MLB-Value-Targets

The day after Memorial Day, rainy weather is sweeping the East Coast. It is unclear if this will cause any games to be postponed, but it’s something to keep an eye on. Games being played in New York, Boston and Philadelphia could all end up being risky targets if the weather outlook doesn’t improve.

EDITOR’S NOTE: Tonight’s game between the White Sox and Royals has been removed from the main slate due to scheduling issues.

PITCHER

Stud

Rich Hill, LAD vs. NYM, $10,800 — The Mets have the lowest projected team total on the slate, making Hill one of the safer targets tonight. Finally healthy after missing the start of the season, he is working into a groove. In his last two starts, Hill allowed a total of one run and averaged 28.8 DKFP. The Mets 26.8% strikeout rate against lefties is the highest in the National League.

Other Options — Frankie Montas ($11,300), David Price ($9,400)

Value

Trevor Richards, MIA vs. SF, $8,200 — This is more about matchup than anything. Richards is little more than a replacement level pitcher although he does strike out close to a hitter per inning. He’s at home, in a pitcher’s ballpark and draws a great matchup against the Giants. San Francisco has the second-lowest scoring offense in the National League.

Other Options — Max Fried ($8,100), Marco Gonzales ($6,900)


CATCHER

Stud

J.T. Realmuto, PHI vs. STL, $4,800 — The Phillies returning home after a road trip, and Realmuto faired pretty well away from Philadelphia. He’s scored double-digit DKFP in five of his last seven games and faces a washed-up version of Adam Wainright ($6,700). Waino has scored under 7 DKFP in three of last four starts, making the Phillies a good offense to target if the weather cooperates.

Other Options — Omar Narvaez ($4,400)

Value

Blake Swihart, ARI at COL, $3,800 — He is my favorite catcher player on the slate. With David Peralta on the IR, Swihart has become an everyday player in the outfield. He still has catcher eligibility and gets to play in Coors Field against Antonio Senzatela ($5,600), who allows a .425 wOBA to left-handed batters.

EDITOR’S NOTE: Swihart is not in the starting lineup for tonight’s game.

Other Options — Chris Iannetta ($4,000)


FIRST BASE

Cody Bellinger, LAD vs. NYM, $5,800 — Why fight it? Bellinger does everything and is quickly ascending into the conversation as the best player in baseball. He homered off Jacob deGrom last night and has become nearly impossible to get out consistently. Bellinger has an extra-base hit in four straight games.

Other Options — Daniel Vogelbach ($5,200), Daniel Murphy ($4,500)

Value

Matt Olson, OAK vs. LAA, $4,000 — Typically, hamate injuries are considered a long-term issue that sucks hitters of their power. When Olson made a quick return from a broken hamate bone, the expectation was that it would take a while for him to find his power stroke. Instead, he has five homers in his first 21 games, a pace that would have him hitting a career-best number of homers if healthy.

Other Options — Paul Goldschmidt ($4,100), Niko Goodrum ($3,500)


SECOND BASE

Stud

Ketel Marte, ARI at COL, $5,800 — Despite a large slate, we are lacking in expensive second base options. I think Marte is a bit too expensive, but he’s averaging 20 DKFP in his last four games and is playing in Coors Field. As mentioned earlier, Senzatela allows a .425 wOBA to left-handed batters.

Other Options — Ryan McMahon ($4,400)

Value

Kike Hernandez, LAD vs. NYM, $3,400 — Cheap Kike against a lefty is always a great value play for me. Overall, his numbers don’t look great, but it’s because the Dodgers are letting him play more against right-handed pitchers, which is a struggle for him. Against southpaws, Hernandez has a 149 wRC+.

Other Options — Hanser Alberto ($3,500), Chris Taylor ($3,200)


THIRD BASE

Stud

Nolan Arenado, COL vs. ARI, $5,900 — I prefer Arenado against left-handed pitching, but he’s too hot to ignore. Arenado has four homers in his last four games and six straight games with at least 10 DKFP. His last game with less than two hits was over a week ago.

Other Options — Eduardo Escobar ($5,700)

Value

Matt Carpenter, STL at PHI, $4,100 — The Cardinals moved Carpenter down in the lineup and it seems to have woken up his bat. He’s always been known as a slow starter, but he always has his numbers by the end of the season. Carpenter has reached base in 10 consecutive starts and is averaging 14.25 DKFP in his last four games.

Other Options — Marwin Gonzalez ($3,700), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($3,700)


SHORTSTOP

Stud

Eduardo Escobar, ARI at COL, $5,700 — Escobar is another high left-handed bat who can be rostered to get exposure against Senzatela. He has at least nine DKFP in six straight games and is averaging 14.12 DKFP over that span. As per usual, the Coors Field game is a great one to get exposure to with a slate high run total of 12.

Other Options — Trevor Story ($5,500), Francisco Lindor ($4,600)

Value

Carlos Correa, HOU vs. CHC, $4,300 — Picking are slim for cheap shortstops tonight. Most of the decent options are expensive, but Correa is much cheaper than normal. After a great start to the season, Jon Lester ($7,500) has combined to allow 12 runs in his last two starts. He is still a big name pitcher and Houston hitters could go overlooked with a Coors Field game on the slate.

EDITOR’S NOTE: Correa is not in the starting lineup for tonight’s game.

Other Options — Jonathan Villar ($4,300)


OUTFIELD

Stud

J.D. Martinez, BOS vs. CLE, $5,400 — Coming off a two-homer game, this is a good time to target Martinez. His power numbers have dipped a bit this season, but yesterday’s game could be a sign that he’s getting back on track. Zach Plesac ($4,500) is making his major league debut for the Indians and a first career start at Fenway Park could be a recipe for a disaster if he gets nervous.

Other Options — Mookie Betts ($5,600), Adam Jones ($5,500)

Value

David Dahl, COL vs. ARI, $4,200 — This is a curiously low salary for Dahl. He’s playing at Coors Field, hitting in the middle of the Rockies’ offense, which has the team total on the slate. It’s not as if he’s struggling recently. Dahl has reached base in 10 straight games and is averaging 10.6 DKFP in his last five games, which include a homer yesterday.

Other Options — Bryce Harper ($4,300), Ian Desmond ($4,100)


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is gehrenberg) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.