursday. The Red Sox scored 21 runs in that three-game series, are averaging just shy of seven runs per game over their last 18 games. This pitching staff just isn’t built to slow down an offense this hot and this talented, which is why Boston has a 6.8-run projection.
Players to ConsiderRafael Devers ($5,500)
Xander Bogaerts ($5,100)
Mookie Betts ($5,000)
J.D. Martinez ($4,800)
Christian Vazquez ($4,300)
Michael Chavis ($4,200)
2. WASHINGTON NATIONALS
The Nationals offense hasn’t been all that hot lately but finds itself in a good bounce-back spot here. Washington’s projected for 6.2 runs at home against Brad Keller ($6,700) and the Royals. Keller has a 5.08 ERA on the road this season, and he has given up six or more earned runs in two of his last three starts.
Kansas City’s 21st-ranked bullpen shouldn’t be much help behind Keller, who’s lasted just 12 total innings in his last three starts. The Nats are still averaging slightly above the league average in runs per game at 4.94, but bring a high ceiling into this one, particularly the LHBs.
Players to ConsiderJuan Soto ($5,400)
Trea Turner ($5,300)
Anthony Rendon ($5,200)
Adam Eaton ($3,800)
3. ATLANTA BRAVES
The Braves are projected for just shy of six runs in Atlanta, where they’ve been scorching hot at the plate. Jordan Yamamoto ($8,600) is off to a really nice start to his career with Miami, but his four starts have only come against two teams. He’s held the Cardinals scoreless twice, but he’s given up six runs in nine innings to a much more comparable Phillies offense.
Yamamoto’s tall task will be to slow down an offense averaging 5.95 runs per game at home this season, that just scored 21 total runs in its last two games. There’s limited sample on Yamamoto, but the way the Braves are hitting the ball, they should be able to get to him, as well as Miami’s 26th-ranked bullpen.
Players to ConsiderRonald Acuna Jr. ($5,200)
Freddie Freeman ($5,100)
Austin Riley ($4,500)
Josh Donaldson ($3,900)
Nick Markakis ($3,900)
4. HOUSTON ASTROS
The Astros are projected for 5.5 runs at home, going up against Noe Ramirez ($4,100) and the Angels. Ramirez has only started three games this season, and rarely pitches more than an inning. His ceiling is pitching the first two innings. Los Angeles’ bullpen ranks dead smack in the middle of the league, with a 4.45 ERA.
Houston’s offense went through a rough patch, but it has gotten some health back, and it’s made a difference. The ‘Stros scored six runs in each of their last two home games, and six or more in three of their last four overall. Big names in this lineup are far too underpriced, just waiting to put up some big games and see their salaries on the rise.
Players to ConsiderGeorge Springer ($5,200)
Yordan Alvarez ($4,600)
Alex Bregman ($4,500)
Jose Altuve ($4,000)
Michael Brantley ($4,000)
Yuli Gurriel ($4,000)
5. BALTIMORE ORIOLES/TORONTO BLUE JAYS
I’ll combine the two here because I think this could be a really interesting game stack. With so many big-name offenses in terrific spots, these two bad teams could fly under the radar, but provide some cheap production.
Baltimore and Toronto rank 27th and 24th respectively in runs per game this season, but just look at the game logs for Dylan Bundy ($8,100) and Aaron Sanchez ($4,900). Despite Bundy’s 4.91 ERA, opposing teams still averaged 7.4 runs per game in his five starts in June. His ERA did grow to 5.68 in those games, but Bundy rarely pitches more than five or six innings, leaving a lot of pressure on a terrible Orioles bullpen. The Blue Jays have lost eight consecutive games Sanchez has pitched in, surrendering 8.5 runs per game. So yeah, this one has the potential to get out of control on both sides.
Players to ConsiderJonathan Villar ($4,400)
Trey Mancini ($4,300)
Dwight Smith Jr. ($4,000)
Chance Sisco ($4,000)
Anthony Santander ($3,900)
Lourdes Gurriel ($5,300)
Eric Sogard ($4,600)
Cavan Biggio ($4,400)
Vladamir Guerrero Jr. ($3,800)
Justin Smoak ($3,700)
Teoscar Hernandez ($3,300)
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jedlow) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.