Nine games are set for Wednesday night as the price for pitching comes down a bit from some of the more recent slates. While we only have one pitcher over $10,000, five of them have a salary between $9,000-$9,900. Let’s jump into all the information for tonight and as always, you can reach me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Largest FavoriteNote: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Blake Snell, $11,300, TB (-230) vs. TOR (+195) — This is a VERY strong spot for Snell, pitching at home against the Blue Jays. They’re one of the worst teams in the league against lefties and sport a .282 wOBA, a .145 ISO and a 25.6 K% in these matchups. Not to mention, Snell has pitched some of his best baseball this season at home, with a .255 wOBA and a 2.55 xFIP. I imagine this is going to be a popular play and rightfully so. Snell has scored no fewer than 22.8 DKFP and allowed no more than two runs over his past four starts. This includes a game against the Diamondbacks, who are one of the best offenses in the league against lefties. I feel really strong about this start and will have a high amount of exposure here.
Highest TotalARI (-129) at COL (+114) 11 runs — Coors Field was fairly disappointing last night, with eight total runs scored and only two for the Rockies. I think we have a good shot of making up for last night with Robbie Ray ($8,200) and Jeff Hoffman ($6,300) taking the hill. The D-Backs are the favorites here and have an implied team total of 5.5 runs. It feels completely obtainable against Hoffman, who has allowed nine runs on 13 hits through 10 innings against the Orioles and Nationals. You have to go back to 2017 to see what a full season for Hoffman looks like — and it isn’t pretty. During that season, Hoffman allowed a .400 wOBA and a 5.30 xFIP to righties. At Coors Field, it was an overall .400 wOBA and a 5.41 xFIP. Taking some of these D-Backs would be ideal.
I wouldn’t be worried about taking Rockies bats, either. Sure, Ray has some of the highest K upside in the league, but he hasn’t completed six innings in six straight starts. He throws a ton of pitches, and the D-Backs’ bullpen is far from locking games down once it enters. Right-handed bats on the road have tagged Ray for a .324 wOBA with 4.91 xFIP.
Weather ConcernsSTL at PHI (Citizens Bank Park) — They were able to get this game in yesterday, but today brings yet another threat of rain. As of this morning, this game has a legitimate chance of seeing a postponement, mainly due to field conditions. Keep an eye on this one for sure.
DET at BAL (Camden Yards) — Looks like this game could start in a delay but should play once that ends. Not overly threatening but worth checking before lineups lock.
ARI at COL (Coors Field) — Rain will move in after the game has started but doesn’t look like it’s enough to stop play. Even if you’re not looking to target this game, make sure to be in tune with what’s going on here for ownership purposes.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
|Worst vs. LHB||wOBA||xFIP||Best vs. LHB||wOBA||xFIP|
|Aaron Nola||.421||4.65||Madison Bumgarner||.217||2.47|
|Reynaldo Lopez||.411||6.81||Wade Miley||.225||2.99|
|Trent Thornton||.343||3.61||Robbie Ray||.241||2.82|
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
|Worst vs. RHB||wOBA||xFIP||Best vs. RHB||wOBA||xFIP|
|Ryan Carpenter||.342||4.84||Blake Snell||.259||2.66|
|Madison Bumgarner||.338||4.00||Kyle Hendricks||.266||3.98|
|Noah Syndergaard||.327||3.72||Walker Buehler||.271||3.32|
Top Hard-Hit%This section will populate with the hitters that have the top hard-hit% over the past seven days. This percentage can help distinguish who is swinging the bat well over the course of the past week. I’ll be updating this daily so we have a consistent flow of names in this section.
Pitcher to Build AroundBlake Snell, TB vs. TOR, $11,300 —I think I made it quite clear Snell was my top option earlier in this article. If you haven’t read it already, feel free to scroll back to the top. With that in mind, I’m toying with the idea of pairing him with Pablo Lopez ($6,600). He has some REALLY ugly games under his belt, but one thing that has stayed consistent has been his numbers at home. Through 23 1/3 innings at Marlins Park, Lopez has a .200 wOBA with a 3.21 xFIP. To compare, on the road, Lopez has a .381 wOBA with a 4.48 xFIP. He’ll be facing the Giants, who are decent on the road but nothing special. They continue to struggle to hit for power and in pitcher-friendly Marlins Park, Lopez should continue to do his thing.
Heavy Hitter to Pay ForAlex Gordon, KC at CWS, $4,800 — Unless Reynaldo Lopez ($5,900) is pitching against the Tigers, you should be looking towards hitters against him. Lefties have given him fits throughout his career and that’s continued thus far ins 2019, as he’s been saddled with a .411 wOBA, a 6.81 xFIP and eight of his 14 home runs allowed. Gordon continues to hit well and sports a .378 wOBA with a .257 ISO against righties with eight of his nine home runs.
Save Big by Drafting…Ian Desmond, COL vs. ARI, $3,900 — I’ll continue to scream to the high heavens that you should play Desmond when facing left-handed pitching. When he’s facing them at home, he has a .350 wOBA with a .240 ISO and a 41% hard-hit rate in this matchup. With him hitting a bit lower in the batting order, he’s usually left off stacks of Rockies bats, which makes adding him in a good way to mix it up. As if you needed more confirmation to play him, Desmond is wrapping up the month of May with an overall .403 wOBA and a .238 ISO.
Stack Em UpARI at COL (Jon Hoffman) — I hate to go with the obvious Coors stack, but Hoffman truly has shown nothing to make me think he won’t get rocked again. It’s been only two starts, but we haven’t seen much of any success this time in the majors and he’s facing a dynamic D-Backs lineup. On the road, the D-Backs owns a .336 wOBA with a .202 ISO and average 5.5 runs per game.
Favorite Prop Bet
Kansas City Royals OVER 4.5 runs (+108)Wait, really? Plus money on this bet? Did Lopez get pulled? Does the White Sox’ bullpen no longer own the fourth highest xFIP at 4.71? Hit the over, please.
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