MLB-Cheat-Sheet

Tuesday brings a 13-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET. As has been a theme lately, we have a number of pitchers priced over $10,000 on this slate. Let’s jump into all the information for tonight and as always, you can reach me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

EDITOR’S NOTE: Tonight’s game between the White Sox and Royals has been removed from the main slate due to scheduling issues.

Game Notes

Largest Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Rich Hill, $10,800, LAD (-215) vs. NYM (+185) — I have a personal vendetta against Hill, so I’m not the best person to write him up. Of the handful of times I’ve taken him, he’s left the start with an injury twice, which sends me into fit of rage. Personal anguish aside, he does have a great matchup against the Mets, who has one of the highest K% in the league against lefties. At 26.7%, they rank fourth in the league. Offensively they do pose a bit of a threat with a .338 wOBA and a .212 ISO. The Mets have been scoring a boatload of runs as of late, averaging 6.4 runs over the past five games. Overall, I don’t think this is a great spot for Hill (personal vendetta aside) with how well the Mets have been hitting lately. With the numbers good against the lefties as well, I’ll happily be fading him — again.

Highest Total

ARI (+125) at COL (-143) 12 runs — A massive total for this game at Coors Field with Merrill Kelly ($5,800) and Antonio Senzatela ($5,600) taking the mound. The Rockies are favored in this one and have a total an implied team total of 6.5 runs. Kelly has pitched well at Chase Field but his road numbers have been brutal, as he’s averaging 4.3 DKFP with a .404 wOBA and a 6.63 xFIP through five starts. Righties have put him through the grinder on the road, tagging him with a .435 wOBA and a 7.27 xFIP. The Diamondbacks shouldn’t be written off, either, as they’re averaging 5.6 runs per game on the road. Senzatela looks like he’s been a bit unlucky at home with a .335 wOBA and a 3.85 xFIP. With that in mind, we’ve seen him pitch at Coors last season and he ended with a .384 wOBA and a 4.32 xFIP.

Weather Concerns

STL at PHI (Citizens Bank Park) – A legitimate threat of rain will be in the area throughout the evening. Depending on the direction of these storms will dictate the threat level of this game. Keep an eye on this one.

CLE at BOS (Fenway Park) – This is looking like it will be postponed, so I think it’s safe to cross this game off your list. Of course, it’s worth checking as the day goes on but as of this morning, it’s not looking good.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHBwOBAxFIPBest vs. LHBwOBAxFIP
Antonio Senzatela.4064.78Max Fried.2553.06
Merrill Kelly.3394.80Dylan Bundy.2865.53
Zach Davies.3356.69Marco Gonzales.2875.07

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHBwOBAxFIPBest vs. RHBwOBAxFIP
Adrian Sampson.4025.52Jeff Samardzija.2575.02
Dylan Bundy.3754.37Stephen Strasburg.2593.04
Merrill Kelly.3585.56Frankie Montas.2633.51

Top Hard-Hit%

This section will populate with the hitters that have the top hard-hit% over the past seven days. This percentage can help distinguish who is swinging the bat well over the course of the past week. I’ll be updating this daily so we have a consistent flow of names in this section.

NameTeamSalaryHard-Hit%
Jason CastroMIN$4000100%
Ben GamelMIL$370070%
Javier BaezCHC$500070%
Lourdes Gurriel JrTOR$360070%
David BoteCHC$360070%


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Stephen Strasburg, WAS at ATL, $11,800 — Going with the most expensive pitcher on this slate is the way to go, in my opinion. The matchup is a tough one against the Braves, but we’ve seen some really good starts from Stras this season. Through the month of May, Strasburg has pitched 34 1/3 innings, allowing just 10 runs and a K% of 29.3. The Braves can be a fairly tough team to strike out with a 21.7 K% on the year, but when you look at the majority of these matchups tonight, pitching isn’t exactly a strong presence on this 13-game slate. Frankie Montas ($11,300) is one of the most expensive pitchers on this slate, but he faces an Angels team with the lowest K% in the league against righties at 16.5%. With all things considered, I think Strasburg is the guy.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Max Kepler, MIN vs. MIL, $5,500 — The Twins continue to mash the ball each and every night, and Kepler has been a big reason why. Is the 23.2 DKFP average over his past five games a good indication of that? Tonight he’ll face off against Zach Davies ($6,500), who against lefties allows a .335 wOBA with a 6.69 xFIP and three of his six home runs allowed. As for Kepler, he’s boasting some serious power at Target Field and brings a .370 wOBA and a .319 ISO against righties. He should be well worth paying up for in this matchup.

Save Big by Drafting…

Robinson Chirinos, HOU vs. CHC, $3,500 — It was just over a week ago Chirinos was priced up to $4,600, so getting him at $3,500 is a bargain with a lefty on the mound. In these matchups, Chirinos has a .345 wOBA with a .188 ISO and a 43.5% hard-hit rate. He’ll be facing Jon Lester ($7,500), who hasn’t made it through 4 1/3 innings in two straight starts and has allowed a .319 wOBA with all six of his home runs to righties.

EDITOR’S NOTE: Chirinos is not in the starting lineup for tonight’s game.

Stack Em Up

HOU vs. CHC (Jon Lester) — I think going after Lester will be the way to go on this slate with how well the Astros hit lefties. Getting Chirinos in the mix will be a way to mix up your stack as well. Against lefties, the Astros own a .363 wOBA with a .194 ISO, both of which rank amongst the highest in the league. I mentioned Lester has struggled in back-to-back starts, as he’s allowed 12 runs (nine earned) on 17 hits through just 8 1/3 innings against the Nationals and Phillies.


Favorite Prop Bet

Los Angeles Angels UNDER 3.5 runs (-118)

While this might not be the best game for fantasy purposes for Montas, I do think he’ll be able to handle the Angels. He’s been nothing less than fantastic as of late and pitching at home has been the sweet spot. Through 24 innings, Montas has allowed just a .293 wOBA with a 3.02 xFIP. While the Angels average 4.2 runs per game on the road, it ranks as one of the lowest in the league.


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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