MLB-Cheat-Sheet

Friday features a massive 14-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET. With only one game in danger of being canceled, we have a number of favorable matchups to target against. But wait! We have six pitchers priced over $10,000. Good Lord. Let’s jump into all the information for tonight and as always, you can reach me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.


Game Notes

Largest Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Noah Syndergaard, $10,100 NYM (-265) vs. DET (+225) — This slate features SIX pitchers priced at $10,100 or above. When I first looked over the list, Syndergaard was the pitcher I crossed off my list first. His massive inconsistencies this season makes $10,100 a steep price to pay for him, even against the Tigers. Has Thor been a bit unlucky this season? It sure seems that way. His xFIP sits a 3.72 and his hard contact has been down at 29.4%. For me, I see guys in favorable matchups I’d rather target like paying up for Blake Snell ($11,200) against the Indians or even Jose Berrios ($10,200) against the White Sox. At the end of the day, Syndergaard has a favorable matchup and I expect people will follow and take him. I totally get it and understand the play. Personally, I’m not going that route.

Highest Total

BAL (+145) vs. COL (-162) 12 runs — The Rockies sport a massive 6.5 run total as the face John Means ($6,500) and the putrid Baltimore bullpen. This is such a massive spot for Colorado’s offense when you consider at home against lefties this team has a .366 wOBA with a .237 ISO. If you didn’t connect the dots, Means is a lefty. Get with it.

Anyways, Mean has arguably been one of the Orioles best pitchers but brings with him a .345 wOBA on the road with a 5.51 xFIP and four of his six home runs allowed. I don’t see how on Earth you could consider Means in this spot and the Rockies will be a very popular option tonight. At least, I think they will depending on how you pick your pitchers. Don’t forget, this Orioles bullpen is one of the worst in the league and over the last two weeks have a team 4.70 xFIP with 4.1 BB/9 and a 1.2 HR/9.

Weather Concerns

NYY at KCR (Kaufman Stadium) – Doesn’t look as if this game will play with as I write this Friday morning. Heavy rain will be moving into the area and while the worst of it will be gone around game time, who knows what the condition of the field will be. Just ask the Angels what happened when they were supposed to play the Twins on Wednesday.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHBwOBAxFIPBest vs. LHBwOBAxFIP
Anthony DeSclafani.4215.79Joey Lucchesi.2242.76
Miles Mikolas.3935.14Robbie Ray.2362.65
Reynaldo Lopez.3916.75Wade Miley.2433.40

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHBwOBAxFIPBest vs. RHBwOBAxFIP
Mike Foltynewicz.4555.84Anthony DeSclafani.2373.37
Steven Brault.4536.31Jerad Eickhoff.2573.72
Wade LeBlanc.4506.63Blake Snell.2572.39

Top Hard-Hit%

This section will populate with the hitters that have the top hard-hit% over the last seven days. This percentage can help distinguish who is swinging the bat well over the course of the past week. I’ll be updating this daily so we have a consistent flow of names in this section.

NameTeamSalaryHard-Hit%
Chad WallachMIA$3,10077.8%
Tyler AustinSF$3,70075%
Josh BellPIT$5,50073.7%
Dexter FowlerSTL$3,80072.7%
Ben GamelSEA$3,70071.4%


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Jose Berrios, MIN vs. CWS, $10,200 — This is a REALLY tough slate to write about one pitcher to use tonight. So many options to choose from but I landed on Berrios. The game log hunters (that’s what I call people who make decisions based on game logs) will see back-to-back poor starts from Berrios and likely move on. However, Berrios faces a White Sox team that has the fourth-highest K% in the league against righties and the second highest over the past week. This matchup comes at home for Berrios, who has pitched his best baseball in Minnesota. Through 33 innings, Berrios has a .284 wOBA with a 3.92 xFIP. Neither side of the plate has hit Berrios hard and the White Sox are currently struggling to hit for power. I expect ownership to be really spread out at pitcher tonight so I wouldn’t really worry about that aspect. To be fair, going off name value, Berrios would likely be lower on the totem pole considering who else is pitching.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Austin Meadows, TB vs. CLE, $5,400 — I’m really digging Meadows going against The Biebs, Shane Bieber ($10,400). Yes, he’s coming off his best start of the season and arguably his best in the majors. Let’s also remember it was against the Orioles. The Rays are hitting very well right now and Bieber has struggled against lefties. So far this year, it hasn’t been that bad and his .301 wOBA and 3.59 xFIP proves that. However, Meadows has been crushing righties, especially on the road. In those matchups, he sports a .530 wOBA with a .439 ISO with five of his nine home runs. I have zero issues paying up for Meadows here.

Save Big by Drafting…

Stephen Piscotty, OAK vs. SEA, $3,700 — You’re going to REALLY save in some spots tonight and my guy Piscotty could be one of the best ways to do so. I only roster him against lefties and tonight brings that matchup against Wade LeBlanc ($7,400). When facing lefties, Piscotty sports a .431 wOBA with a .255 ISO and three of his five home runs. LeBlanc hasn’t pitched much this season but has already allowed six home runs to righties with a .450 wOBA and a 6.63 xFIP.

Stack Em Up

STL vs. ATL (Mike Foltynewicz) — The Cardinals wrecked Folty just 10 days ago and I think it’s more than ok to go back to the well. In that start, Folty allowed eight runs on seven hits, including three home runs, through 4 2/3 innings. Atlanta’s bullpen has been a bit shaky lately as well, which makes this stack all the more enticing.


Favorite Prop Bet

Colorado Rockies OVER 6.5 runs (+106)

I usually hate taking team totals over 5.5 runs. To realistically project a team to score at least six runs is tough. Now, here I am taking the over on a 6.5 total. What could go wrong!? Truly, this is such a great spot for the Rockies and I have no problem taking the over here. They smash lefties at home and face a really poor bullpen once they knock out Means. The fact that you get plus money on this makes it all the better.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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