Fantasy Baseball Cheat Sheet: MLB Slate Breakdown for September 28

Friday features a huge a 13-game slate of fantasy baseball starting at 7:05 p.m ET. As you prepare, make sure to be following @DKLive for the latest MLB news updates and lineup information. As always, you can reach me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Top Pitcher

HOU vs. BAL – Gerrit Cole – $12,800 – Cole and the Astros are big favorites tonight as they take on the Orioles. This will be the first time Cole has taken on this club that enters with a .315 wOBA, .152 ISO and a 23 K% over the last two weeks. Tonight will act as Cole’s final tune-up of the regular season, as he sports a .288 wOBA in the month of September with a 2.86 FIP and a K% of 37. As you’d imagine, the Orioles have just a 3.2 projected run total which is the second-lowest on this slate. That honor belongs to the Giants, who opened with a 3.1 run total against Hyun-Jin Ryu ($11,100). Nonetheless, Cole is very much in play tonight.

Highest Totals

WAS vs. COL – 10.5 runs – As you’d expect, Coors Field owns our highest projected total with the Rockies opening with a 6.1 team total. They’ll be facing Joe Ross ($6,000), who is making his third start of the season. He’s pitched just 11 innings this season, so taking a look back at 2017, we see a pitcher that was quite ineffective at the major league level. His numbers on the road are what really stuck out, as he amassed a .411 wOBA with a 6.21 FIP. I think the Rockies will be just fine in this spot despite not being as productive against righties as they are lefties.

Weather Concerns

No weather concerns!

Park Factors

Coors Field – WAS vs. COL It’s Coors Field. Everything is favored here. It’s Sept. 28, you know this already.

Fenway Park – NYY vs. BOS Fenway park checks in as our second-most favored ballpark tonight as they wrap up the regular season with the Yankees. All offensive categories except home runs are favored here.

Citi Field – MIA vs. NYM Citi Field ranks as our worst offensive ballpark on the slate as they host the Braves tonight. As you’d expect, no offensive categories are favored.

Tropicana Field – TOR vs. TB – The Blue Jays visit the Trop to end their 2018 season, which is also tonight’s second-worst ballpark. No offensive categories are favored here.

Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Eric Lauer.847.287J.A. Happ.471.163
David Hess.840.260Kyle Freeland.506.178
Lucas Gioltio.822.265Gerrit Cole.517.160

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Martin Perez.963.348Patrick Corbin.585.213
David Hess.842.281Mike Foltynewicz.589.211
Jamie Barria.842.278Mike Clevinger.591.213

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

HitterOpposing SPABFP/AB
Steve PearceJ.A. Happ293.5
Mike TroutMike Fiers173
Kike HernandezMadison Bumgarner262.9

(Fantasy Points Per At Bat)*

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Mike Foltynewicz – ATL vs. PHI – $9,000 – Nine thousand dollars just feels too cheap for Folty, as he faces the Phillies for the sixth (!) time this season. As you’d imagine, he’s performed very well against this club, averaging 21 DKFP through 30.1 innings, allowing eight runs (seven earned) on 20 hits with a K/9 of 9.2. His last start also came against the Phillies, where he lasted 7.1 innings, allowing two runs on two hits and striking out five for 23.5 DKFP. The Phillies have completely fallen off the map to end the season as evidenced by their .297 wOBA, .154 ISO and 24.5 K% over the last two weeks.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Giancarlo Stanton – NYY vs. BOS – $4,700 – I really dig this spot for Stanton, who matches up against Brian Johnson ($8,100) of the Red Sox. Stanton has mashed lefties all season long and has especially done so on the road. In those matchups, he sports a .532 wOBA with a .387 ISO and a 59% hard-hit rate. Johnson is no stranger to giving up home runs at Fenway Park either, as he’s allowed 10 of his 15 here.

Save Big by Drafting…

Jay Bruce- NYM vs. MIA – $3,700 – When you catch Bruce on one of his hot streaks, it truly feels like you can’t get anything by him. Which is funny because when he’s not hitting the ball well, everything gets by him. Nonetheless, he’s been hitting very well of late, posting a .376 wOBA with a .253 ISO in the month of September. He’ll matchup against Jose Urena ($7,700), who has struggled against lefties on the road to the tune of a .330 wOBA with a 4.53 FIP.

Stack Em Up

HOU vs. BAL (David Hess) – I’m literally just copying this from yesterday’s article and pasting it again. Didn’t like Hess yesterday and don’t like him today. When you get him at Camden Yards and you have a pitcher who owns a .348 wOBA in that park with a 6.31 FIP with eight of his 21 home runs allowed on the year. He throws a ton of pitches and rarely goes deep into games, having seen at least the sixth inning in just three of his last 10 starts. He’s yet to face the Astros this season but I imagine this won’t exactly go well for Hess, who is averaging just 10.8 DKFP over his last 10 starts.

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