MLB-Cheat-Sheet

After a big afternoon slate today, Thursday night brings a short, five-game slate starting at 7:07 p.m. ET. Don’t be fooled by the size of the slate, we have some really good pitching options to choose from including a bounce-back spot for Patrick Corbin. Let’s get into all the information for tonight and as always, you can reach me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Largest Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

J.A. Happ, $7,800 NYY (-177) vs. TOR (+155) — I have a funny feeling Happ and the Yankees being favored isn’t because of Happ taking the mound as it’s more of how Edwin Jackson ($5,000) is likely to implode, again. To be fair, Happ has looked good in his last two starts against the Royals and Red Sox, tossing 11 innings and allowing four runs on seven hits while striking out 15. The Blue Jays are nothing special against lefties and have a .303 wOBA with a .179 ISO and a 23.4 K%. Happ is borderline for me tonight as it is a small slate and his $7,800 salary is affordable. We’ve just seen too many instances where he hasn’t pitched well and it’s a big reason why he’s only averaging 12 DKFP on the season. All that aside, this should be a matchup he can handle and would imagine he’s going to be a popular SP2 option.

Highest Total

BAL (+148) vs. TEX (-167) 11 runs — I think it’s safe to say that Globe Life Park has quickly become the Coors Field of the American League, as they continuously posting these massive run totals. To be fair, when you have a game being pitched by David Hess ($4,200) and Ariel Jurado ($6,400) that’ll happen anywhere. The Rangers are heavily favored here and have a team total of 5.5 runs. Hess has been nothing less than a disaster on the mound this season and has already allowed 19 home runs, nine of which have come on the road. His road numbers overall are terrible, as he sports a .346 wOBA with a 5.01 xFIP. Of course, the Orioles also have one of the worst bullpens in the league, which is just ANOTHER reason to like the Rangers in this game. Jurado hasn’t been anything special either so I wouldn’t hate a game stack if you wanted to do so. Righties have tagged him with a .337 wOBA and a 3.17 xFIP in a very small sample.

Weather Concerns

BAL @ TEX (Globe Life Park) – Slight chance for an in-game delay but should be nothing more than that. Nothing to worry about here but always make sure to check before lineups lock.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHBwOBAxFIPBest vs. LHBwOBAxFIP
Trevor Bauer.3475.75Joey Lucchesi.2022.20
David Hess.3344.79Ariel Jurado.2275.06
Mike Fiers.3254.99Patrick Corbin.2463.24

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHBwOBAxFIPBest vs. RHBwOBAxFIP
David Hess.4226.30Trevor Bauer.2543.72
J.A. Happ.3414.86Jose Berrios..2823.83
Ariel Jurado.3373.17Mike Fiers.2875.81

Top Hard-Hit%

This section will populate with the hitters that have the top hard-hit% over the last seven days. This percentage can help distinguish who is swinging the bat well over the course of the past week. I’ll be updating this daily so we have a consistent flow of names in this section.

NameTeamSalaryHard-Hit%
Hunter RenfroeSDP$4,70080%
Cavan BiggioTOR$3,40077.8%
Anthony RendonWAS$5,70073.3%
Danny SantanaTEX$5,10071.4%
Wil MyersSDP$3,80070%


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Patrick Corbin, WAS vs. CIN, $10,300 — If you took Corbin in his last start, you may still be recovering from his horrific outing against the Reds. Through 2 2/3 innings, Corbin allowed eight runs (six earned) on 11 hits with only two strikeouts for -8.6 DKFP. Tonight he’s in a much better stadium at Petco Park and taking on the Padres. While this team does hit for a lot of power against lefties with a .203 ISO, they only have a .304 wOBA and a 26.6 K%, which is the fourth highest in the league. With the strikeout upside you’re getting and a discount on Corbin, who was $11,200 in his last start, I think you pay up on this slate.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Eddie Rosario, MIN vs. CLE, $5,200 — Last season, it rarely crossed your mind to take opposing hitters against Trevor Bauer ($9,400). This year has been a different story, especially when it comes to lefties. Coming into this start, Bauer has a .347 wOBA with a 5.75 xFIP and five of his 10 home runs allowed to lefties on the season. Meanwhile, Rosario continues to hit everything under the sun and against righties on the road has a .405 wOBA with a .320 ISO with nine of his 18 home runs.

Save Big by Drafting…

Shohei Ohtani, LAA vs. OAK, $3,900 — The buzz hasn’t really surrounded Ohtani like it did last season. Sure, that was his debut year and his was pulling double duty on the mound and at the plate. This year, he’s strictly hitting and starting to get into a groove. He’s posted at least 19 DKFP and a home runs in three of his last five games while knocking in nine. Tonight he’ll face Mike Fiers ($6,900), who has a .325 wOBA, five of his 13 home runs and a 4.99 xFIP against lefties. At $3,900, Ohtani is a steal in this matchup.

Stack Em Up

TEX vs. BAL (David Hess) – I couldn’t put any other team here. Hess and the entire Baltimore pitching staff is just THAT bad. I don’t care if this is the chalk play, I don’t care if the ownership is high. The Rangers should knock Hess out of this game early and then get to feast even more against the 29th ranked bullpen in the league. Too much to like in this game to ignore.


Favorite Prop Bet

Texas Rangers score first and win (+163)

Getting plus money on this feel a little bit like Christmas. To be fair, both the Rangers and Orioles are the best teams to score in the first inning, ranked second and third, respectively. With that in mind, the top of the Baltimore lineup is much stronger against lefties than they are righties, so as long as Jurado can make it through them, I feel confident the Rangers can strike first. As far as winning, I mean, is the Baltimore pitching staff going to shut them down?

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