What more perfect a way to kick off the weekend than with a massive 15-game slate? Every team is on this slate, and the weather shouldn’t be disrupting any of these games. Let’s get into all the information you’ll need for tonight and as always, you can reach me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Largest FavoriteNote: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
German Marquez, $9,500, COL (-278) vs. TOR (+235) — With everyone focused on the Raptors Game 1 victory over the Warriors, no one is going to care the Blue Jays likely will lose this game to the Rockies! Marquez hasn’t shown the same dominance at home as he has on the road, and the numbers show it. To be fair, his 3.53 xFIP does show he could be a bit unlucky despite the inflated .350 wOBA. Even still, it’s hard to think he’s the top pitcher on this slate with the struggles he’s shown at home.
It could have to do with the Blue Jays’ poor offense, as they’re averaging only 3.8 runs on the road, which is the third lowest in the league. It also doesn’t hurt that Edwin Jackson ($5,200) will be opposing him on the mound, as the likelihood the Rockies are able to get to him offensively is high. If you want to trust Marquez at home, it’s completely understandable, but on a huge slate like tonight, feels a bit unnecessary. I’d reserve him for tournaments only.
Highest TotalTOR (+235) at COL (-278) 11.5 runs — Oh, right. This game also features the highest total of the night. The biggest reason for that is because the Rockies sport a 6.5 team total against Jackson. In a shock to no one, Jackson has looked like garbage since joining the Jays, allowing 14 runs on 20 hits through 14 innings. Oh, did I mention he already has given up five home runs? At home against righties, the Rockies have the second-highest wOBA and ISO in the league at .365 and .225, respectively. With how poorly Jackson has been out of the gate, it’s hard to think he’ll straighten out in the best hitting environment in the league. The Blue Jays’ bullpen has been having some issues as of late, as well, with a .5.03 xFIP and a massive 2.9 HR/9 over the past week. With all this in mind, it’s not hard to see why the Rockies’ team total is as high as it is.
Weather ConcernsNo weather concerns!
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
|Worst vs. LHB||wOBA||xFIP||Best vs. LHB||wOBA||xFIP|
|Miles Mikolas||.401||5.18||Joey Lucchesi||.202||2.18|
|Yu Darvish||.384||4.24||Ariel Jurado||.213||4.57|
|Tyler Mahle||.375||4.88||Andrew Cashner||.223||4.47|
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
|Worst vs. RHB||wOBA||xFIP||Best vs. RHB||wOBA||xFIP|
|Mike Foltynewicz||.418||5.09||Kenta Maeda||.224||3.71|
|Drew Pomeranz||.418||5.01||Dylan Covey||.254||5.78|
|Chris Archer||.394||6.05||Jake Arrieta||.262||3.21|
Top Hard-Hit%This section will populate with the hitters that have the top hard-hit% over the past seven days. This percentage can help distinguish who is swinging the bat well over the course of the past week. I’ll be updating this daily so we have a consistent flow of names in this section.
Pitcher to Build AroundKenta Maeda, LAD vs. PHI, $10,300 — Maeda has been downright nasty at home and tonight gets a matchup against the Phillies. Through 26 innings at Dodger Stadium, he’s allowed a .218 wOBA with a 3.78 xFIP and three of his eight home runs allowed. The Phillies aren’t a very strong offensive team on the road and have just a .314 wOBA with a .154 ISO. With good strikeout potential in this game thanks to the Phillies’ 23.1 K%, I think this is a great spot to use Maeda.
Heavy Hitter to Pay ForJuan Soto, WAS at CIN, $5,600 — The Nationals’ lefties are in a great spot against Tyler Mahle ($6,200), who always has struggled in those matchups. Thus far against lefties, Mahle has allowed a .375 wOBA with a 4.88 xFIP and six of his 10 home runs on the year. When it comes to Soto, he’s been mashing righties on the road with a .400 wOBA and a .227 ISO. Not to mention, this game will be taking place at Great American Ball Park, which is one of the best hitters parks in the league.
Save Big by Drafting…Hanser Alberto, BAL vs. SF, $3,900 — Alberto most likely wasn’t on your radar, but he’s been hitting lefties well. At home against lefties, he’s posted a .475 wOBA, a .270 ISO and two of his three home runs. What makes this all the more exciting is he’s facing Drew Pomeranz ($6,000), who has been completely atrocious, even after moving into one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in the league. He won’t be there today and brings with him a .401 wOBA and a 4.97 xFIP on the road.
Stack Em UpMIL at PIT (Chris Archer) — Remember when the Pirates gave up Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows for Archer? Good times.
Anyways, the Brewers should be in a huge spot against Archer, who has struggled this season. They’re one of the best hitting clubs against righties, hitting to a .342 wOBA and a .205 ISO when facing them. At home, Archer sports a .340 wOBA with a 5.80 xFIP and five of his eight home runs allowed. Let’s go, baby, it’s a Brewers night!
Favorite Prop Bet
Milwaukee Brewers OVER 4.5 runs (-121)Did you hear me? Archer stinks.
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