Almost every team is in action tonight as the MLB features a 14-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET. Even with a number of people to choose from, the selection of pitching is fairly weak overall, which I’ll discuss in this piece. Let’s get into all the information for this slate and as always, you can reach me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.
Largest FavoriteNote: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Gerrit Cole, $12,200 HOU (-360) vs. BAL (+300) — Cole and the Astros are as big of favorites as you can get on this 14-game slate. They’ll be hosting the Orioles in Houston for a three-game weekend series. Cole has hit a couple of bumps in the road as of late, averaging 19.1 DKFP over his past three starts. Even with that in mind, Cole still owns the highest K% in the league at 37.4 and will face an Orioles club that has a 23.2 K%, which ranks 11th in the league. This should be a fantastic spot for the Astros’ ace, as the Orioles have just a .312 wOBA and a .159 ISO on the road. It’s going to be tough to pay up for Cole on this slate, but I think it will be worth it if you can make it work.
Highest TotalOAK (-104) at TEX (-110) 10.5 runs — The Rangers are the slightest of slight favorites in this game as they take on Brian Anderson ($6,000). Anderson has been nursing a mild oblique injury, which could make him even more vulnerable than usual. At home against lefties, the Rangers sport a .332 wOBA with a .192 ISO. I imagine the Rangers will be a popular stacking option on this slate, as they’re averaging just less than six runs per game at Globe Life Park. Anderson’s numbers overall aren’t terrible, but his 4.72 xFIP on the road raises some eyebrows. When the numbers were first released, the Rangers had a team total of 4.5 runs, but that could creep up to five as the day goes on.
Weather ConcernsNo weather concerns!
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
|Worst vs. LHB||wOBA||xFIP||Best vs. LHB||wOBA||xFIP|
|Nick Margevicius||.451||6.04||Domingo German||.266||3.27|
|Antonio Senzatela||.412||5.16||Matthew Boyd||.270||2.47|
|Ivan Nova||.409||4.95||Michael Pineda||.273||4.75|
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
|Worst vs. RHB||wOBA||xFIP||Best vs. RHB||wOBA||xFIP|
|Drew Pomeranz||.435||5.23||Mike Soroka||.179||3.61|
|Ivan Nova||.371||4.70||Brandon Woodruff||.236||3.05|
|Michael Pineda||.369||4.83||Marcus Stroman||.261||4.06|
Top Hard-Hit%This section will populate with the hitters that have the top hard-hit% over the past seven days. This percentage can help distinguish who is swinging the bat well over the course of the past week. I’ll be updating this daily so we have a consistent flow of names in this section.
|Jackie Bradley Jr||BOS||$3300||77.8%|
Pitcher to Build AroundGerrit Cole, HOU vs. BAL, $12,200 — While it’s unfortunate getting Cole in your lineup forces you to pay a premium, no one else on this slate carries the upside he does. We have some guys in good matchups like Domingo German ($9,500) against the Indians and Mike Soroka ($11,600) against the Marlins, but none of these guys can come close to the type of production Cole can produce. For a 14-game slate, the pitching selection isn’t that great overall. Like I said earlier, I can’t blame you if you can’t afford to get Cole in your lineup, but if he goes off against this team, it’ll be hard to find that cheaper upside to come close to matching what he is capable of.
Heavy Hitter to Pay ForBryce Harper, PHI vs. CIN, $4,700 — I absolutely love this spot for Harper, who has been hitting the ball well as of late. Tonight he’ll draw a matchup against Tyler Mahle ($7,300), who struggles against lefties. When facing them on the road, Mahle is allowing a .399 wOBA with a 4.40 xFIP and five of his 11 home runs allowed. As for Harper, he has a .343 wOBA and a .269 ISO with four of his 11 home runs at Citizens Bank Park.
Save Big by Drafting…Vladimir Guerrero Jr., TOR vs. ARI, $3,900 — I don’t know why Guerrero continues to be as cheap as he is, but I happily will take the discount. The Blue Jays will be hosting the Diamondbacks this weekend for some interleague action at the Rogers Centre. Merrill Kelly ($8,400) will be taking the mound for the D-Backs and brings with him some horrific road numbers. Against righties on the road, Kelly is allowing a .440 wOBA with a 6.54 xFIP and four of the 10 home runs he’s allowed.
Stack Em UpLAD at SF (Drew Pomeranz) — I don’t know how Pomeranz ($6,700) still is being used as a starter. Even after moving to the NL West, which is nothing but comfy and cozy ballparks for pitchers, he continues to get smashed each time he takes the mound. At Oracle Park, Pomeranz somehow has a .381 wOBA with a 4.35 xFIP and three of the 11 home runs he’s allowed. The Dodgers are a team to fear against lefties and have a .336 wOBA with a .190 ISO. I feel like the Dodgers are a can’t-miss stack.
Favorite Prop Bet
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-139)
I rarely take the run line in baseball, however, the Dodgers should dominate this game. The money line, as you’d expect, is huge at -235. That’s a bit too much juice for me. Instead, I happily will take the Dodgers to win by 1.5 or more runs at a much friendlier -139. If this bet doesn’t hit, expect to never see a run line bet on here AGAIN!!!!
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