We head into the final weekend of the regular season! With almost all playoff spots clinched, we have to keep an eye out on lineups for the next few days. With teams resting players, it could make or break plays that we may normally not have been on, so use that to your advantage. Let’s get into all the info for tonight and as always, you can reach out on Twitter @SBuchanan24.
Largest FavoriteNote: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
James Paxton, $11,200, NYM (-275) vs. TEX (+235) — Paxton and the Yankees are big favorites against the Rangers, as they begin their final series of the regular season. Paxton recently faced this Rangers team at the beginning of the month and completely dominated, tossing seven innings of shutout baseball with 12 strikeouts and only one hit allowed. With a performance like that, it’s no shock to see him walk away with 42.5 DKFP, his second-highest fantasy output of the year. This matchup sets up as another potential big outing from Paxton, as the Rangers have only as a .308 wOBA, .196 ISO and a 26.3 K%, which is the second-highest in the league. If you have the salary to pay up for him, you should look to do so.
Highest TotalMIL (-167) vs. COL (+148) 13.5 runs — A massive total at Coors Field with the Brewers checking in as big favorites. With a ridiculous 7.5 run total, the Brewers are expected to go to town against Chi Chi Gonzalez ($4,900). To be fair, Gonzalez has been pitching well of late, allowing no more than two earned runs in four straight starts. It’s worth considering that they’ve come against the Dodgers at Dodger Stadium and two home starts against the Cardinals and Padres. This is by far his toughest matchup this month and he could come crashing back down to Earth. Despite pitching better as of late, he still owns a .384 wOBA, a 5.60 xFIP and four of his 10 home runs allowed at Coors Field this season.
Weather ConcernsMIN at KCR – (Kauffman Stadium) – It’s been quite a stretch where we had to be concerned about the weather but we’ll have a dicey situation for the Twins and Royals. It’s looking like a mid-game delay will take place and could end wind up postponing. Keep an eye on this one as the day progresses.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed BattersWorst vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP
Anthony DeSclafani, .385, 4.37
James Paxton, .377, 2.01
Vincent Velasquez, .377, 4.57
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP
Walker Buehler, .253, 4.37
Pablo Lopez, .287, 3.88
Steven Brault, .297, 4.90
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed BattersWorst vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP
Steven Brault, .347, 5.07
Eric Lauer, .341, 4.28
Pablo Lopez, .341, 4.46
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP
Dakota Hudson, .194, 3.99
Walker Buehler, .241, 3.37
Alec Mills, .253, 2.46
Top Hard-Hit%This section will populate with the hitters that have the top hard-hit% over the last seven days. This percentage can help distinguish who is swinging the bat well over the course of the past week. I’ll be updating this daily so we have a consistent flow of names in this section.
Name, Team, Salary, Hard-Hit%
Jake Lamb, ARI, $3000, 90%
Christian Walker, ARI, $4400, 77.8%
Josh Naylor, SDP, $3600, 77.8%
Chad Pinder, OAK, $3200, 76.9%
Trevor Story, COL, $5600, 71.4%
Pitcher to Build AroundJames Paxton, NYY vs. TEX, $11,200 — I won’t even get cute here, Paxton is the play against the Rangers. As I mentioned earlier, the Rangers are downright awful against lefties and have the second-highest K% in the league against them. One note I didn’t mention earlier was how good Paxton has been through the month of September. Entering this game, Paxton has a .168 wOBA and a 3.82 xFIP through 24 2/3 innings.
Heavy Hitter to Pay ForRafael Devers, BOS vs. BAL, $5,500 — After getting the afternoon off yesterday, Devers should draw back into the Red Sox lineup against Asher Wojciechowski ($5,200). Woj’s numbers against lefties are putrid and he brings a .382 wOBA, 6.29 xFIP and 10 of the 17 home runs he’s allowed. Devers has been a monster a Fenway Park against righties as evidenced by his .387 wOBA, .263 ISO and 139 wRC+. He’s someone worth paying up for against this awful Orioles pitching staff.
Save Big by Drafting…Phillip Ervin, CIN vs. PIT, $3,200 — Ervin is dirt cheap for someone who’ll likely be high in the order against the lefty Steven Brault ($4,300). On the season, Ervin boasts a .425 wOBA, .286 ISO and 162 wRC+ against lefties. He finds himself starting all over in the Reds’ lineup but against lefties usually trends in the fifth hole. Regardless, you can’t complain much for someone who will run you for only $3,200 in salary.
Stack Em UpMIN vs. KCR (Eric Skoglund) — I’m never going to quit the Twins going up against a lefty. You’ve heard me harp on this point all season long so why stop now? Skoglund hasn’t pitched much this season but even through eight innings at home has given up nine runs on 13 hits, good for a .449 wOBA and an 8.82 xFIP. We even saw this offense yesterday put up 10 runs despite resting all of their starters. With that type of production, why worry?
Favorite Prop Bet
James Paxton OVER 6.5 strikeouts (-105)What? I expected this to be at least 7.5 so to see only 6.5, I’m all for it. I’ve mentioned it numerous times but the Rangers sport one of the highest K% in the league against lefties. What are you waiting for?
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