Sonny Gray

Wednesday brings a rare, massive 14-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET. Today is usually reserved for more modest six or seven games, so it is quite a surprise. Let’s dive into all the info for this slate and as always, you can reach me on Twitter @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Largest Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Ross Stripling, $7,300, LAD (-182) vs. BAL (+160) – Stripling is set to open this game and then give way to Dustin May ($8,500), who is expected to handle the bulk of the innings. The Dodgers will continue their series against the Orioles, who they easily handled last night by a score of 7-3. Stripling has only pitched in the majors for a total of 25 2/3 innings but on the road has a .301 wOBA with a 4.48 xFIP. While he’s not expensive, his lack of strikeout upside really limits his ceiling when he takes the mound, making me looking elsewhere. On a slate that features 14 games, it feels a bit unnecessary to roll with him, even against the Orioles. It also doesn’t help that we don’t know how far the Dodgers are looking to have him go.

Highest Total

STL (-150) vs. COL (+130) 13.5 runs – The same huge total from last night carries over to today as the Cardinals are once again favored with a 7.5 team total. The reason? Good ol’ Antonio Senzatela ($4,200) will be taking the hill for the Rockies. At home, he sports a .366 wOBA with a 5.10 xFIP and seven of the 15 home runs he’s allowed. He’s faced the Cardinals once already, in the comfy cozy confines of Busch Stadium and was shelled for six runs on five hits through only 1 2/3 innings. If they can handle him at Busch Stadium, imagine the damage they can do at Coors Field? But, then again, Chi Chi Gonzalez just pitched six innings allowing only one run against them, so maybe anything is truly possible.

Weather Concerns

ATL at PHI (Citizens Bank Park) – This has a good chance of starting in a delay but once it clears, should be smooth sailing the rest of the way.

LAD at BAL (Camden Yards) – Same scenario at Camden Yards. This game could start in a delay but it shouldn’t last very long and baseball will be played soon after.

ARI at NYM (Citi Field) – This one could end up a bit dicey or nothing at all. We’ll have to watch this one as we get closer to first pitch but storms could be an issue here.

Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP
Antonio Senzatela, .416, 5.79
Glenn Sparkman, .385, 6.23
Zach Eflin, .360, 5.46

Best vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP
John Means, .225, 4.87
Dallas Keuchel, .234, 2.21
Martin Perez, .250, 3.97

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP
Dario Agrazal, .406, 6.28
Jose Urquidy, .377, 5.12
Ariel Jurado, .371, 4.32

Best vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP
Dustin May, .200, 4.11
Chris Paddack, .256, 3.73
Sonny Gray, .260, 3.73

Top Hard-Hit%

This section will populate with the hitters that have the top hard-hit% over the last seven days. This percentage can help distinguish who is swinging the bat well over the course of the past week. I’ll be updating this daily so we have a consistent flow of names in this section.

Name, Team, Salary, Hard-Hit%
Eugenio Suarez, CIN, $4900, 83.3%
Stephen Vogt, SF, $3900, 83.3%
Josh Donaldson, ATL, $5300, $77.8%
Wil Myers, SDP, $4300, 77.8%
Ty France, SDP, $3300, 77.8%

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Sonny Gray, CIN vs. SEA, $10,600 – For someone that hasn’t given up more than two runs since July 29, $10,600 doesn’t feel like a high salary to pay for Gray. He’ll take on a Mariners team that has the fifth-highest K% in the league against righties at 25.3% to go with a .305 wOBA and a .176 ISO. What I really like is how good Gray has been on the road, posting a .262 wOBA with a 4.03 xFIP and just seven of the 15 home runs he’s allowed. Against a team that is struggling to score runs, Gray should be a fine option at T-Mobile Park.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Rafael Devers, BOS vs. TOR, $5,100 – Trent Thornton ($7,100) is one of my favorite pitchers to target against with left-handed bats so who better than Devers on this slate? On the season, Thornton is allowed a .387 wOBA with a 4.54 xFIP and seven of the 23 home runs he’s allowed. On the road against righties, Devers has a .387 wOBA, a .262 ISO and eight of his 29 home runs. While he’s one of the more expensive options on this slate, he should be worth the price of admission.

Save Big by Drafting…

Jean Segura, PHI vs. ATL, $3,900 – Segura draws a matchup against Dallas Keuchel ($9,500) at Citizens Bank Park tonight. Keuchel has been so much worse on the road, allowing a .423 wOBA with a 5.01 xFIP with eight of the 12 home runs he’s allowed. It’s no secret that Segura has been a beast against lefties, especially at home with his .403 wOBA, .310 ISO and 149 wRC+. Getting him likely in the leadoff spot makes him an immense value and one that shouldn’t be ignored.

Stack Em Up

WAS vs. MIN (Martin Perez) – I can’t see this ending well with Perez, who’ll be facing one of the better teams in the league against left-handed pitching. Coming into this game they have a .341 wOBA, .180 ISO and 106 wRC+, all of which rank amongst the top in the league. Then, of course, we have Perez ($7,600), who has been so bad in the second half, posting a .375 wOBA and 5.22 xFIP since then. With the Nationals being able to implement a DH as well, this should be a long (short) night for Perez.

Favorite Prop Bet

Phillies/Dodgers Moneyline parlay +241

This one caught my eye as I like the Phillies to win this as underdogs and pairing them with a Dodgers team that should easily handle the Orioles. Combining the two generates +241 odds, which is quite the return overall.

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