Tuesday baseball is back, and we have 14 games on tap for the main fantasy baseball slate. There are a wide array of pitching options, and there will be some tough decisions to make tonight. That is what I am here to help with!
Here are five different pitchers fantasy owners can consider using on DraftKings:
1. Justin Verlander, $11,300, HOU vs. CWS
Verlander continues to be one of the most dominant pitchers baseball has to offer. He has allowed one earned run or less in seven of his 10 starts, while striking out 77 batters in 64 1/3 innings. Since the start of 2018, Verlander has struck out a third of all batters faced and has an xFIP of 3.23. He deserves to be the highest priced pitcher by $900.
This is a good matchup for Verlander as well. The White Sox have struck out 26% of the time against right-handed batters, fourth most in the league. Their wRC+ against righties is 95, just below average. Accentuating Verlander’s strength in this matchup is he has an unreal 38.4% strikeout rate against left-handed batters, typically the Achilles’ heel for right-handed pitching. There are five hitters in the expected White Sox lineup who will have the platoon “advantage” against Verlander today, but that is likely to their detriment.
One other note on Verlander is while his price might seem restrictive upon lineup construction, it is such a big slate there should be plenty of available batters to choose from. Lock in the easy points with Verlander, who has hit 30 DKFP seven times already this season.
2. Zack Greinke, $10,200, ARI at SD
Greinke has been almost as dominant as Verlander. He was shelled in his first start of the season, but since then has allowed three earned runs or fewer in every start. That includes allowing just one run or less in five of his past six starts. The only thing missing from his resume are the strikeouts. Greinke hasn’t been terrible in this regard, with 62 strikeouts in 64 2/3 innings, but it isn’t nearly as dominant as someone like Verlander. That’s where the price discrepancy is coming from.
Whatever strikeout upside Greinke still has, he has a good shot to hit it in this matchup. Despite adding Manny Machado ($3,900) this offseason, the Padres remain one of the worst offenses in baseball, particularly when it comes to strikeouts. No team strikes out more than San Diego against right-handed pitching (27.8%). Their wRC+ of 82 is 24th in baseball against righties. The Padres haven’t scored more than four runs in a game since their trip to Coors Field.
Greinke left his most recent start early with abdominal tightness but is taking his regular turn in the rotation Tuesday. That likely would not happen if he wasn’t fully healthy and ready to pitch.
3. Domingo German, $9,900, NYY at BAL
The Yankees have been incredibly banged up this year, but it is thanks to players like German that they are still in first place in the American League East. German has made nine appearances so far in 2019 and has an ERA of 2.50 while striking out just over a batter an inning.
This matchup has proven to be strong for German to date. He has faced Baltimore twice already and has given up a total of three earned runs in 13 innings with 11 strikeouts. The Orioles on the year are 21st in wRC+ against righties and strike out against them 22.4% of the time.
What has been making German so effective against Baltimore is his curveball. He deploys the pitch about 35% of the time and has given up just a .238 wOBA on it dating back to last season. The Orioles are a young team with not many batted ball events to go off of, but their top four hitters all have wOBA’s under .300 against curves, and nobody with at least 10 batted ball events has an ISO over .175 against it.
4. Spencer Turnbull, $7,800, DET vs. MIA
Turnbull has been phenomenal this season. His ERA sits at 2.40, and he has struck out 50 batters in 48 2/3 innings. He has not allowed more than three earned runs in any of his nine starts and no more than two earned runs in six straight.
As always, we love to attack the Marlins in DFS. They are last in wRC+ against right-handed pitching and strike out 26.6% of the time against righties, second-most in baseball. They are incredibly RHB-heavy in the lineup and are expected to have seven righties in the lineup Tuesday night. Turnbull sees a 10% increase in strikeout rate and allows 72 and 48 less points of wOBA and ISO, respectively, when facing righties versus lefties.
Turnbull is likely the ideal pairing with Verlander tonight, as he will mitigate some of the money spent on Verlander and will allow you to still fit some strong bats into your lineup. He does not possess a ton of win equity since the Tigers are such a bad team, but that is not a huge influence on DraftKings scoring.
5. Eduardo Rodriguez, $8,900, BOS at TOR
If you’re looking for a high-upside GPP play, Rodriguez is your guy. E-Rod has been VERY up and down this year, with four outings of four or more earned runs allowed and three with one earned run allowed or less. He has a 25.7% strikeout rate this year.
Despite the lack of consistency from Rodriguez, the Blue Jays are a team worth attacking. They have struck out 25.3% of the time against left-handed pitching and are 29th in wRC+ at 66. Toronto routinely gains no advantage from the platoon from a strikeout perspective. The righties expected to be in the Jays’ lineup today have a cumulative strikeout rate of 24.9% against lefties since the start of 2018.
The Blue Jays have a paltry .107 ISO against left-handed pitching this year, which sharply decreases Rodriguez’ chances of having a blowup outing. They are far less likely than most teams to make him pay for mistakes. Pairing Rodriguez with Turnbull would save you a ton of salary and allow you to play some of the more expensive stacks.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is amicsta) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.