Tuesday baseball is back, and we have 15 games on tap for the main fantasy baseball slate. There are a wide array of pitching options, and there will be some tough decisions to make tonight. That is what I am here to help with!
1. Patrick Corbin, $11,100, WAS vs. MIACorbin has had a couple of rough starts this year, but overall has been fantastic. He has allowed one earned run or less in seven of his 16 starts, and three earned runs or less in 12 of them. Corbin has also struck out 111 batters in 99 1/3 innings.
The Marlins have been one of the best matchups to attack all year, and have been featured in this column just about every week. They are a little better against lefties, striking out about 4% of the time less, but are still bottom-two in wRC+. Corbin has faced Miami twice this season and has totaled 16 innings with one earned run allowed, 14 strikeouts and just two walks. He has scored over 33 DKFP in both starts.
The secret to Corbin’s success is his sinker, which he throws about 27% more often to righties (40% total), and his slider, which he throws 34% of the time. The Marlins are extremely righty-heavy and are likely to see this pitch combination plenty. Miami is the worst team in baseball against both sliders and sinkers according to Fangraphs’ pitch value.
2. Matt Strahm, $6,900, SD vs. SFStrahm is another lefty that has struggled with the long ball of late, as he has given up two home runs in six straight starts. I’m not even mad — in fact, I’m impressed. That said, he has struck out over a batter per inning the past two months, including nine in his previous start. There is some upside here for the price.
Most importantly the matchup is pristine, the Giants are the worst team in baseball in wRC+ against lefties and strike out over 24% of the time against them. They also have an absolutely pathetic ISO, coming in under .120, and only the Marlins and Tigers have hit fewer homers against lefties. This matchup is great in a vacuum, but also perfect given Strahm’s skill-set and where he has struggled.
Strahm comes with some risk, but for the price he is an absolute steal. You can pair him with one of the expensive pitchers in either cash or GPPs.
3. Charlie Morton, $10,600, TB vs. BALHaving your best season yet at age 35 may seem strange, but it’s exactly what Morton has done in 2019. Morton is on pace to set career-highs in ERA, xFIP and strikeout rate. Some of that likely has to do with the move from neutral Miller Park to pitcher-friendly Tropicana field, but Morton has also been dominant on the road this year.
He finds himself at home in this matchup against Baltimore, an offense to pick on this year. The Orioles are toward the bottom of the chart in wRC+, and are a true bottom-five team in wOBA. They also strike out about 23% of the time against right-handed pitching. Morton’s main pitch is his fastball, which he throws 48% of the time. Baltimore is 26th against fastballs according to Fangraphs, and is one of only seven teams to have a negative weighted runs per 100 pitches mark against the pitch.
4. Matthew Boyd, $10,100, DET at CHWBoyd went through a major rut in June that saw him allow three or more earned runs in all five of his starts, including 10 homers. However, there is reason to believe that a lot of that was the result of bad luck. Here’s how his ERA compares to his xFIP in all five starts:
June 2 at ATL: ERA – 5.40, xFIP – 0.77
June 7 vs. MIN: ERA – 3.86, xFIP – 4.25
June 13 at KC: ERA – 9.00, xFIP – 2.17
June 21 at CLE: ERA – 7.50, xFIP – 4.79
June 26 vs. TEX: ERA – 5.14, xFIP – 3.26
There is a lot of reason to believe that Boyd can get on track going forward.
The matchup should certainly help him to do that, as the White Sox strike out over 25% of the time against lefties. They are middle of the pack in wRC+, but are bottom six in ISO against left-handed pitching. Home runs have been the weak spot for Boyd, so facing a team with little power should help him (he is also due for some regression in terms of HR/FB rate).
Chicago is also another one of those negative weighted runs per 100 fastball teams. Boyd throws his fastball roughly 50% of the time.
5. David Price, $9,300, BOS at TORPrice continues to have a fantastic season, having given up more than three earned runs in just one appearance since April 7. He is also regaining form in terms of strikeouts. After striking out 31.6% of batters in April, Price’s K-rate dropped under 24% in May. For June it was back up to 27.1%, indicating to me that he is finally over some of the injury issues that plagued him earlier this year.
Toronto is a team worth targeting when it comes to pitcher selection. They are bottom 10 in baseball in wRC+ against left-handed pitching and strike out over 24% of the time. Price has faced the Blue Jays one other time this year and he allowed no earned runs over five innings while striking out four in his first start off an injury that didn’t allow him to pitch for 18 days.
Now fully healthy and in a groove, Price is someone worth deploying every five days until he proves otherwise.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is amicsta) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.