Detroit Tigers v Kansas City Royals

Tuesday is always one of the biggest slates of the week as 28 of the 30 teams will be in action. Only the Yankees and Tigers will be off this slate as they start at 6:40 p.m. ET. Without any weather concerns tonight, we have no issues building our lineups. Let’s get to all the information and as always, you can reach me on Twitter @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Largest Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Walker Buehler, $12,300, LAD (-315) at BAL (+265) — The Dodgers begin an interleague series against the Orioles at Camden Yards for three games. Buehler will take the hill in his first start at Camden Yards. Buehler has been “worse” on the road, but those starts come out to a .307 wOBA, a 3.77 xFIP and eight of the 18 home runs he’s allowed. Offensively, the Orioles have averaged three runs per game over their past five against the Rangers and Rays.

Even better, the Dodgers will be facing Ty Blach ($5,200), whom they saw before in a Giants uniform. In that start, they tagged him for seven runs on seven hits through 3 1/3 innings. Now they’ll be able to face him in a much smaller ballpark while he continues to struggle on the mound. On any other team. Blach wouldn’t even sniff a starter’s role, but this is the Orioles we’re talking about. On the year, Blach has a 6.69 xFIP with a 13.1 BB% through 24 2/3 innings.

Highest Total

STL (-150) at COL (+132) 13.5 runs — A huge total at Coors Field as the Cardinals visit for a three-game series. The Cardinals are not only favored by a big amount but also carry a 7.5 team total against Chi Chi Gonzalez ($4,000). He’s made only three starts at Coors this season and has allowed 12 runs on 17 hits through just 9 2/3 innings, which averages out to -1.4 DKFP. In his most recent home start against the Pirates, he made it through only 2/3 of an inning, allowing seven runs. Lefties give him the most trouble, as he has a 7.51 xFIP against them. If you’re looking to stack the Cards, I would try to get those lefties in, especially Kolten Wong ($4,800), who is averaging 10 DKFP over his past 10 games.

Weather Concerns

No weather concerns!

Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP, Best vs. LHB, wOBA, xFIP
Chi Chi Gonzalez, .411, 7.51, Max Fried, .260, 2.88
Mitch Keller, .406, 4.15, Jose Quintana, .262, 3.23
Elieser Hernandez, .404, 6.01, Chase Anderson, .262, 5.29

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP, Best vs. RHB, wOBA, xFIP
Jose Suarez, .419, 5.61, Ryan Yarbrough, .247, 3.93
Ty Blach, .416, 6.15, Zac Gallen, .271, 4.50
Mitch Keller, .400, 3.74, Lance Lynn, .275, 2.98

Top Hard-Hit%

This section will populate with the hitters that have the top hard-hit% over the past seven days. This percentage can help distinguish who is swinging the bat well over the course of the past week. I’ll be updating this daily so we have a consistent flow of names in this section.

Name, Team, Salary, Hard-Hit%
Tyler Flowers, ATL, $3900, 100%
Eugenio Suarez, CIN, $4600, 81.8%
Joc Pederson, LAD, $5500, 77.8%
Will Myers, SDP, $4100, 77.8%
Austin Nola, SEA, $3600, 70%

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Jakob Junis, KC at CWS, $8,600 — If there is one thing we can rely upon with Junis, it’s that he goes deep into games. He’s made it into at least the sixth inning in nine of his past 10 games while striking out at least six in five of them. Now he faces a White Sox team that sports a 25.4 K%, which is the third-highest in the league against righties. Overall they have a .312 wOBA and a .156 ISO against righties, which isn’t impressive. Finally, in two starts against this team, Junis has averaged 26.1 DKFP through 12 2/3 innings, allowing four runs on 11 hits while striking out 16.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Ozzie Albies, ATL at PHI, $4,900 — Jason Vargas ($7,800) has been pitching like the Vargas we’ve come to know and love over the years. Tonight he’ll be taking on the Braves and, more specifically, Albies, who has averaged 11.8 DKFP over his past 10 games. Albies’ numbers are much better against lefties as he sports a .445 wOBA with a .296 ISO and a 48.7% hard-hit rate. As for Vargas, he wrapped up the month of August with a .343 wOBA and a 6.23 xFIP.

Save Big by Drafting…

Dee Gordon, SEA vs. CIN, $3,400 — Gordon quietly has put together a good string of games, averaging 11.2 DKFP over his past five games. Now he has a matchup against the self-imploding Trevor Bauer ($9,100), who is averaging just 5.1 DKFP over his past five starts. Against lefties, Bauer has a .355 wOBA and a 5.23 xFIP. With almost no ownership projected for Gordon, he’ll fly under the radar and could be a decent fantasy play on this slate.

Stack Em Up

ATL at PHI (Jason Vargas) — I have zero faith in Vargas getting through this start. As I mentioned, I’m a fan of Albies, and the same can be said about the rest of the bats in this lineup. Since joining the Phillies, Vargas has a .345 wOBA and a 5.67 xFIP at Citizens Bank Park. Not to mention, his only appearances against the Braves resulted in him in giving up four runs on two hit through just a 1/3 of an inning.

Favorite Prop Bet

Ryan Yarbrough OVER 4.5 strikeouts (-120)

This total feels just a bit too low against a team that sports the second-highest K% in the league against lefties. At 26.7%, the Rangers trail only the Tigers for the highest honors. While Yarbrough isn’t the biggest strikeout pitcher in the league with a 21.7 K%, he should be able to obtain more than the 4.5 total. Over his past 10 starts, he’s exceed this total in seven of them, which further makes me wonder why it’s set at only 4.5.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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