Fantasy Baseball Cheat Sheet: MLB Slate Breakdown for September 17

Monday features a 12-game slate of fantasy baseball starting at 7:05 p.m ET. As you prepare, make sure to be following @DKLive for the latest MLB news updates and lineup information. As always, you can reach me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Top Pitcher

MIL vs. CIN – Wade Miley ($7,200) – The Brewers opened as the biggest favorites for tonight as they take on the Reds at Miller Park. This will mark the third start for Miley against the Reds, whom he’s thrown 13.1 innings against, allowing two runs on eight hits while striking out 10 for a DKFP average of 21.4. I’m not huge on Miley personally, as his strikeout upside if minimal at best. With just a 5.9 K/9, you’re essentially hoping for some clean innings to reach value and that’s a lot to ask for. Sure, his salary is friendly, but I just don’t see Miley reaching 3x value on a $7,200 salary. For what it’s worth, the Brewers opened with a -185 line and have since dropped to -161, so take that into account as well. Nonetheless, the Brewers are still favored in this matchup, although the gap is getting smaller as the day progresses it seems.

Highest Totals

TB vs. TEX – 10.5 runs – The only game projected in double digits, the Rays have a massive 5.7 run projection against Adrian Sampson ($5,600). He’s only made two appearances this season, including one start against the Angels, tossing five innings of one-run ball. Sampson won’t overpower hitters at the plate, but he had a good run at Triple-A this season despite just a K/9 of 6. I have to admit, I’m a bit perplexed about the huge total for the Rays. Globe Life Park certainly helps, but a near 6.0-run projection seems a bit high to me. If anything, the Blue Jays would be a team to consider facing Andrew Cashner ($5,100). As of late this morning, the Blue Jays team total had not been released, so I’m curious to see what that is once it comes out.

Weather Concerns

KC @ PIT (PNC Park) – This game will very likely start in a delay, as thunderstorms will be in the area around first pitch. All throughout the night they’ll be dealing with a chance of rain so I would keep an eye on this one.

TOR @ BAL (Camden Yards) – Rain is in the forecast all night long, so this could be a tricky game to fit in. This will need another check in later tonight, so make sure to do so.

Park Factors

Chase Field – CHC vs. ARI The Cubs head to Arizona for a series against the Diamondbacks at tonight’s most favorable ballpark for hitters. All offensive categories are favored here.

Globe Life Park – TB vs. TEX The Rays travel to our second-most favorable ballpark on the slate as they head to Texas. Like Chase Field, all offensive categories are favored here.

Dodger Stadium – COL vs. LAD Dodger Stadium is our worst offensive ballpark for hitters tonight as they host the Rockies. Nothing here favors hitters.

Minute Maid Park – SEA vs. HOU Minute Maid Park is our second-worst offensive ballpark as they host the Mariners. AS you’d imagine, no offensive categories are favored here either.

Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHBOPSAVGBest vs. LHBOPSAVG
Anthony DeSclafani.901.277Andrew Suarez.547.222
Andrew Cashner.852.278Wade Miley.608.222
Bryan Mitchell.810.240Mike Foltynewicz.618.186

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHBOPSAVGBest vs. RHBOPSAVG
Bryan Mitchell.955.338Miles Mikolas.515.199
Trevor Richards.863.284Zack Wheeler.555.214
Andrew Cashner.860.304Patrick Corbin.574.210

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

HitterOpposing SPABFP/AB*
Nolan ArenadoHyun-Jin Ryu164.5
Todd FrazierJake Arrieta202.3
Marwin GonzalezMike Leake112.18

(Fantasy Points Per At Bat)*

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Patrick Corbin – ARI vs. CHC – $11,900 – I knew the Cubs weren’t hitting well as of late, I just didn’t know it was THIS bad. I was downright shocked to see that over the last two weeks, the Cubs have managed only a .260 wOBA (29th) with a .086 ISO (30th) and 25.3 K% (8th). My goodness, that’s atrocious. Now that get a matchup against Corbin? Yeah, good luck. Corbin has been fantastic in the second half of the season and has a .255 wOBA with a 1.60 (!) FIP and a 32.5 K%. He’s certainly pricey, but what a great spot for him tonight, he’ll be anchoring my lineups.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Travis Shaw – MIL vs. CIN – $4,700 – Eligible at both second and third base, you should have no troubles getting Shaw into your lineup. He’ll take on Anthony DeSclafani ($5,800), who against lefties sports a .377 wOBA with a 6.30 FIP, a 39% hard-hit rate and 14 of his 20 home runs allowed on the year. This is the exact time of matchup that Shaw crushes in, as against righties at home he owns an impressive .380 wOBA with a .307 ISO with 14 of his 29 home runs.

Jay Bruce – NYM vs. PIT – $4,100 – Bruce has been raking since returning from injury, posting a .397 wOBA with a .354 ISO in the month of September with five of his nine home runs on the year. Normally, I wouldn’t necessarily target against Jake Arrieta ($7,800) because he’s done so well at keeping the ball in the park. Well, lately, not so much. He’s nearly doubled the number of home runs he’s allowed on the year in half the innings, with nine in 56.2 innings in the second half compared to 10 in 103 innings in the first.

Stack Em Up

HOU vs. SEA (Wade LeBlanc) – – The Astros have had LeBlanc’s ($7,400) number all season long, so I don’t see how tonight is any different. He’s seen this team five times, including three starts, and has allowed 16 runs on 25 hits in just 17.1 innings for an average of 3.8 DKFP.


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