Wednesday night features an eight-game slate of baseball starting at 7:05 p.m. ET. We’ve been spoiled lately with good pitching pools and clear weather, and tonight is no different. Let’s jump into all the information you’ll need for tonight and as always, you can reach me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Largest FavoriteNote: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Patrick Corbin, $10,000, WAS (-165) vs. NYM (+143) — We have to talk to whoever makes the MLB schedule, as this already will be the third time Corbin faces the Mets. In the two prior starts, Corbin has gone 12 innings, allowing five runs, 13 hits and 13 strikeouts. This is a really interesting spot for Corbin because offensively, the Mets have done well against lefties with a .339 wOBA (10th) and a .173 ISO (17th).
However, what makes Corbin an attractive option is the 28.3 K% the Mets have against lefties, which is the third highest in the league. The cherry on top for taking Corbin is his numbers at home. Through 25 2/3 innings, Corbin has a .264 wOBA with a 3.71 xFIP. I like him a lot tonight and will have a fair amount of shares in my lineups.
NOTE: The Astros-Tigers game was not listed on DK Sportsbook at the time of publication.
Highest TotalSTL (+123) at ATL (-139) 9.5 runs — Michael Wacha ($6,700) is coming off poor back-to-back starts in which he’s allowed nine runs, 15 hits and six strikeouts through 10 2/3 innings. He draws a tough matchup against the Braves, who sport a .330 wOBA, a .174 ISO and a 21.5 K% against righties. This is not a spot where I’d be looking to take Wacha in any format, and a Braves stack is a viable play.
It’s a small sample, but in his first two starts in May, Wacha has allowed a 45% hard-hit rate to go with a 5.66 xFIP. I mean, I don’t know how many more ways I can explain why Wacha is a horrible play tonight. Also, do me a favor and log onto the DraftKings website on your desktop or mobile device. Then, click on Wacha and open up his player page. Why does he look like he’s 45 years old when he’s actually 27?
Weather ConcernsNo weather concerns for tonight!
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
|Worst vs. LHB||wOBA||xFIP||Best vs. LHB||wOBA||xFIP|
|Jorge Lopez||.432||4.33||Justin Verlander||.227||2.68|
|Kenta Maeda||.355||5.02||Patrick Corbin||.258||3.49|
|Jose Urena||.353||5.60||Mike Soroka||.274||3.34|
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
|Worst vs. RHB||wOBA||xFIP||Best vs. RHB||wOBA||xFIP|
|Michael Wacha||.374||4.76||Wilmer Font||.216||4.30|
|Jose Urena||.346||3.41||Mike Soroka||.222||3.60|
|Jorge Lopez||.328||4.76||Matt Strahm||.259||4.12|
Top Hard-Hit%This section will populate with the hitters that have the top hard-hit% over the past seven days. This percentage can help distinguish who is swinging the bat well over the course of the past week. I’ll be updating this daily so we have a consistent flow of names in this section.
Pitcher to Build AroundJustin Verlander, HOU at DET, $11,000 — As stated above, this game was not listed on the DraftKings Sportsbook as of writing. But this is a smash spot for Verlander against a team that carries the highest K% in the league at 25.9%. Not to mention, the Tigers have a .292 wOBA and a .150 ISO against righties. I mean, do I really need to convince you to play Verlander?
Heavy Hitter to Pay ForJoey Gallo, TEX at KC, $5,400 — I’m usually hesitant writing up Gallo on a particular night because he’s the true definition of a boom-or-bust option. In this matchup against Jorge Lopez ($5,000), though, the probability of the “boom” feels quite high. Lopez’s splits are horrific on both sides of the plate, but lefties have tagged him with a .432 wOBA, a 4.33 xFIP and six of the 10 home runs he’s allowed. Against righties, Gallo has a .425 wOBA with a .388 ISO and a 67.4% hard-hit rate. I’m paying up for the home run ball in this spot.
Save Big by Drafting…Eric Hosmer, SD at LAD, $3,500 — I’m not crazy about taking Hosmer on a normal basis, but if we’re interested in Verlander and Gallo, we need to save some salary. To his credit, Hosmer has a .337 wOBA, a .198 ISO and six home runs against righties so far this season. He’ll be taking on Kenta Maeda ($9,200), who has a .355 wOBA, a 5.02 xFIP and a 36.1% hard-hit rate allowed to lefties. For the salary you’ll save and the matchup, it’s a spot worthy of paying down at first base.
Stack Em UpTEX at KC (Jorge Lopez) — For the same reasons you’d want to take Gallo, you can make the case to stack the Rangers. Lopez’s splits against lefties aren’t the only ugly numbers he has, as righties have teed off on him to the tune of a .328 wOBA, a 4.76 xFIP and four home runs. The Rangers have a 4.5 implied team total and should threaten the over with ease.
Favorite Prop Bet
Detroit Tigers under 3.5 runs (-137)In a start against Verlander, it’s hard to think the Tigers could score four runs. Of the nine starts Verlander has made, he’s allowed no more than one run in six of them. As we went over earlier, the Tigers aren’t hitting right-handed pitching and instead are helping pad strikeout totals to opposing pitchers. With the odds set the way they are, this ends up being my favorite bet on this slate.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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